Preseason Rankings
Big West
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
UC Santa Barbara 25%   13   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.2 104 B- +3 92 C+ +1 117 0 1 0 1
UC San Diego 24%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.1 105 C+ +2 117 B- +2 96 0 1 0 1
UC Irvine 16%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.0 112 C- -2 217 B +5 55 0 1 0 1
Utah Valley 18%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.4 119 C +0 151 B- +2 99 0 1 0 1
Cal Poly 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.5 180 C +1 142 D+ -2 244 0 1 0 1
Sacramento St. 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.7 183 C +0 159 C- -2 224 0 1 0 1
Cal St. Fullerton 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.8 203 C- -2 220 C- -1 201 0 1 0 1
California Baptist 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.2 216 D+ -3 257 C +0 175 0 1 0 1
Cal St. Northridge 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.6 226 C- -2 247 C- -1 207 0 1 0 1
UC Riverside 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.4 241 C- -2 243 D+ -2 243 0 1 0 1
Long Beach St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.8 272 D+ -3 250 D+ -3 289 0 1 0 1
Cal St. Bakersfield 0%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.5 297 D+ -4 279 D -4 307 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
UC Santa Barbara 3 36% 26% 8% 2% 36 21 14 10 7 5 3 2 1 1 0 0
UC San Diego 3 28% 19% 7% 2% 28 22 16 11 8 5 4 3 2 1 1 0
Utah Valley 4 25% 17% 6% 2% 25 19 15 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 1 1
UC Irvine 4 14% 8% 4% 2% 14 16 16 14 11 9 7 5 3 2 1 1
Sacramento St. 6 6% 4% 2% 1% 6 8 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 3
Cal St. Fullerton 7 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 6 7 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 5
Cal Poly 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 7 9 11 12 11 11 10 10 8 5
California Baptist 7 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 6 8 9 11 11 11 10 10 9 6
Cal St. Northridge 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 7 9 9 10 11 12 11 10 8
UC Riverside 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 7 9 9 11 12 12 11 11 8
Long Beach St. 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 6 8 10 11 13 14 15 13
Cal St. Bakersfield 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 2 3 5 6 9 10 14 19 29

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
UC Santa Barbara 15 - 7 20 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 8 11 12 13 13 11 9 6 3 1 0
UC San Diego 14 - 7 19 - 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 6 10 12 13 14 13 10 7 4 1 0
Utah Valley 14 - 8 16 - 11 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 6 8 10 12 12 13 10 9 6 3 1 0 0
UC Irvine 13 - 7 17 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 5 8 10 12 14 13 12 9 6 3 1 0
Sacramento St. 11 - 11 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 6 9 11 11 12 12 10 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Cal St. Fullerton 10 - 12 13 - 17 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 10 12 12 11 10 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Cal Poly 10 - 9 12 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 13 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
California Baptist 10 - 12 14 - 18 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 12 11 9 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 13 12 - 18 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 10 12 12 11 10 8 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
UC Riverside 9 - 13 12 - 18 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 13 12 10 8 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Long Beach St. 8 - 14 11 - 21 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 13 13 13 10 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7 - 15 9 - 21 0 1 4 7 11 13 13 13 11 9 7 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
UC Santa Barbara 25% 24% 2% 13 Likely Out 1 1 6 11 5 1 75
UC San Diego 24% 23% 1% Likely Out 1 7 10 4 1 76
UC Irvine 16% 16% 1% Likely Out 1 4 7 3 1 84
Utah Valley 18% 18% 1% Likely Out 4 8 4 1 82
Cal Poly 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 96
Sacramento St. 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 2 2 1 95
Cal St. Fullerton 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 0 97
California Baptist 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 0 97
Cal St. Northridge 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 0 98
UC Riverside 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 98
Long Beach St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99
Cal St. Bakersfield 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 96 4 0
1st Round 97% 1.0 3 95 2
2nd Round 20% 0.2 80 20 0
Sweet Sixteen 6% 0.1 94 6 0
Elite Eight 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Santa Barbara 25% 1% 24% 6% 2%
UC San Diego 24% 1% 23% 5% 2%
UC Irvine 16% 1% 16% 4% 1%
Utah Valley 18% 1% 18% 4% 1%
Cal Poly 4% 4%
Sacramento St. 5% 1% 5% 1%
Cal St. Fullerton 3% 1% 3%
California Baptist 3% 1% 2%
Cal St. Northridge 2% 1% 2%
UC Riverside 2% 2%
Long Beach St. 1% 1%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0%