Big Sky
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Montana St. 28%   15   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 +1.6 132 C+ +1 129 C +0 145 +1 183 0 1
Eastern Washington 15%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -1.3 170 C+ +1 138 D+ -2 242 -1 220 0 1
Northern Colorado 11%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.1 202 C- -1 192 C- -2 233 0 216 0 1
Montana 10%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.2 204 C- -1 195 C- -2 228 +1 180 0 1
Portland St. 10%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.5 211 C- -3 240 C- -1 184 -7 286 0 1
Idaho 8%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -4.2 230 D+ -3 252 C- -1 204 -3 253 0 1
Southern Utah 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.9 244 C- -2 229 D+ -3 258 0 199 0 1
Utah Tech 4%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -7.0 282 D -5 297 D+ -2 244 +1 189 0 1
Northern Arizona 3%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -8.3 305 C- -2 233 D- -6 355 -3 249 0 1
Weber St. 3%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -8.7 312 D+ -4 278 D -5 330 -11 309 0 1
Idaho St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -10.9 338 D -6 320 D- -5 338 -4 262 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 6 170 Eastern Washington 71 55 Oregon 98   
66 Arizona St. 90 202 Northern Colorado 63   
87 Colorado St. 78 230 Idaho 67   
338 Idaho St. 62 114 Wyoming 93   
Sat, Nov 7 58 New Mexico 94 305 Northern Arizona 65   
211 Portland St. 60 119 Seattle 79   
125 Utah Valley 101 312 Weber St. 93   
248 Long Beach St. 70 132 Montana St. 83   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 302 Air Force 72 338 Idaho St. 66 71%   
Mon, Nov 9 170 Eastern Washington 71 75 Oregon St. 77 73%   
Tue, Nov 10 10 Arizona 87 305 Northern Arizona 57 99%   
50 Utah St. 82 282 Utah Tech 60 97%   
204 Montana 68 143 San Francisco 75 75%   
104 Utah 84 312 Weber St. 68 93%   
Wed, Nov 11 87 Colorado St. 79 211 Portland St. 65 89%   
Thu, Nov 12 21 BYU 85 132 Montana St. 68 94%   
69 High Point 87 244 Southern Utah 70 93%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Montana St. 2 46% 34% 9% 3% 46 21 12 8 5 3 2 1 1 0 0
Eastern Washington 4 20% 13% 5% 2% 20 19 15 12 10 8 6 4 3 2 1
Northern Colorado 5 12% 7% 4% 1% 12 13 14 12 12 10 9 7 5 4 2
Montana 5 12% 7% 4% 1% 12 14 13 12 12 10 8 7 6 4 2
Portland St. 5 12% 7% 3% 1% 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 4 2
Southern Utah 5 8% 5% 2% 1% 8 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 6 4
Idaho 6 8% 4% 2% 1% 8 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 4
Utah Tech 7 3% 2% 1% 0% 3 6 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 10 8
Northern Arizona 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 7 9 11 12 12 14 14 11
Weber St. 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 6 8 10 11 13 15 15 13
Idaho St. 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 2 3 5 7 10 14 21 34

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Montana St. 14 - 6 18 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 10 13 15 15 13 9 5 2 0
Eastern Washington 12 - 8 14 - 15 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 12 14 13 12 9 6 3 1 0 0
Northern Colorado 11 - 9 13 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 13 11 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Montana 11 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 10 13 13 12 11 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Portland St. 11 - 9 13 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 13 12 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
Southern Utah 10 - 10 12 - 17 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 8 11 13 13 12 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Idaho 10 - 10 13 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 10 12 13 12 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Utah Tech 9 - 11 11 - 18 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 11 13 13 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Northern Arizona 8 - 12 9 - 19 0 0 1 3 5 8 12 13 14 13 11 9 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Weber St. 8 - 12 10 - 20 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 13 14 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Idaho St. 6 - 14 7 - 22 0 2 5 9 13 15 15 13 11 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Montana St. 28% 28% 0% 15 Negligible 1 5 10 10 2 72
Eastern Washington 15% 15% 0% Negligible 1 4 7 3 85
Northern Colorado 11% 11% 0% Negligible 2 5 3 89
Montana 10% 10% 0% Negligible 2 5 3 90
Portland St. 10% 10% 0% Negligible 2 5 3 90
Idaho 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 4 3 92
Southern Utah 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 3 3 92
Utah Tech 4% 4% 0% Negligible 2 3 96
Northern Arizona 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 2 97
Weber St. 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 2 97
Idaho St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 73% 0.7 27 73
2nd Round 5% 0.1 95 5
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 28% 7% 24% 3%
Eastern Washington 15% 8% 12% 1%
Northern Colorado 11% 7% 8%
Montana 10% 6% 7%
Portland St. 10% 6% 7%
Idaho 8% 6% 5%
Southern Utah 8% 5% 5%
Utah Tech 4% 4% 2%
Northern Arizona 3% 3% 2%
Weber St. 3% 3% 2%
Idaho St. 1% 1%