American Athletic
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Wichita St. 27%   12   Likely Out 1 - 1 0 - 0 +7.2 82 B- +4 88 B- +3 80 +4 127 0 1
Memphis 27%   Likely Out 2 - 1 0 - 0 +6.8 86 B+ +7 45 C +0 153 +20 11 0 1
South Florida 16%   Likely Out 1 - 2 0 - 0 +6.0 92 B +6 63 C +0 144 -6 265 0 1
Tulsa 13%   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +4.5 108 B- +4 87 C +1 130 +5 113 0 1
North Texas 10%   Likely Out 1 - 1 0 - 0 +3.8 111 C +0 161 B- +4 75 +4 134 0 1
Charlotte 7%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 +2.4 123 C+ +2 119 C +1 133 +4 129 0 1
Florida Atlantic 4%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 +0.9 134 C+ +2 121 C- -1 185 +3 155 0 1
UAB 4%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 +0.6 138 C +1 143 C +0 166 -1 217 0 1
Temple 2%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -1.6 172 C +0 170 C- -1 192 -8 286 0 1
Tulane 2%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 -1.7 177 C+ +2 130 D+ -3 281 -6 266 0 1
East Carolina 2%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 -1.8 181 C- -2 231 C +1 135 -3 233 0 1
Texas San Antonio 1%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 -3.1 207 C- -1 195 C- -2 235 +3 160 0 1
Rice 0%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -5.7 261 C- -3 242 D+ -3 271 -20 359 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 9 123 Charlotte 62 81 Seton Hall 68   
261 Rice 73 74 Stanford 91   
357 Florida A&M 64 138 UAB 92   
Tue, Nov 10 86 Memphis 81 16 Vanderbilt 105   
285 Nicholls St. 63 177 Tulane 77   
Wed, Nov 11 126 Saint Joseph's 83 92 South Florida 80   
111 North Texas 71 78 Santa Clara 76   
119 College of Charleston 91 172 Temple 81   
279 Oral Roberts 71 108 Tulsa 80   
134 Florida Atlantic 95 173 William & Mary 90   
158 Seattle 59 207 Texas San Antonio 86   
181 East Carolina 72 284 N.C. A&T 67   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 13 211 Appalachian St. 58 123 Charlotte 67 80%   
Sat, Nov 14 179 Austin Peay 68 82 Wichita St. 80 87%   
100 Akron 81 177 Tulane 71 83%   
111 North Texas 71 219 South Alabama 61 84%   
213 Jacksonville St. 71 138 UAB 72 55%   
261 Rice 64 129 Stephen F. Austin 74 82%   
353 Coppin St. 66 92 South Florida 88 97%   
345 Delaware St. 64 181 East Carolina 77 88%   
Sun, Nov 15 15 Louisville 85 86 Memphis 77 78%   
116 Texas St. 75 207 Texas San Antonio 71 64%   
174 La Salle 75 172 Temple 72 61%   
Mon, Nov 16 108 Tulsa 79 120 Western Kentucky 74 68%   
Tue, Nov 17 123 Charlotte 62 107 Davidson 67 69%   
92 South Florida 87 208 Tennessee St. 75 87%   
182 Florida International 76 138 UAB 81 70%   
197 TX A&M Corpus Christi 68 261 Rice 67 50%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Wichita St. 3 32% 21% 9% 3% 32 18 14 11 7 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0
Memphis 4 28% 19% 7% 2% 28 18 15 11 8 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 0
South Florida 4 21% 12% 6% 2% 21 17 14 11 9 8 6 4 3 3 1 1 0
Tulsa 5 14% 7% 5% 2% 14 15 13 11 11 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 1
North Texas 5 11% 6% 3% 2% 11 13 13 12 10 10 8 7 6 4 3 2 1
Charlotte 6 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 9 9 10 11 10 9 9 7 6 4 3
Florida Atlantic 7 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 6 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 6 4
UAB 7 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 6 7 9 9 9 9 10 10 8 8 6 4
Temple 8 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 4 5 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 7
East Carolina 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 6 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9
Tulane 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 11 12 11 10 9
Texas San Antonio 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 5 5 7 8 10 9 12 13 13 12
Rice 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 7 7 9 14 20 27

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wichita St. 12 - 6 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 11 14 16 15 12 9 5 2 0
Memphis 12 - 6 19 - 12 0 0 1 2 3 4 9 12 13 15 15 12 8 4 1 0
South Florida 11 - 7 19 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 16 15 13 9 6 2 1 0
Tulsa 10 - 8 19 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 13 11 7 3 1 0 0
North Texas 10 - 8 18 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 13 15 14 13 9 6 2 1 0 0
Charlotte 9 - 9 17 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 5 8 12 13 15 14 12 8 6 3 1 0 0
Florida Atlantic 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 1 4 7 10 12 14 14 12 10 7 4 3 1 0 0
UAB 9 - 9 16 - 15 0 0 0 2 4 6 10 12 14 15 13 9 7 4 2 1 0 0
Temple 8 - 10 12 - 16 0 0 1 3 5 9 13 14 14 13 11 8 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
East Carolina 8 - 10 14 - 14 0 0 2 3 7 9 13 14 14 12 10 7 4 3 1 0 0 0
Tulane 7 - 11 15 - 16 0 0 1 4 7 11 13 15 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Texas San Antonio 7 - 11 13 - 17 0 1 3 5 9 13 14 15 13 11 7 5 2 1 0 0
Rice 6 - 12 10 - 20 1 3 7 12 15 16 14 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Wichita St. 27% 22% 7% 12 Likely Out 1 1 2 2 15 5 73
Memphis 27% 20% 9% Likely Out 1 3 3 16 3 73
South Florida 16% 15% 1% Likely Out 1 8 6 1 84
Tulsa 13% 11% 1% Likely Out 6 5 1 87
North Texas 10% 9% 1% Likely Out 4 4 1 90
Charlotte 7% 7% 0% Negligible 3 3 1 93
Florida Atlantic 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 0 96
UAB 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 0 96
Temple 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 98
Tulane 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 0 98
East Carolina 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 0 98
Texas San Antonio 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 99
Rice 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.2 85 15 0 0
1st Round 99% 1.1 1 90 9 0
2nd Round 23% 0.2 77 23 1
Sweet Sixteen 8% 0.1 92 8 0
Elite Eight 2% 0.0 98 2
Final Four 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wichita St. 27% 4% 26% 7% 3% 1%
Memphis 27% 6% 24% 6% 2%
South Florida 16% 1% 16% 4% 1%
Tulsa 13% 1% 12% 3% 1%
North Texas 10% 1% 10% 2% 1%
Charlotte 7% 7% 1%
Florida Atlantic 4% 4% 1%
UAB 4% 4% 1%
Temple 2% 2%
Tulane 2% 2%
East Carolina 2% 2%
Texas San Antonio 1% 1%
Rice 0%