Big 12
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Kansas 99%   2   Likely In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +20.5 5 A +10 7 A+ +10 5 +11 29 0 1
Houston 97%   2   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +20.1 6 A- +9 23 A+ +11 2 +9 55 0 1
Arizona 91%   5   Likely In 1 - 1 0 - 0 +18.2 10 A- +9 17 A +9 7 +7 88 0 1
Texas Tech 89%   4   Likely In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +17.4 14 A +10 8 A- +7 21 +6 108 0 1
BYU 88%   6   Likely In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +16.3 21 A +12 4 B +4 65 +23 8 0 1
Iowa St. 70%   8   Bubble - In 1 - 1 0 - 0 +16.3 23 B+ +8 36 A +9 12 0 211 0 1
Baylor 72%   8   Bubble - In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +14.0 31 A- +8 26 B+ +6 40 -1 223 0 1
TCU 68%   9   Bubble - In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +13.9 33 B+ +7 40 A- +7 31 +1 176 0 1
Cincinnati 71%   10   Bubble - In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +13.9 34 B+ +7 49 A- +7 23 +8 65 0 1
Oklahoma St. 75%   8   Bubble - In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +13.4 37 A- +8 28 B+ +5 48 +5 117 0 1
West Virginia 67%   9   Bubble - In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +13.2 38 B +6 54 A- +7 27 +1 181 0 1
Arizona St. 30%   Bubble - Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +9.5 66 B +6 62 B +4 82 +8 58 0 1
Central Florida 29%   Bubble - Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +7.9 76 B +6 57 C+ +2 111 +9 53 0 1
Colorado 17%   Likely Out 1 - 1 0 - 0 +6.8 88 B- +3 95 B- +3 84 0 193 0 1
Utah 8%   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +4.9 104 C+ +1 135 B +4 74 +7 85 0 1
Kansas St. 6%   Likely Out 1 - 1 0 - 0 +4.7 106 B- +3 106 C+ +2 105 -6 282 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 5 10 Arizona 104 169 Cal Poly 84   
197 Bethune-Cookman 58 14 Texas Tech 76   
34 Cincinnati 81 192 Green Bay 64   
182 Towson 57 104 Utah 67   
Fri, Nov 6 5 Kansas 89 173 Middle Tennessee 45   
23 Iowa St. 83 237 Southern Miss 57   
37 Oklahoma St. 118 185 Queens 68   
21 BYU 108 303 Nebraska Omaha 67   
76 Central Florida 87 150 Yale 75   
66 Arizona St. 90 202 Northern Colorado 63   
290 Stetson 53 38 West Virginia 91   
315 Southern 54 33 TCU 106   
216 Cal St. Northridge 78 106 Kansas St. 95   
363 Arkansas Pine Bluff 53 31 Baylor 109   
Sat, Nov 7 88 Colorado 66 64 San Diego St. 77   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 90 California 64 6 Houston 77 89%   
Mon, Nov 9 34 Cincinnati 69 57 Minnesota 62 72%   
Tue, Nov 10 3 Illinois 83 14 Texas Tech 81 58%   
5 Kansas 79 28 Kentucky 73 72%   
45 Creighton 81 106 Kansas St. 76 67%   
31 Baylor 86 150 Yale 69 93%   
21 BYU 99 185 Queens 77 97%   
66 Arizona St. 75 144 Hofstra 63 87%   
10 Arizona 87 305 Northern Arizona 57 99%   
23 Iowa St. 86 315 Southern 58 99%   
88 Colorado 79 154 San Diego 70 82%   
33 TCU 89 341 Louisiana Monroe 61 99%   
262 South Alabama 64 76 Central Florida 81 93%   
104 Utah 84 312 Weber St. 68 93%   
Wed, Nov 11 6 Houston 80 205 Jacksonville St. 54 98%   
Thu, Nov 12 37 Oklahoma St. 84 26 Texas A&M 89 69%   
21 BYU 85 132 Montana St. 68 94%   
241 Mercer 60 38 West Virginia 81 96%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Kansas 3 31% 19% 8% 3% 31 19 13 10 7 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Houston 4 24% 14% 7% 3% 24 16 13 10 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0
Texas Tech 5 18% 11% 5% 2% 18 14 12 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0
Arizona 5 14% 7% 4% 2% 14 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 1 1 0 0
BYU 6 9% 5% 3% 2% 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Oklahoma St. 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
TCU 7 7% 3% 2% 1% 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Baylor 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 1
Iowa St. 7 6% 2% 2% 1% 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 1
West Virginia 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 3 2 1
Cincinnati 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 1
Arizona St. 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 7 7 9 10 11 11 11 8 6
Central Florida 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 11 8
Colorado 12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 12 14 14 12
Utah 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 9 12 15 19 20
Kansas St. 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 6 9 11 15 20 24

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kansas 12 - 6 23 - 7 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 9 13 17 18 15 10 5 2 0
Houston 12 - 6 22 - 8 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 12 15 16 15 12 8 4 1 0
Texas Tech 11 - 7 20 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 15 13 10 6 3 1 0
Arizona 11 - 7 20 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 8 12 15 16 15 12 8 4 2 1 0
BYU 10 - 8 21 - 9 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 15 13 9 6 3 1 0 0
Oklahoma St. 10 - 8 21 - 11 0 0 0 2 3 6 9 12 15 15 13 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
TCU 10 - 8 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 15 14 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
Baylor 10 - 8 18 - 11 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 9 13 14 15 14 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
Iowa St. 9 - 9 19 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 10 13 15 15 13 10 7 3 1 0 0 0
West Virginia 9 - 9 19 - 11 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Cincinnati 9 - 9 21 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 14 15 15 11 9 5 3 1 0 0 0
Arizona St. 7 - 11 19 - 14 0 0 2 4 8 12 14 16 14 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0
Central Florida 7 - 11 17 - 15 0 1 3 6 10 13 15 15 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Colorado 6 - 12 15 - 16 0 2 4 8 12 15 15 14 12 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Utah 5 - 13 16 - 16 1 3 8 12 16 17 15 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0
Kansas St. 5 - 13 13 - 17 1 4 9 14 16 17 14 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Kansas 99% 20% 98% 2 Likely In 25 21 15 11 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 1
Houston 97% 16% 96% 2 Likely In 20 16 14 11 9 7 6 4 3 3 3 3
Arizona 91% 10% 90% 5 Likely In 9 10 12 12 10 9 7 6 5 5 6 1 9
Texas Tech 89% 12% 88% 4 Likely In 9 12 11 11 9 8 7 6 4 5 7 1 11
BYU 88% 8% 87% 6 Likely In 6 5 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 9 2 12
Iowa St. 70% 6% 68% 8 Bubble - In 2 3 4 5 7 7 7 6 5 9 12 2 30
Baylor 72% 5% 71% 8 Bubble - In 3 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 8 12 2 28
TCU 68% 6% 66% 9 Bubble - In 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 8 12 2 32
Cincinnati 71% 5% 70% 10 Bubble - In 2 2 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 9 13 2 29
Oklahoma St. 75% 5% 73% 8 Bubble - In 2 3 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 12 2 25
West Virginia 67% 5% 65% 9 Bubble - In 2 3 4 5 6 7 6 6 5 8 12 2 33
Arizona St. 30% 1% 30% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 10 3 70
Central Florida 29% 1% 28% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 10 3 71
Colorado 17% 0% 16% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 3 6 2 83
Utah 8% 0% 8% Likely Out 0 1 1 3 1 92
Kansas St. 6% 0% 5% Likely Out 0 0 1 1 2 1 94

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 9.8 0 0 2 11 27 33 20 5 1 0
1st Round 100% 8.7 0 0 2 12 27 32 20 6 1 0
2nd Round 100% 6.0 0 0 3 10 22 29 23 10 3 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 99% 3.2 1 7 21 32 24 11 3 0 0
Elite Eight 87% 1.6 13 35 34 15 3 0 0
Final Four 62% 0.8 38 44 16 2 0
Final Game 37% 0.4 63 34 4
Champion 20% 0.2 80 20

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kansas 99% 3% 97% 83% 54% 31% 18% 10% 5%
Houston 97% 5% 95% 78% 48% 26% 15% 8% 4%
Arizona 91% 10% 87% 65% 36% 19% 9% 4% 2%
Texas Tech 89% 11% 84% 65% 37% 20% 10% 5% 3%
BYU 88% 14% 81% 54% 27% 13% 6% 3% 1%
Iowa St. 70% 20% 61% 39% 19% 9% 4% 2% 1%
Baylor 72% 18% 63% 39% 18% 8% 4% 2% 1%
TCU 68% 19% 59% 37% 17% 8% 4% 2% 1%
Cincinnati 71% 21% 61% 36% 16% 7% 3% 1% 1%
Oklahoma St. 75% 19% 65% 41% 19% 9% 4% 2% 1%
West Virginia 67% 19% 58% 37% 18% 8% 4% 2% 1%
Arizona St. 30% 15% 22% 10% 3% 1%
Central Florida 29% 14% 21% 10% 4% 1% 1%
Colorado 17% 10% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Utah 8% 5% 5% 2% 1%
Kansas St. 6% 3% 4% 1%