Atlantic Sun
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Queens 22%   15   Negligible 2 - 2 0 - 0 -2.2 189 B- +4 91 D- -6 353 +9 54 0 1
Lipscomb 21%   Negligible 2 - 2 0 - 0 -2.4 193 C +0 166 D+ -2 246 -1 213 0 1
Florida Gulf Coast 19%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -2.8 197 C -1 183 C- -2 235 -2 226 0 1
Jacksonville 20%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -3.2 206 C- -1 194 C- -2 239 +8 61 0 1
Bellarmine 6%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -7.3 286 C -1 179 F+ -7 357 -1 219 0 1
Stetson 8%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -7.5 288 C- -2 231 D- -5 342 -1 220 0 1
North Florida 5%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -8.7 306 D+ -4 292 D -4 312 +6 88 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sat, Nov 7 286 Bellarmine 73 112 Miami (OH) 80   
193 Lipscomb 78 274 SIU Edwardsville 77   
Mon, Nov 9 197 Florida Gulf Coast 72 59 Georgia 80   
19 Miami (FL) 89 306 North Florida 51   
206 Jacksonville 79 285 UMKC 61   
Tue, Nov 10 23 BYU 98 189 Queens 82   
141 Belmont 75 193 Lipscomb 88   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 12 184 Howard 78 288 Stetson 69 79%   
Fri, Nov 13 197 Florida Gulf Coast 78 182 Florida International 75 58%   
Sat, Nov 14 193 Lipscomb 75 151 Western Carolina 80 69%   
189 Queens 89 277 Wofford 82 76%   
286 Bellarmine 76 236 Northern Illinois 75 50%   
306 North Florida 78 335 The Citadel 73 69%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Queens 3 31% 19% 9% 3% 31 22 17 13 9 6 3
Lipscomb 3 29% 17% 9% 3% 29 22 17 13 9 6 3
Jacksonville 3 26% 16% 8% 3% 26 20 17 14 11 7 4
Florida Gulf Coast 3 25% 15% 7% 3% 25 20 17 14 11 8 5
Stetson 4 9% 5% 3% 2% 9 12 14 16 17 17 14
Bellarmine 5 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 9 12 14 18 20 21
North Florida 5 4% 2% 2% 1% 4 7 10 14 18 22 26

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Queens 7 - 5 18 - 14 0 0 1 2 7 11 16 19 18 14 8 3 0
Lipscomb 7 - 5 16 - 14 0 0 1 3 7 12 17 19 18 13 7 3 1
Jacksonville 7 - 5 12 - 15 0 0 1 4 8 13 17 18 17 12 7 2 0
Florida Gulf Coast 7 - 5 15 - 14 0 1 2 4 9 13 17 18 16 11 6 2 0
Stetson 5 - 7 9 - 19 0 2 6 11 17 19 18 13 8 4 2 0 0
Bellarmine 5 - 7 11 - 18 1 4 9 15 19 19 15 10 6 2 1 0 0
North Florida 4 - 8 11 - 18 1 5 11 17 20 18 14 8 4 2 1 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Queens 22% 22% 0% 15 Negligible 1 4 12 5 78
Lipscomb 21% 21% 0% Negligible 3 11 7 79
Florida Gulf Coast 19% 19% 0% Negligible 2 8 8 81
Jacksonville 20% 20% 0% Negligible 1 3 10 7 80
Bellarmine 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 5 94
Stetson 8% 8% 0% Negligible 2 6 92
North Florida 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 4 95

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100
1st Round 62% 0.6 38 62
2nd Round 3% 0.0 97 3
Sweet Sixteen 0% 0.0 100 0
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Queens 22% 14% 15% 1%
Lipscomb 21% 15% 13% 1%
Florida Gulf Coast 19% 14% 12%
Jacksonville 20% 14% 13% 1%
Bellarmine 6% 6% 3%
Stetson 8% 8% 4%
North Florida 5% 5% 2%