Preseason Rankings
Big 12
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Arizona 96%   2   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +19.3 4 A +9 10 A+ +10 5 0 1 0 1
Houston 96%   2   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +19.0 6 A- +9 21 A+ +10 2 0 1 0 1
Kansas 96%   2   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +18.1 8 A +9 12 A +9 8 0 1 0 1
Iowa St. 82%   6   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.5 9 A- +8 30 A +9 6 0 1 0 1
Texas Tech 89%   4   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.1 14 A +11 4 A- +6 28 0 1 0 1
BYU 76%   8   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +14.3 26 A +9 13 B+ +5 49 0 1 0 1
Baylor 64%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.0 35 A- +8 27 B +5 58 0 1 0 1
Cincinnati 66%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.7 37 B+ +7 43 A- +6 27 0 1 0 1
TCU 53%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.5 46 B +6 52 B+ +6 34 0 1 0 1
West Virginia 57%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.4 48 B +6 58 B+ +6 32 0 1 0 1
Oklahoma St. 54%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +10.7 52 B+ +7 39 B +4 74 0 1 0 1
Central Florida 45%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.2 62 B +5 62 B +4 61 0 1 0 1
Arizona St. 33%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.1 63 B +5 63 B +4 63 0 1 0 1
Utah 20%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.2 86 B- +3 95 B +3 79 0 1 0 1
Kansas St. 15%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.8 91 B- +4 81 B- +2 101 0 1 0 1
Colorado 18%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.7 92 B- +3 94 B- +3 90 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Kansas 4 24% 14% 7% 3% 24 17 13 11 8 6 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0
Houston 4 24% 14% 7% 3% 24 16 13 10 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0
Arizona 4 23% 13% 7% 3% 23 16 13 11 9 7 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0
Texas Tech 5 19% 11% 5% 3% 19 14 12 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0
Iowa St. 6 11% 5% 3% 2% 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1
BYU 7 8% 4% 2% 2% 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1
Baylor 8 6% 2% 2% 1% 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2
TCU 8 5% 2% 1% 1% 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 2
Cincinnati 8 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 5 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 2
West Virginia 8 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3
Oklahoma St. 9 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3
Central Florida 10 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 5
Arizona St. 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 7
Utah 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 12 13
Colorado 12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 7 7 9 11 12 15 17
Kansas St. 12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 13 15 18

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kansas 12 - 6 21 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 11 15 17 16 11 7 4 1 0
Houston 12 - 6 22 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 8 12 15 16 15 11 7 3 1 0
Arizona 12 - 6 21 - 9 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 9 13 16 16 14 12 6 3 1 0
Texas Tech 11 - 7 20 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 13 15 15 13 9 6 3 1 0
Iowa St. 10 - 8 21 - 9 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 14 15 15 13 9 6 3 1 0 0
BYU 10 - 8 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 15 14 11 7 5 2 1 0
Baylor 9 - 9 17 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 1 0 0 0
TCU 9 - 9 19 - 11 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Cincinnati 9 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 14 15 13 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
West Virginia 9 - 9 18 - 12 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 13 15 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Oklahoma St. 9 - 9 19 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Central Florida 8 - 10 18 - 14 0 0 1 3 6 10 12 14 15 13 10 7 4 3 1 0 0 0
Arizona St. 7 - 11 19 - 14 0 1 2 4 8 11 14 15 14 12 9 5 3 1 1 0 0
Utah 6 - 12 17 - 15 0 1 4 7 11 13 15 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Colorado 6 - 12 15 - 16 0 2 5 9 12 15 15 13 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Kansas St. 6 - 12 15 - 15 0 2 5 9 13 16 15 14 11 7 4 2 1 1 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Arizona 96% 15% 95% 2 Likely In 18 15 14 12 9 8 6 4 3 3 3 4
Houston 96% 16% 96% 2 Likely In 19 16 14 11 8 7 6 5 3 3 4 1 4
Kansas 96% 15% 95% 2 Likely In 18 16 13 11 8 7 6 5 3 3 4 4
Iowa St. 82% 9% 80% 6 Likely In 5 6 7 8 8 9 8 7 5 8 10 1 18
Texas Tech 89% 13% 87% 4 Likely In 10 12 12 10 9 7 7 6 4 5 6 1 11
BYU 76% 6% 75% 8 Bubble - In 3 4 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 7 12 2 24
Baylor 64% 5% 62% 10 Bubble - In 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 8 12 2 36
Cincinnati 66% 4% 64% 10 Bubble - In 2 2 3 4 6 5 6 7 7 8 12 2 34
TCU 53% 4% 51% 11 Bubble - In 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 7 12 3 47
West Virginia 57% 4% 55% 11 Bubble - In 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 5 7 11 2 43
Oklahoma St. 54% 3% 53% 11 Bubble - In 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 7 13 2 46
Central Florida 45% 2% 44% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 7 11 3 55
Arizona St. 33% 1% 32% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 11 3 67
Utah 20% 1% 19% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 7 2 80
Kansas St. 15% 1% 15% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 3 6 2 85
Colorado 18% 1% 17% Likely Out 1 1 2 2 3 7 2 82

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 9.6 0 0 3 14 29 30 17 5 1 0
1st Round 100% 8.5 0 1 4 15 30 29 16 4 1 0
2nd Round 100% 5.8 0 1 3 13 25 28 20 8 2 0
Sweet Sixteen 99% 3.1 1 9 23 32 23 10 2 0 0
Elite Eight 86% 1.6 14 35 34 14 3 0 0
Final Four 62% 0.8 38 45 15 2 0
Final Game 38% 0.4 62 34 4
Champion 20% 0.2 80 20

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 96% 5% 93% 74% 44% 25% 13% 7% 4%
Houston 96% 6% 94% 76% 47% 26% 14% 8% 4%
Kansas 96% 6% 93% 75% 45% 26% 14% 8% 4%
Iowa St. 82% 16% 74% 51% 27% 14% 7% 3% 1%
Texas Tech 89% 11% 84% 64% 37% 20% 11% 6% 3%
BYU 76% 18% 68% 42% 21% 10% 5% 2% 1%
Baylor 64% 19% 55% 33% 16% 7% 3% 2% 1%
Cincinnati 66% 19% 57% 34% 16% 7% 3% 1% 1%
TCU 53% 18% 44% 25% 11% 5% 2% 1% 1%
West Virginia 57% 18% 48% 29% 14% 6% 3% 1% 1%
Oklahoma St. 54% 19% 45% 25% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Central Florida 45% 17% 36% 19% 8% 3% 2% 1%
Arizona St. 33% 16% 24% 11% 4% 2% 1%
Utah 20% 10% 14% 6% 2% 1%
Kansas St. 15% 8% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Colorado 18% 9% 12% 6% 2% 1%