Conference USA
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Western Kentucky 25%   14   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 +2.7 120 C+ +1 131 C+ +1 122 -7 280 0 1
Liberty 14%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 +0.9 133 C +0 153 C +0 139 -4 246 0 1
Kennesaw St. 12%   Negligible 2 - 0 0 - 0 0.0 145 C- -2 221 C+ +2 105 +7 75 0 1
New Mexico St. 12%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -0.4 155 C +0 170 C +0 155 +9 51 0 1
Sam Houston St. 11%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -0.9 163 C +0 169 C -1 177 +8 59 0 1
Middle Tennessee St. 8%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -1.9 180 C- -2 215 C +0 153 +7 64 0 1
Florida International 7%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -1.9 184 C- -1 192 C- -1 180 -4 241 0 1
Jacksonville St. 4%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -3.7 216 C- -2 229 C- -1 215 -11 322 0 1
Missouri St. 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.7 242 D+ -4 271 C- -1 190 0 204 0 1
Delaware 3%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -5.1 254 D+ -3 254 D+ -2 243 -12 325 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 199 Tennessee Tech 97 120 Western Kentucky 94   
Tue, Nov 10 145 Kennesaw St. 88 255 Winthrop 79   
282 Evansville 68 180 Middle Tennessee 73   
Wed, Nov 11 5 Houston 92 216 Jacksonville St. 46   
161 Pepperdine 77 163 Sam Houston St. 85   
254 Delaware 61 135 James Madison 71   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 12 155 New Mexico St. 67 188 UTEP 69 55%   
Fri, Nov 13 3 Illinois 98 163 Sam Houston St. 73 98%   
198 Florida Gulf Coast 78 184 Florida International 75 58%   
180 Middle Tennessee 72 230 Southeast Missouri St. 66 70%   
133 Liberty 73 357 NC Central 56 94%   
Sat, Nov 14 216 Jacksonville St. 71 137 UAB 72 55%   
Sun, Nov 15 155 New Mexico St. 66 66 San Diego St. 79 88%   
213 Colgate 68 254 Delaware 69 56%   
Mon, Nov 16 109 Tulsa 79 120 Western Kentucky 74 68%   
277 Abilene Christian 66 242 Missouri St. 70 67%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Western Kentucky 3 37% 26% 8% 3% 37 19 14 10 7 5 3 2 1 1
Liberty 4 19% 11% 6% 2% 19 17 15 12 10 8 7 5 4 2
Kennesaw St. 4 18% 11% 5% 2% 18 16 13 13 11 9 7 6 4 3
New Mexico St. 4 14% 9% 4% 2% 14 15 13 12 11 10 8 7 5 4
Sam Houston St. 5 14% 7% 5% 2% 14 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 5 4
Middle Tennessee St. 5 8% 5% 2% 1% 8 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 8 7
Florida International 6 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 8 10 11 11 11 12 11 10 9
Jacksonville St. 6 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 7 8 10 11 13 13 14 13
Missouri St. 7 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 7 9 9 11 11 14 15 16
Delaware 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 6 8 9 12 15 17 20

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Western Kentucky 12 - 6 17 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 12 13 15 14 11 8 4 2 0
Liberty 10 - 8 16 - 13 0 0 1 1 2 5 7 10 12 14 15 13 9 7 3 1 0 0
Kennesaw St. 10 - 8 16 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 13 14 13 11 9 6 3 2 0 0
New Mexico St. 10 - 8 14 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 3 7 9 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
Sam Houston St. 10 - 8 13 - 16 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 13 14 13 12 10 7 5 2 1 0 0
Middle Tennessee St. 9 - 9 13 - 14 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 13 14 12 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0
Florida International 8 - 10 14 - 15 0 0 1 2 5 8 10 12 14 13 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Jacksonville St. 8 - 10 12 - 18 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 14 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Missouri St. 7 - 11 11 - 16 0 1 2 5 8 12 13 14 13 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Delaware 7 - 11 11 - 18 0 1 3 6 10 13 15 14 12 10 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Western Kentucky 25% 25% 0% 14 Negligible 2 10 8 4 75
Liberty 14% 14% 0% Negligible 1 4 6 4 1 86
Kennesaw St. 12% 12% 0% Negligible 3 5 4 88
New Mexico St. 12% 12% 0% Negligible 3 5 3 1 88
Sam Houston St. 11% 11% 0% Negligible 3 4 3 1 89
Middle Tennessee St. 8% 8% 0% Negligible 2 3 3 1 92
Florida International 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 2 3 1 93
Jacksonville St. 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 96
Missouri St. 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 96
Delaware 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 97

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 89% 0.9 11 89 0
2nd Round 9% 0.1 91 9 0
Sweet Sixteen 2% 0.0 98 2
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Western Kentucky 25% 2% 24% 3% 1%
Liberty 14% 2% 13% 1%
Kennesaw St. 12% 2% 11% 1%
New Mexico St. 12% 2% 11% 1%
Sam Houston St. 11% 2% 10% 1%
Middle Tennessee St. 8% 3% 7% 1%
Florida International 7% 2% 6% 1%
Jacksonville St. 4% 2% 3%
Missouri St. 4% 2% 3%
Delaware 3% 2% 2%