Preseason Rankings
Big Ten
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Illinois 98%   1   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +21.1 3 A+ +13 1 A +8 12 0 1 0 1
Michigan St. 95%   2   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +18.4 7 A +9 11 A +9 7 0 1 0 1
Michigan 92%   3   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.3 12 A- +9 17 A +8 11 0 1 0 1
Nebraska 79%   7   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +14.9 23 A- +8 33 A- +7 19 0 1 0 1
UCLA 81%   5   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +14.6 24 A- +8 31 A- +7 22 0 1 0 1
Purdue 87%   5   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +14.5 25 A- +9 23 B+ +6 30 0 1 0 1
Ohio St. 75%   7   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +14.0 27 A- +8 29 B+ +6 33 0 1 0 1
USC 79%   7   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.4 32 B+ +7 42 A- +7 20 0 1 0 1
Indiana 69%   9   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.3 33 A- +8 34 B+ +5 39 0 1 0 1
Maryland 62%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.2 40 B+ +7 41 B+ +5 41 0 1 0 1
Wisconsin 72%   8   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.1 41 B+ +7 40 B+ +5 46 0 1 0 1
Iowa 57%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.4 47 B+ +6 46 B+ +5 51 0 1 0 1
Minnesota 40%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +10.0 56 B +5 66 B+ +5 45 0 1 0 1
Oregon 44%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.5 59 B +6 55 B +4 70 0 1 0 1
Washington 31%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.6 74 B +5 67 B- +3 85 0 1 0 1
Rutgers 18%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.5 85 B- +4 74 B- +2 92 0 1 0 1
Northwestern 19%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.0 87 B- +4 84 B- +2 93 0 1 0 1
Penn St. 10%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.3 95 B +4 73 C+ +1 118 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Illinois 4 31% 20% 8% 3% 31 18 12 9 7 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Michigan St. 5 19% 11% 5% 3% 19 15 12 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0
Michigan 5 15% 9% 4% 2% 15 13 11 10 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0
Purdue 6 13% 7% 4% 2% 13 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0
UCLA 7 10% 5% 3% 2% 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 0
Nebraska 7 9% 4% 3% 1% 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1
Ohio St. 7 8% 4% 2% 1% 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1
USC 7 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1
Wisconsin 8 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1
Indiana 8 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1
Maryland 9 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2
Iowa 10 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 3
Oregon 11 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 5
Minnesota 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5
Washington 12 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 8
Rutgers 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 8 9 10 12 13 13
Northwestern 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 12 14 16
Penn St. 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 7 9 11 13 16 19

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Illinois 14 - 6 23 - 9 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 15 16 15 12 7 4 1 0
Michigan St. 13 - 7 22 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 9 12 14 15 13 11 7 4 2 0 0
Michigan 12 - 8 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 13 10 6 3 1 0 0
Purdue 12 - 8 21 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 11 13 14 13 12 8 5 3 1 0 0
UCLA 11 - 9 20 - 11 0 0 1 1 2 4 7 10 12 13 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Nebraska 11 - 9 21 - 11 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 10 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 2 0 0 0
Ohio St. 11 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 1 0 0
USC 11 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 11 13 13 13 12 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Wisconsin 10 - 10 19 - 12 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 10 12 13 13 11 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Indiana 10 - 10 20 - 12 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 10 12 14 13 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Maryland 10 - 10 18 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 14 12 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
Iowa 9 - 11 18 - 14 0 0 0 1 3 4 7 10 13 13 14 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Oregon 9 - 11 16 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 13 14 12 10 7 5 3 1 0 0 0
Minnesota 9 - 11 18 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Washington 8 - 12 15 - 14 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 13 13 12 10 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Rutgers 7 - 13 14 - 15 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 13 12 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Northwestern 7 - 13 15 - 17 0 1 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 9 7 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Penn St. 6 - 14 15 - 16 0 2 4 8 12 14 14 14 11 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Illinois 98% 17% 98% 1 Likely In 27 20 14 10 8 6 4 3 2 2 2 2
Michigan St. 95% 13% 94% 2 Likely In 17 15 14 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 4 5
Michigan 92% 12% 91% 3 Likely In 15 14 13 11 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 8
Nebraska 79% 6% 78% 7 Bubble - In 4 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 8 10 1 21
UCLA 81% 8% 79% 5 Bubble - In 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 7 10 1 19
Purdue 87% 10% 86% 5 Likely In 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 1 13
Ohio St. 75% 6% 73% 7 Bubble - In 3 5 6 7 8 7 7 7 6 8 11 1 25
USC 79% 6% 77% 7 Bubble - In 5 5 6 7 8 7 8 7 6 8 10 2 21
Indiana 69% 4% 68% 9 Bubble - In 2 3 4 5 7 7 7 6 7 9 11 1 31
Maryland 62% 3% 61% 10 Bubble - In 2 2 3 4 6 5 6 6 6 8 12 2 38
Wisconsin 72% 5% 70% 8 Bubble - In 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 8 10 2 28
Iowa 57% 3% 55% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 2 3 5 5 6 5 6 9 12 2 43
Minnesota 40% 2% 39% Bubble - Out 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 11 2 60
Oregon 44% 2% 43% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 7 11 2 56
Washington 31% 1% 30% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 5 9 2 69
Rutgers 18% 1% 17% Likely Out 1 1 1 1 2 3 6 1 82
Northwestern 19% 0% 18% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 2 4 6 1 81
Penn St. 10% 0% 10% Likely Out 1 1 2 4 1 90

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 11.0 0 0 2 8 22 32 24 10 2
1st Round 100% 9.9 0 0 2 10 25 30 22 8 2 0
2nd Round 100% 6.7 0 1 5 13 24 27 18 8 2 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 100% 3.6 0 4 16 29 27 16 6 1 0 0
Elite Eight 91% 1.8 9 30 35 20 5 1 0
Final Four 67% 0.9 33 45 20 3 0
Final Game 42% 0.5 58 37 5
Champion 23% 0.2 77 23

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Illinois 98% 3% 97% 82% 52% 30% 17% 9% 5%
Michigan St. 95% 6% 93% 74% 44% 25% 13% 7% 4%
Michigan 92% 7% 89% 70% 41% 22% 12% 6% 3%
Nebraska 79% 16% 71% 47% 24% 12% 6% 3% 1%
UCLA 81% 15% 74% 51% 27% 14% 7% 4% 2%
Purdue 87% 10% 83% 62% 35% 19% 10% 5% 3%
Ohio St. 75% 17% 67% 43% 22% 11% 5% 2% 1%
USC 79% 16% 70% 46% 23% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Indiana 69% 18% 60% 36% 17% 8% 4% 2% 1%
Maryland 62% 18% 53% 32% 15% 7% 3% 1% 1%
Wisconsin 72% 16% 64% 42% 21% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Iowa 57% 19% 47% 27% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Minnesota 40% 17% 31% 16% 6% 3% 1%
Oregon 44% 16% 35% 18% 8% 3% 1% 1%
Washington 31% 13% 24% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Rutgers 18% 9% 13% 6% 2% 1%
Northwestern 19% 9% 14% 6% 2% 1%
Penn St. 10% 6% 6% 3% 1%