Noblesville
Boys - Girls
2009 - 2010 - 2011
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State Rank #2
Carmel Semi-State Rank #2
Brebeuf Jesuit Regional Rank #1
Noblesville Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 2nd place at State Finals
State Champion 1.4%
Top 5 at State Finals 70.5%
Top 10 at State Finals 88.7%
Advance to State Finals 89.5%
Advance to Semi-State 90.3%
Advance to Regional 99.5%

RankNameGradeRating
32  Sam Roudebush 11 16:09
33  Ryan Ferguson 12 16:09
53  Christian Bowers 12 16:16
58  Collin Ginebaugh 12 16:20
Neal Tardy 12 16:47
Jacob Small 12 17:13
Jacob Overton 9 17:31
Richard Sellers 12 17:56




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 89.5% 3.9 190 1.4 28.9 18.2 13.0 9.0 6.9 5.0 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Semi-State 90.3% 3.4 109 1.7 30.3 20.8 15.3 12.8 8.7 0.8
Regionals 99.5% 2.7 93 35.6 20.8 15.3 10.8 7.8 4.9 2.8 1.5 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.8 66 49.8 27.9 14.3 5.5 2.0 0.5 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sam Roudebush 89.5% 33.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.5 0.2% 25.2%
Ryan Ferguson 89.6% 34.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 0.3% 24.6%
Christian Bowers 89.5% 43.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.0% 8.7%
Collin Ginebaugh 89.5% 50.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0% 3.5%
Neal Tardy 89.5% 98.1 0.0% 0.0%
Jacob Small 89.5% 137.0 0.0% 0.0%
Jacob Overton 89.5% 160.8 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sam Roudebush 91.7% 18.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.5 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.2 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.9 14.4% 70.0%
Ryan Ferguson 91.3% 19.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.3 4.3 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.9 5.3 4.7 4.2 4.2 10.8% 68.9%
Christian Bowers 90.3% 23.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.5 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.4 5.6 5.0 0.7% 41.8%
Collin Ginebaugh 90.3% 26.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.9 3.1 3.9 4.2 4.6 5.5 0.2% 25.8%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sam Roudebush 99.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.2 6.4 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.5 6.7 6.8 6.0 6.2 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.4 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.0 36.7% 95.9%
Ryan Ferguson 99.6% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.0 5.8 6.8 7.5 7.1 7.6 7.2 7.1 6.6 5.3 5.2 4.4 4.0 3.4 3.0 2.4 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.7 12.2% 96.2%
Christian Bowers 99.5% 16.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.8 3.1 4.5 5.1 5.3 5.1 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.3 5.6 5.8 5.0 5.0 4.2 3.3 2.7 2.4 4.1% 85.9%
Collin Ginebaugh 99.5% 19.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.3 5.2 5.0 5.6 6.0 5.8 6.2 5.8 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1 6.1% 74.9%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sam Roudebush 6.6 0.1 1.6 5.1 10.8 12.4 12.7 11.6 10.3 9.0 7.2 5.2 4.1 2.8 2.0 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1
Ryan Ferguson 6.7 0.2 1.4 4.5 10.2 12.3 12.4 12.3 10.5 8.5 7.2 5.8 4.0 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Christian Bowers 9.7 0.2 1.2 2.5 4.6 7.1 8.4 9.3 9.9 9.9 9.0 7.8 7.1 5.3 3.9 3.3 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2
Collin Ginebaugh 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.2 6.7 7.8 9.2 9.2 8.9 8.3 6.9 6.5 4.9 4.0 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.9