Preseason Rankings
Big Sky
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Montana St. 25%   15   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.7 130 C +1 135 C+ +1 127 0 1 0 1
Eastern Washington 14%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -0.9 168 C+ +1 134 C- -2 232 0 1 0 1
Northern Colorado 12%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.0 190 C -1 186 C- -1 211 0 1 0 1
Portland St. 11%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.3 195 C- -2 233 C +0 167 0 1 0 1
Montana 10%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.9 204 C- -1 199 C- -2 223 0 1 0 1
Southern Utah 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.0 235 C- -1 202 D+ -3 270 0 1 0 1
Idaho 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.3 240 D+ -3 260 C- -2 216 0 1 0 1
Utah Tech 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.9 273 D+ -4 290 C- -2 231 0 1 0 1
Weber St. 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.3 290 D -4 303 D+ -3 274 0 1 0 1
Northern Arizona 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -8.0 307 D+ -3 272 D- -5 334 0 1 0 1
Idaho St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -9.3 327 D -5 316 D -4 330 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Montana St. 3 40% 29% 8% 2% 40 20 13 9 7 5 3 2 1 1 0
Eastern Washington 4 20% 13% 5% 2% 20 17 14 12 9 8 6 5 4 2 1
Northern Colorado 4 15% 10% 4% 1% 15 15 14 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 2
Portland St. 5 13% 8% 4% 1% 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 7 6 4 2
Montana 5 12% 7% 3% 1% 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 3
Southern Utah 6 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 6 4
Idaho 6 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 6
Utah Tech 6 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 8
Weber St. 7 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 4 6 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 11
Northern Arizona 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 7 8 10 11 12 14 14 13
Idaho St. 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 14 19 28

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Montana St. 13 - 7 17 - 12 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 7 9 11 14 14 13 11 8 4 1 0
Eastern Washington 12 - 8 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 8 11 12 13 12 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
Northern Colorado 11 - 9 13 - 14 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 10 12 12 12 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0
Portland St. 11 - 9 13 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 10 13 13 12 11 8 6 3 2 1 0 0
Montana 11 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 1 1 2 5 7 8 11 12 13 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
Southern Utah 10 - 10 12 - 17 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 11 13 13 13 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Idaho 10 - 10 12 - 16 0 0 1 3 4 7 9 12 12 13 11 9 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Utah Tech 9 - 11 11 - 18 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 13 13 12 11 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Weber St. 8 - 12 11 - 19 0 0 1 2 5 8 10 13 14 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
Northern Arizona 8 - 12 9 - 19 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 14 13 12 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Idaho St. 7 - 13 8 - 21 0 1 4 7 11 13 14 13 11 9 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Montana St. 25% 25% 0% 15 Negligible 1 6 8 7 1 75
Eastern Washington 14% 14% 0% Negligible 2 4 5 2 86
Northern Colorado 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 3 5 2 88
Portland St. 11% 11% 0% Negligible 1 3 5 3 89
Montana 10% 10% 0% Negligible 1 2 4 2 90
Southern Utah 7% 7% 0% Negligible 0 1 3 2 93
Idaho 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 94
Utah Tech 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 2 2 95
Weber St. 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 96
Northern Arizona 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 97
Idaho St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 77% 0.8 23 77 0
2nd Round 8% 0.1 92 8
Sweet Sixteen 2% 0.0 98 2
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 25% 5% 23% 3% 1%
Eastern Washington 14% 5% 12% 1%
Northern Colorado 12% 6% 9% 1%
Portland St. 11% 6% 9% 1%
Montana 10% 5% 7% 1%
Southern Utah 7% 4% 5%
Idaho 6% 4% 4%
Utah Tech 5% 4% 4%
Weber St. 4% 3% 2%
Northern Arizona 3% 3% 2%
Idaho St. 1% 1% 1%