Big West
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
UC Santa Barbara 32%   13   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +6.6 89 B- +4 81 C+ +2 103 +15 24 0 1
UC San Diego 24%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +4.8 106 C+ +2 114 B- +3 93 +8 63 0 1
UC Irvine 19%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +3.7 115 C -1 182 B +5 59 +9 44 0 1
Utah Valley 15%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +2.3 123 C+ +2 127 C +1 129 +7 73 0 1
Sacramento St. 5%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -0.9 166 C- -1 187 C +0 148 -2 229 0 1
Cal Poly 3%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -1.9 185 C +0 156 D+ -2 246 +5 114 0 1
Cal St. Northridge 1%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -3.7 214 D+ -3 251 C- -1 182 -4 242 0 1
UC Riverside 2%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -4.1 225 D+ -4 281 C +0 158 +6 87 0 1
Cal St. Fullerton 1%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -4.1 226 D+ -3 253 C- -1 202 +3 155 0 1
Long Beach St. 2%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -4.2 229 D+ -3 249 C- -1 217 0 207 0 1
Cal St. Bakersfield 1%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -6.2 272 C- -2 222 D -4 310 +6 97 0 1
California Baptist 0%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -9.4 319 D -5 307 D -4 315 -23 364 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 272 Cal St. Bakersfield 91 235 North Dakota St. 80   
Wed, Nov 11 78 Nevada 63 89 UC Santa Barbara 76   
185 Cal Poly 71 44 Grand Canyon 99   
229 Long Beach St. 62 129 Pacific 59   
319 California Baptist 62 324 Chicago St. 81   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 12 158 San Jose St. 78 225 UC Riverside 71 74%   
272 Cal St. Bakersfield 78 362 Western Illinois 71 73%   
Fri, Nov 13 106 UC San Diego 70 48 Utah St. 80 83%   
185 Cal Poly 78 228 Idaho 79 53%   
363 Arkansas Pine Bluff 68 319 California Baptist 78 82%   
Sat, Nov 14 78 Nevada 78 123 Utah Valley 69 79%   
166 Sacramento St. 80 205 UC Davis 75 69%   
187 Fresno St. 75 225 UC Riverside 70 69%   
Sun, Nov 15 185 Cal Poly 75 127 Montana St. 82 74%   
272 Cal St. Bakersfield 75 235 North Dakota St. 79 68%   
Mon, Nov 16 229 Long Beach St. 62 13 UCLA 87 98%   
333 Texas Southern 61 106 UC San Diego 79 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
UC Santa Barbara 2 42% 30% 9% 2% 42 24 15 9 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
UC San Diego 3 29% 20% 7% 2% 29 24 16 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
UC Irvine 3 22% 14% 6% 2% 22 21 19 14 10 6 3 2 1 1 0 0
Utah Valley 4 17% 10% 5% 2% 17 18 17 15 11 9 6 4 3 1 1 0
Sacramento St. 6 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 8 11 12 14 12 11 9 7 6 4 2
Cal Poly 6 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 8 10 13 14 12 11 9 8 6 3
UC Riverside 7 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 3 4 7 10 11 12 13 12 11 9 6
Cal St. Northridge 8 1% 0% 1% 0% 1 3 4 7 9 11 12 13 12 12 10 7
Cal St. Fullerton 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 13 12 13 10 6
Long Beach St. 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 4 7 9 11 12 14 13 12 9 7
Cal St. Bakersfield 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 3 5 7 9 11 13 16 18 16
California Baptist 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 15 22 34

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
UC Santa Barbara 16 - 6 23 - 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 10 13 15 14 15 9 6 2 0
UC San Diego 15 - 7 20 - 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 7 10 12 13 14 12 10 7 4 1 0
UC Irvine 15 - 7 20 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 8 11 13 14 13 10 8 5 2 1 0
Utah Valley 14 - 8 17 - 11 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 13 13 11 9 6 3 1 1 0
Sacramento St. 11 - 11 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 4 5 7 9 11 12 12 11 9 7 4 3 2 1 0 0
Cal Poly 11 - 11 13 - 17 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 9 12 12 13 11 9 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
UC Riverside 9 - 13 13 - 17 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 10 12 12 13 11 9 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 13 13 - 17 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 12 13 12 11 8 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
Cal St. Fullerton 9 - 13 13 - 17 0 0 0 1 3 6 8 11 12 13 12 11 8 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
Long Beach St. 9 - 13 12 - 20 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 13 13 13 10 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 14 11 - 19 0 1 2 5 7 10 13 13 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
California Baptist 6 - 16 8 - 24 0 2 5 9 13 15 15 13 10 7 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
UC Santa Barbara 32% 29% 3% 13 Likely Out 1 2 11 15 3 68
UC San Diego 24% 23% 1% Likely Out 1 7 12 3 1 76
UC Irvine 19% 18% 1% Likely Out 4 9 3 1 81
Utah Valley 15% 14% 1% Likely Out 3 7 3 85
Sacramento St. 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 2 2 1 95
Cal Poly 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 97
Cal St. Northridge 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 99
UC Riverside 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 98
Cal St. Fullerton 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 99
Long Beach St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 98
Cal St. Bakersfield 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99
California Baptist 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 96 4
1st Round 99% 1.0 1 96 3
2nd Round 18% 0.2 82 18 0
Sweet Sixteen 4% 0.0 96 4
Elite Eight 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Santa Barbara 32% 1% 31% 7% 2%
UC San Diego 24% 1% 23% 5% 1%
UC Irvine 19% 1% 18% 3% 1%
Utah Valley 15% 15% 2% 1%
Sacramento St. 5% 1% 5%
Cal Poly 3% 3%
Cal St. Northridge 1% 1%
UC Riverside 2% 2%
Cal St. Fullerton 1% 1%
Long Beach St. 2% 1%
Cal St. Bakersfield 1%
California Baptist 0%