Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Siena 22%   16   Negligible 3 - 1 0 - 0 -2.4 194 C -1 180 C- -2 221 +3 133 0 1
Iona 17%   Negligible 2 - 3 0 - 0 -2.9 201 D+ -4 269 C +1 137 -2 219 0 1
Merrimack 15%   Negligible 1 - 3 0 - 0 -3.8 220 D+ -3 266 C +0 165 -11 316 0 1
Quinnipiac 14%   Negligible 2 - 2 0 - 0 -3.9 226 C- -2 235 C- -1 212 -1 198 0 1
Marist 9%   Negligible 1 - 3 0 - 0 -6.4 275 D -6 328 C +0 168 -14 339 0 1
Fairfield 6%   Negligible 2 - 2 0 - 0 -6.6 280 D -6 323 C- -1 191 -5 245 0 1
Mount St. Mary's 5%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -8.0 299 D- -7 334 C- -1 204 -1 203 0 1
Sacred Heart 5%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -8.9 309 C- -3 238 D- -6 353 -14 344 0 1
Saint Peter's 2%   Negligible 0 - 4 0 - 0 -10.1 329 F+ -9 359 C- -1 197 -21 363 0 1
Manhattan 1%   Negligible 1 - 3 0 - 0 -11.0 339 D- -7 333 D -5 320 -13 331 0 1
Niagara 2%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -11.4 343 D -6 330 D- -5 335 -22 365 0 1
Canisius 1%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -12.7 353 D -5 292 F -8 365 -3 227 0 1
Rider 1%   Negligible 0 - 4 0 - 0 -15.4 361 F+ -9 357 F+ -7 358 -20 359 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 11 329 St. Peter's 41 89 South Carolina 77   
Thu, Nov 12 193 Monmouth 74 226 Quinnipiac 70   
166 Bowling Green 88 343 Niagara 76   
276 Brown 81 353 Canisius 86   
317 Central Connecticut St. 79 309 Sacred Heart 75   
Fri, Nov 13 2 Florida 83 220 Merrimack 54   
299 Mount St. Mary's 62 41 Virginia Tech 82   
158 Hofstra 62 201 Iona 59   
268 Lehigh 65 275 Marist 60   
Sat, Nov 14 361 Rider 62 38 Villanova 99   
276 Brown 74 194 Siena 79   
280 Fairfield 63 350 NJIT 60   
310 Le Moyne 76 339 Manhattan 62   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 15 21 Iowa St. 88 343 Niagara 57 99%   
317 Central Connecticut St. 69 226 Quinnipiac 72 60%   
247 Buffalo 78 353 Canisius 67 84%   
Mon, Nov 16 201 Iona 74 304 Maryland Baltimore Co. 71 60%   
Tue, Nov 17 43 Providence 88 309 Sacred Heart 64 98%   
18 Miami (FL) 92 361 Rider 56 100%   
118 Fordham 77 339 Manhattan 66 85%   
268 Lehigh 66 299 Mount St. Mary's 67 55%   
330 Army 65 275 Marist 66 53%   
329 St. Peter's 61 286 Umass Lowell 67 72%   
Wed, Nov 18 194 Siena 72 14 St. John's 95 97%   
267 Boston University 62 220 Merrimack 68 70%   
Thu, Nov 19 319 Maine 65 226 Quinnipiac 74 79%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Siena 3 30% 21% 7% 2% 30 18 13 11 8 6 5 4 2 2 1 0 0
Iona 4 24% 15% 6% 3% 24 19 15 11 9 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0
Merrimack 4 22% 14% 6% 2% 22 17 14 12 9 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 0
Quinnipiac 4 20% 12% 5% 2% 20 17 14 12 10 8 6 5 3 2 2 1 0
Marist 5 10% 5% 3% 1% 10 11 12 12 11 10 8 8 6 5 4 2 1
Mount St. Mary's 6 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 8 9 11 10 11 10 9 8 6 6 4 3
Fairfield 6 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 4 2
Sacred Heart 7 5% 2% 1% 1% 5 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 3
Saint Peter's 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 6 8 8 10 11 11 11 10 9 7
Niagara 9 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 11 12 12 10
Manhattan 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 3 4 5 7 8 10 12 12 13 13 11
Canisius 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 10 12 14 15 17
Rider 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 10 12 15 18 22

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Siena 13 - 7 19 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 7 11 13 13 13 13 10 6 3 1 0
Iona 13 - 7 18 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 13 15 14 12 8 5 2 1 0
Merrimack 12 - 8 16 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 12 13 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0
Quinnipiac 12 - 8 17 - 13 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 13 13 9 7 4 2 0 0
Marist 11 - 9 13 - 16 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 12 14 14 11 8 6 3 1 1 0 0
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 14 - 16 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 8 10 12 14 14 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Fairfield 10 - 10 15 - 15 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 12 14 12 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Sacred Heart 10 - 10 13 - 18 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 14 13 13 10 7 5 3 1 1 0 0
Saint Peter's 9 - 11 10 - 19 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 12 10 7 5 2 1 1 0 0
Niagara 8 - 12 10 - 20 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 14 13 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Manhattan 8 - 12 11 - 20 0 0 1 3 7 10 13 15 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Canisius 7 - 13 10 - 21 0 1 2 5 8 12 14 15 13 10 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Rider 7 - 13 8 - 22 0 1 3 6 11 13 16 15 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Siena 22% 22% 0% 16 Negligible 3 10 8 78
Iona 17% 17% 0% Negligible 1 6 10 83
Merrimack 15% 15% 0% Negligible 1 5 10 85
Quinnipiac 14% 14% 0% Negligible 1 5 9 86
Marist 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 7 91
Fairfield 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 5 94
Mount St. Mary's 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 5 95
Sacred Heart 5% 5% 0% Negligible 5 95
Saint Peter's 2% 2% 0% Negligible 2 98
Manhattan 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99
Niagara 2% 2% 0% Negligible 2 98
Canisius 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99
Rider 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 56% 0.6 44 56
2nd Round 2% 0.0 98 2
Sweet Sixteen 0% 0.0 100 0
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Siena 22% 16% 14% 1%
Iona 17% 15% 10%
Merrimack 15% 14% 8%
Quinnipiac 14% 13% 8%
Marist 9% 8% 4%
Fairfield 6% 6% 3%
Mount St. Mary's 5% 5% 2%
Sacred Heart 5% 5% 3%
Saint Peter's 2% 2% 1%
Manhattan 1% 1% 1%
Niagara 2% 2% 1%
Canisius 1% 1%
Rider 1% 1%