Big Ten
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Illinois 99%   2   Likely In 2 - 1 0 - 0 +21.9 3 A+ +13 1 A +9 12 +10 41 0 1
Michigan St. 99%   1   Likely In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +20.8 5 A +10 11 A+ +11 6 +30 1 0 1
UCLA 93%   4   Likely In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +17.4 16 A- +10 14 A- +8 18 +27 2 0 1
Nebraska 84%   6   Likely In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +16.5 21 B+ +7 40 A +9 8 +21 12 0 1
Michigan 84%   5   Likely In 1 - 1 0 - 0 +16.2 22 A- +9 27 A- +8 23 +6 87 0 1
USC 79%   7   Bubble - In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +14.2 32 B+ +8 39 A- +7 32 +17 21 0 1
Indiana 76%   9   Bubble - In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +13.8 34 A- +9 23 B +5 51 +17 20 0 1
Purdue 69%   8   Bubble - In 1 - 2 0 - 0 +13.0 41 B+ +8 34 B+ +5 46 0 207 0 1
Ohio St. 57%   11   Bubble - In 2 - 1 0 - 0 +12.6 44 A- +8 32 B +4 65 +7 81 0 1
Iowa 54%   11   Bubble - In 2 - 1 0 - 0 +12.2 45 B+ +8 38 B +5 52 +4 133 0 1
Wisconsin 65%   10   Bubble - In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +11.5 51 B +5 71 B+ +6 35 +6 98 0 1
Minnesota 54%   11   Bubble - In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +11.5 52 B- +4 80 A- +7 28 +23 6 0 1
Oregon 49%   Bubble - Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +11.1 53 B+ +7 44 B +4 66 +8 59 0 1
Maryland 41%   Bubble - Out 1 - 1 0 - 0 +11.1 55 B+ +7 43 B +4 69 -2 232 0 1
Rutgers 19%   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +8.0 76 B +5 73 B- +3 82 -2 225 0 1
Washington 21%   Bubble - Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +7.2 82 B +5 74 B- +2 97 +3 154 0 1
Northwestern 19%   Likely Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +6.6 88 B- +4 86 B- +3 95 +4 132 0 1
Penn St. 4%   Likely Out 2 - 1 0 - 0 +4.9 105 B +5 70 C +0 170 +1 176 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sat, Nov 7 21 Nebraska 67 47 Providence 58   
77 Georgetown 86 55 Maryland 74   
Sun, Nov 8 32 USC 93 83 Wichita St. 86   
105 Penn St. 76 71 Pittsburgh 82   
Mon, Nov 9 40 Cincinnati 61 52 Minnesota 63   
34 Indiana 83 62 Syracuse 80   
118 Illinois St. 59 41 Purdue 76   
181 Marshall 74 44 Ohio St. 84   
365 Mississippi Valley 64 82 Washington 77   
268 Boston University 55 88 Northwestern 72   
Tue, Nov 10 1 Duke 73 5 Michigan St. 79   
3 Illinois 78 12 Texas Tech 84   
45 Iowa 88 43 Virginia Tech 93   
265 Fairfield 42 51 Wisconsin 89   
351 NJIT 64 76 Rutgers 101   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 11 25 Marquette 75 22 Michigan 78 63%   
90 California 75 32 USC 80 68%   
312 Lindenwood 59 21 Nebraska 87 99%   
363 Arkansas Pine Bluff 57 16 UCLA 93 100%   
365 Mississippi Valley 52 53 Oregon 86 99%   
Thu, Nov 12 34 Indiana 91 198 Tennessee Tech 72 96%   
52 Minnesota 77 305 Southern 54 97%   
308 Mercyhurst 65 105 Penn St. 82 93%   
Fri, Nov 13 44 Ohio St. 65 6 Connecticut 76 85%   
55 Maryland 71 8 Virginia 76 69%   
5 Michigan St. 86 140 Northern Iowa 63 97%   
3 Illinois 98 174 Sam Houston St. 72 98%   
70 DePaul 67 88 Northwestern 68 53%   
144 Ohio 65 41 Purdue 81 92%   
313 Bryant 59 76 Rutgers 79 96%   
Sat, Nov 14 100 Utah 71 82 Washington 70 55%   
Sun, Nov 15 69 Boise St. 68 21 Nebraska 76 76%   
56 Creighton 68 45 Iowa 69 55%   
22 Michigan 94 176 William & Mary 73 96%   
53 Oregon 80 145 Pepperdine 67 90%   
267 Coastal Carolina 61 51 Wisconsin 81 96%   
363 Arkansas Pine Bluff 63 32 USC 96 99%   
339 New Haven 60 105 Penn St. 80 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Illinois 3 37% 24% 9% 3% 37 20 12 9 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Michigan St. 4 28% 17% 8% 3% 28 19 14 10 8 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
UCLA 5 15% 9% 5% 2% 15 14 13 11 9 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0
Michigan 6 9% 5% 3% 2% 9 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0
Nebraska 6 9% 5% 3% 2% 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0
USC 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1
Purdue 8 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1
Indiana 8 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1
Ohio St. 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1
Wisconsin 9 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2
Iowa 9 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2
Oregon 10 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 3
Minnesota 10 2% 1% 0% 0% 2 2 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 3
Maryland 11 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 5 4
Rutgers 13 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9
Washington 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 11
Northwestern 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 9 10 13 14 14
Penn St. 15 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 11 14 18 24

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Illinois 14 - 6 23 - 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 10 13 16 16 15 10 5 2 0
Michigan St. 14 - 6 24 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 12 15 17 15 12 7 3 1 0
UCLA 13 - 7 22 - 9 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 15 13 11 7 4 2 0 0
Michigan 12 - 8 19 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Nebraska 12 - 8 22 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
USC 11 - 9 21 - 11 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 8 11 13 14 14 12 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Purdue 11 - 9 18 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 14 13 11 8 4 3 1 0 0 0
Indiana 11 - 9 21 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 14 13 11 8 4 3 1 0 0
Ohio St. 10 - 10 18 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0
Wisconsin 10 - 10 18 - 13 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 11 13 13 13 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Iowa 10 - 10 18 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 14 13 10 7 5 2 1 0 0 0
Oregon 9 - 11 17 - 13 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 11 13 13 13 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Minnesota 9 - 11 19 - 13 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 14 14 14 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Maryland 9 - 11 16 - 14 0 0 1 1 4 6 9 12 13 13 13 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
Rutgers 8 - 12 16 - 14 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 13 12 9 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
Washington 7 - 13 14 - 15 0 1 3 5 9 12 14 14 13 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Northwestern 7 - 13 15 - 17 0 1 3 7 10 13 14 14 12 10 7 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Penn St. 6 - 14 14 - 17 0 2 6 10 14 16 15 13 10 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Illinois 99% 20% 98% 2 Likely In 23 21 17 12 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 1
Michigan St. 99% 19% 99% 1 Likely In 29 20 16 11 8 5 4 3 2 1 1 1
UCLA 93% 11% 92% 4 Likely In 10 11 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 6 1 7
Nebraska 84% 7% 83% 6 Likely In 4 5 7 8 10 9 8 8 6 9 10 1 16
Michigan 84% 9% 83% 5 Likely In 6 7 9 10 9 8 8 6 6 7 7 1 16
USC 79% 6% 78% 7 Bubble - In 3 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 7 8 12 2 21
Indiana 76% 4% 75% 9 Bubble - In 2 2 4 5 8 8 8 8 8 9 12 1 24
Purdue 69% 6% 67% 8 Bubble - In 2 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 10 1 31
Ohio St. 57% 4% 55% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 9 13 2 43
Iowa 54% 3% 53% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 8 13 2 46
Wisconsin 65% 4% 64% 10 Bubble - In 2 2 4 4 5 6 7 7 6 8 12 2 35
Minnesota 54% 2% 53% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 14 3 46
Oregon 49% 2% 47% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 7 13 3 51
Maryland 41% 2% 40% Bubble - Out 1 1 3 3 4 4 5 7 11 2 59
Rutgers 19% 1% 19% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 7 2 81
Washington 21% 1% 21% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 7 2 79
Northwestern 19% 0% 18% Likely Out 1 1 2 2 4 7 2 81
Penn St. 4% 0% 4% Likely Out 0 1 2 1 96

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 10.7 0 0 3 13 28 32 18 5 1
1st Round 100% 9.4 0 1 5 17 29 29 15 4 1 0
2nd Round 100% 6.3 0 0 2 7 18 28 25 14 4 1 0
Sweet Sixteen 99% 3.2 1 7 21 32 25 12 3 0 0 0
Elite Eight 87% 1.6 13 35 34 15 3 0 0
Final Four 61% 0.8 39 44 15 2 0
Final Game 36% 0.4 64 33 3
Champion 20% 0.2 80 20

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Illinois 99% 2% 98% 84% 53% 31% 17% 9% 5%
Michigan St. 99% 2% 99% 86% 55% 32% 17% 9% 5%
UCLA 93% 10% 88% 67% 37% 19% 10% 5% 3%
Nebraska 84% 16% 77% 51% 25% 12% 6% 3% 1%
Michigan 84% 12% 79% 56% 30% 15% 7% 3% 2%
USC 79% 18% 71% 45% 21% 10% 4% 2% 1%
Indiana 76% 19% 67% 40% 18% 7% 3% 1%
Purdue 69% 16% 61% 39% 19% 9% 4% 2% 1%
Ohio St. 57% 21% 47% 26% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Iowa 54% 20% 44% 24% 10% 4% 2% 1%
Wisconsin 65% 18% 56% 33% 15% 7% 3% 1% 1%
Minnesota 54% 21% 43% 22% 8% 3% 1%
Oregon 49% 19% 39% 20% 8% 3% 1%
Maryland 41% 17% 32% 17% 7% 3% 1%
Rutgers 19% 11% 13% 6% 2% 1%
Washington 21% 11% 15% 7% 2% 1%
Northwestern 19% 10% 13% 5% 2% 1%
Penn St. 4% 3% 3% 1%