Preseason Rankings
American Athletic
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Wichita St. 30%   12   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.0 77 B- +4 79 B- +3 84 0 1 0 1
South Florida 15%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.6 93 B- +4 80 C+ +2 103 0 1 0 1
Memphis 19%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.1 97 B- +4 85 C+ +2 108 0 1 0 1
Tulsa 16%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.5 102 B- +3 93 C+ +2 109 0 1 0 1
North Texas 10%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.4 109 C +0 157 B +3 76 0 1 0 1
Florida Atlantic 7%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.6 116 C+ +1 123 C+ +1 116 0 1 0 1
Temple 9%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.5 117 C+ +2 104 C +0 150 0 1 0 1
UAB 9%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.2 122 C+ +2 120 C +1 142 0 1 0 1
Charlotte 5%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.6 131 C+ +1 122 C +0 152 0 1 0 1
Tulane 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -0.2 156 C+ +1 131 C- -1 205 0 1 0 1
East Carolina 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.1 172 C -1 173 C -1 177 0 1 0 1
Texas San Antonio 0%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.4 243 C- -1 204 D+ -3 282 0 1 0 1
Rice 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.6 246 C- -2 240 D+ -2 251 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Wichita St. 3 37% 26% 8% 3% 37 20 13 9 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0
Tulsa 4 29% 19% 7% 2% 29 18 13 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 0
Temple 5 15% 9% 4% 2% 15 15 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Memphis 5 8% 4% 3% 2% 8 13 13 12 12 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 1
UAB 5 11% 6% 3% 1% 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 3 2
North Texas 6 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2
Charlotte 6 9% 5% 2% 1% 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 3
Tulane 7 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 6 4
South Florida 7 1% 0% 1% 1% 1 4 6 8 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 2
East Carolina 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 5 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 9 7
Florida Atlantic 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 3 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 11 10 9 4
Rice 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 8 10 11 14 15 17
Texas San Antonio 11 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 5 7 10 15 22 33

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wichita St. 12 - 6 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 15 14 11 8 4 2 0
Tulsa 11 - 8 19 - 12 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 12 14 13 12 9 6 3 1 0
Temple 10 - 8 16 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
Memphis 9 - 6 15 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 17 17 13 9 5 2 0
UAB 9 - 9 17 - 14 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 12 14 14 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
North Texas 9 - 7 17 - 11 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 15 15 14 11 8 4 2 1 0
Charlotte 9 - 10 17 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 13 13 12 9 7 4 2 1 1 0 0
Tulane 8 - 10 16 - 15 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
South Florida 8 - 5 16 - 10 0 0 1 2 5 9 13 17 18 15 11 6 2 0
East Carolina 7 - 10 13 - 13 0 1 2 5 8 12 14 14 14 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Florida Atlantic 7 - 6 14 - 10 0 1 2 4 8 12 16 17 16 12 8 4 2 0
Rice 6 - 12 11 - 19 1 2 6 10 14 15 15 12 10 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Texas San Antonio 4 - 10 10 - 16 1 6 12 17 19 17 13 8 5 2 1 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Wichita St. 30% 22% 11% 12 Likely Out 1 1 1 2 3 3 14 3 70
South Florida 15% 11% 5% Likely Out 1 1 2 1 7 2 85
Memphis 19% 14% 6% Likely Out 1 1 2 2 9 2 81
Tulsa 16% 13% 3% Likely Out 1 1 1 8 4 1 84
North Texas 10% 8% 2% Likely Out 1 0 4 3 1 90
Florida Atlantic 7% 5% 1% Likely Out 1 3 2 1 93
Temple 9% 8% 2% Likely Out 0 4 3 1 91
UAB 9% 7% 1% Likely Out 0 0 3 3 1 91
Charlotte 5% 5% 1% Likely Out 2 2 1 0 95
Tulane 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 0 97
East Carolina 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 98
Texas San Antonio 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100
Rice 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.3 75 23 2 0
1st Round 99% 1.2 1 83 16 1
2nd Round 31% 0.3 69 29 2 0
Sweet Sixteen 10% 0.1 90 10 0
Elite Eight 3% 0.0 97 3 0
Final Four 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wichita St. 30% 5% 28% 10% 4% 1% 1%
South Florida 15% 3% 14% 4% 1%
Memphis 19% 4% 17% 5% 2%
Tulsa 16% 2% 15% 4% 1%
North Texas 10% 1% 9% 2% 1%
Florida Atlantic 7% 1% 6% 1%
Temple 9% 1% 9% 2% 1%
UAB 9% 1% 8% 2% 1%
Charlotte 5% 1% 5% 1%
Tulane 3% 3% 1%
East Carolina 2% 2%
Texas San Antonio 0%
Rice 1% 1%