Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Queens 24%   16   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.0 187 C+ +1 133 D+ -3 277 0 1 0 1
Lipscomb 24%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.0 189 C +0 170 C- -2 221 0 1 0 1
Jacksonville 17%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.3 237 C- -1 200 D+ -3 280 0 1 0 1
Florida Gulf Coast 11%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.5 265 D+ -4 275 C- -2 235 0 1 0 1
Stetson 12%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.4 280 C- -2 244 D -4 318 0 1 0 1
Bellarmine 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.4 295 C -1 188 F+ -7 361 0 1 0 1
North Florida 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -9.1 324 D+ -3 258 F+ -6 359 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Queens 3 35% 22% 9% 4% 35 22 16 11 8 5 3
Lipscomb 3 33% 21% 9% 3% 33 22 16 12 9 6 3
Jacksonville 3 21% 12% 6% 3% 21 19 18 15 12 9 6
Stetson 4 15% 8% 5% 2% 15 16 17 16 15 12 9
Florida Gulf Coast 4 13% 7% 4% 2% 13 15 16 16 15 13 12
Bellarmine 5 8% 4% 2% 2% 8 10 12 14 17 19 19
North Florida 5 6% 2% 2% 1% 6 8 11 14 17 20 24

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Queens 7 - 5 17 - 15 0 0 1 3 6 10 15 18 18 15 9 4 1
Lipscomb 7 - 5 16 - 14 0 0 1 3 6 11 15 19 18 14 8 4 1
Jacksonville 6 - 6 12 - 15 0 0 2 6 10 14 18 18 14 9 5 2 0
Stetson 6 - 6 10 - 18 0 1 3 8 13 17 19 17 12 6 3 1 0
Florida Gulf Coast 6 - 6 12 - 17 0 2 4 9 14 18 18 15 11 6 3 1 0
Bellarmine 5 - 7 11 - 17 1 3 8 14 18 18 16 11 7 3 1 0 0
North Florida 5 - 7 10 - 19 1 4 9 16 19 18 15 10 5 2 1 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Queens 24% 24% 0% 16 Negligible 1 4 11 8 76
Lipscomb 24% 24% 0% Negligible 1 3 11 9 76
Jacksonville 17% 17% 0% Negligible 2 7 8 83
Florida Gulf Coast 11% 11% 0% Negligible 3 8 89
Stetson 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 4 8 88
Bellarmine 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 5 94
North Florida 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 5 95

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100
1st Round 62% 0.6 38 62
2nd Round 4% 0.0 96 4
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Queens 24% 16% 16% 1%
Lipscomb 24% 16% 16% 1%
Jacksonville 17% 13% 10% 1%
Florida Gulf Coast 11% 10% 7%
Stetson 12% 11% 7%
Bellarmine 6% 6% 3%
North Florida 5% 5% 2%