Warsaw
Boys - Girls
2010 - 2011 - 2012
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State Rank #16
New Haven Semi-State Rank #5
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #3
Elkhart Central Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 14th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.2%
Top 10 at State Finals 4.9%
Advance to State Finals 78.3%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%

RankNameGradeRating
37  Jacob Poyner 11 16:08
132  Ellis Coon 10 16:43
Robert Murphy 11 16:55
Ismael Calderon 10 16:57
Cam Hoskins 9 17:16
Brysten James 11 17:16
Michael Smolen 12 17:17
Michael Compton 9 17:18
Tyler Houvener 10 17:34
Daniel Messenger 9 17:44
Jacob DeBoest 9 18:07
DateRace Rating
08/20 Huntington North Invitational 355
08/27 DeKalb Classic 331
08/30 Warsaw Tiger Invitational 317
09/17 New Prairie Invitational (AAA)
09/24 Culver Invitational (Open) 436
09/24 Culver Invitational (Fr/So) 476
10/11 Elkhart Central Sectional 333
10/15 Elkhart Central Regional 366
10/22 New Haven Semi-State 316
10/29 State Finals 373




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 78.3% 14.5 377 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 2.2 3.5 6.4 12.1 13.9 12.6 9.2 6.7 4.2 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Semi-State 100.0% 5.4 171 0.7 3.4 8.4 17.8 24.6 23.5 11.7 5.4 2.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.9 70 1.3 11.6 83.6 3.2 0.3 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 32 97.9 2.0 0.2



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jacob Poyner 92.8% 34.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 66.6% 89.7%
Ellis Coon 78.3% 91.0 0.0% 3.4%
Robert Murphy 78.3% 112.4 0.0% 0.2%
Ismael Calderon 78.3% 115.0 0.0% 0.1%
Cam Hoskins 78.3% 145.5 0.0% 0.0%
Brysten James 78.3% 146.1 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Smolen 78.3% 147.7 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jacob Poyner 100% 6.8 1.4 4.0 8.5 9.4 9.5 9.7 8.8 7.6 6.6 5.9 5.3 3.9 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 100.0% 100.0%
Ellis Coon 100.0% 32.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.4 0.0% 80.8%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jacob Poyner 100% 2.9 1.9 9.2 43.5 19.2 10.8 8.5 3.5 2.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Ellis Coon 100% 10.8 0.0 0.9 1.7 3.0 5.9 7.4 11.6 11.1 10.4 9.1 7.8 6.7 5.3 4.6 3.8 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jacob Poyner 1.0 98.0 1.6 0.3 0.1
Ellis Coon 2.9 0.0 32.3 20.0 15.7 12.4 8.0 4.9 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0