Preseason Rankings
Conference USA
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Western Kentucky 24%   14   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.1 111 C+ +2 119 C+ +1 110 0 1 0 1
Liberty 16%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.9 128 C+ +2 113 C +0 155 0 1 0 1
New Mexico St. 14%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.8 143 C +0 161 C+ +1 125 0 1 0 1
Kennesaw St. 11%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.2 150 C -1 174 C+ +1 137 0 1 0 1
Middle Tennessee St. 9%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -0.5 161 C -1 172 C +0 158 0 1 0 1
Florida International 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.1 171 C -1 184 C +0 170 0 1 0 1
Sam Houston St. 9%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.4 178 C -1 187 C -1 185 0 1 0 1
Jacksonville St. 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.4 198 C- -1 207 C- -1 196 0 1 0 1
Missouri St. 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.3 238 D+ -3 269 C- -1 206 0 1 0 1
Delaware 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.1 258 C- -2 223 D+ -3 290 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Western Kentucky 3 36% 25% 8% 3% 36 19 13 10 8 5 4 3 2 1
Liberty 4 22% 14% 6% 2% 22 18 14 12 10 7 6 5 3 2
New Mexico St. 4 18% 11% 5% 2% 18 17 14 12 10 9 7 6 5 3
Kennesaw St. 4 17% 10% 5% 2% 17 15 14 12 11 8 8 6 5 3
Middle Tennessee St. 5 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 8 6
Sam Houston St. 5 7% 4% 3% 1% 7 9 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 6
Florida International 5 8% 4% 2% 1% 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 7
Jacksonville St. 6 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 7 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 10
Missouri St. 7 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 5 6 8 9 10 12 13 16 17
Delaware 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 6 8 10 12 14 18 22

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Western Kentucky 12 - 6 18 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 15 13 11 8 4 2 0
Liberty 10 - 8 17 - 12 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0
New Mexico St. 10 - 8 14 - 14 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 13 13 13 12 9 6 3 1 0 0
Kennesaw St. 10 - 8 15 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 13 13 11 8 6 3 1 0 0
Middle Tennessee St. 9 - 8 13 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 14 13 10 7 5 2 1 0 0
Sam Houston St. 9 - 8 12 - 16 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 15 15 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Florida International 8 - 10 14 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Jacksonville St. 8 - 10 14 - 16 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 13 14 12 11 7 5 3 2 1 0 0
Missouri St. 7 - 11 11 - 16 0 1 3 5 9 12 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
Delaware 7 - 11 11 - 18 0 1 4 7 11 13 14 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Western Kentucky 24% 23% 1% 14 Likely Out 1 5 10 5 2 76
Liberty 16% 15% 0% Negligible 2 6 5 3 84
New Mexico St. 14% 13% 0% Negligible 2 5 4 2 86
Kennesaw St. 11% 11% 0% Negligible 1 4 4 3 0 89
Middle Tennessee St. 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 3 3 2 0 91
Florida International 7% 7% 0% Negligible 0 2 3 2 1 93
Sam Houston St. 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 2 3 2 1 91
Jacksonville St. 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 2 2 1 95
Missouri St. 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 96
Delaware 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 1 98

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 98 2 0
1st Round 92% 0.9 8 91 1
2nd Round 15% 0.1 85 15 0
Sweet Sixteen 4% 0.0 96 4
Elite Eight 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Western Kentucky 24% 2% 23% 5% 2%
Liberty 16% 2% 15% 3% 1%
New Mexico St. 14% 2% 13% 2% 1%
Kennesaw St. 11% 2% 10% 2%
Middle Tennessee St. 9% 1% 8% 1%
Florida International 7% 2% 7% 1%
Sam Houston St. 9% 2% 8% 1%
Jacksonville St. 5% 2% 5%
Missouri St. 4% 2% 3%
Delaware 2% 1% 2%