Preseason Rankings
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Merrimack 19%   16   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.3 176 C- -2 239 C+ +1 124 0 1 0 1
Fairfield 12%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.4 220 C- -2 242 C- -1 199 0 1 0 1
Iona 12%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.7 229 C- -2 238 C- -2 222 0 1 0 1
Quinnipiac 10%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.8 230 D+ -3 271 C -1 181 0 1 0 1
Siena 11%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.7 251 C- -2 245 D+ -2 256 0 1 0 1
Marist 10%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.9 253 D -5 326 C +0 148 0 1 0 1
Saint Peter's 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.1 288 D -5 317 D+ -2 245 0 1 0 1
Mount St. Mary's 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.5 296 D -5 325 D+ -2 250 0 1 0 1
Sacred Heart 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.8 303 D+ -3 259 D- -5 341 0 1 0 1
Manhattan 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -8.8 318 D+ -4 285 D- -5 339 0 1 0 1
Niagara 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -9.0 322 D+ -4 287 D- -5 343 0 1 0 1
Canisius 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -11.1 345 D -4 299 F+ -7 363 0 1 0 1
Rider 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -12.9 356 D- -7 349 D- -6 353 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Fairfield 4 23% 15% 6% 2% 23 15 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1
Iona 4 23% 15% 6% 2% 23 16 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1
Marist 5 17% 11% 5% 2% 17 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 2 2
Siena 5 17% 11% 4% 2% 17 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 2
Merrimack 5 10% 5% 3% 2% 10 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1
Mount St. Mary's 6 10% 5% 3% 1% 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4
Saint Peter's 6 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 4
Quinnipiac 7 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 3
Sacred Heart 7 8% 5% 2% 1% 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 5
Manhattan 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 8
Canisius 9 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 10 12 14 15
Rider 9 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 14 15
Niagara 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 12 13 14 14

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Fairfield 12 - 8 17 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 7 9 12 12 13 12 10 7 5 3 1 0 0
Iona 12 - 8 17 - 15 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 7 9 11 13 13 12 11 8 4 2 1 0 0
Marist 11 - 9 15 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 10 12 13 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
Siena 11 - 9 15 - 17 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 11 13 13 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
Merrimack 11 - 5 15 - 10 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 9 12 15 16 15 12 7 3 1
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 13 - 17 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 13 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Saint Peter's 10 - 10 13 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 13 13 12 9 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Quinnipiac 9 - 7 13 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 13 15 15 13 10 6 3 1 0
Sacred Heart 9 - 11 13 - 18 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 10 12 13 13 11 8 6 5 2 1 1 0 0 0
Manhattan 8 - 12 13 - 18 0 0 1 2 5 7 10 12 13 13 11 9 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0
Canisius 7 - 13 10 - 21 0 1 2 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
Rider 7 - 13 9 - 21 0 1 2 5 8 11 14 14 14 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Niagara 7 - 9 11 - 15 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 15 15 12 8 5 3 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Merrimack 19% 19% 0% 16 Negligible 1 4 8 5 81
Fairfield 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 5 7 88
Iona 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 5 7 88
Quinnipiac 10% 10% 0% Negligible 1 4 4 90
Siena 11% 11% 0% Negligible 1 4 7 89
Marist 10% 10% 0% Negligible 3 6 90
Saint Peter's 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 4 94
Mount St. Mary's 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 5 94
Sacred Heart 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 4 95
Manhattan 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 3 97
Niagara 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 2 97
Canisius 2% 2% 0% Negligible 2 98
Rider 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 60% 0.6 40 60
2nd Round 3% 0.0 97 3
Sweet Sixteen 0% 0.0 100 0
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Merrimack 19% 10% 14% 1%
Fairfield 12% 10% 8%
Iona 12% 10% 7%
Quinnipiac 10% 8% 7%
Siena 11% 9% 7%
Marist 10% 9% 5%
Saint Peter's 6% 5% 3%
Mount St. Mary's 6% 5% 3%
Sacred Heart 5% 5% 3%
Manhattan 3% 3% 1%
Niagara 3% 2% 1%
Canisius 2% 2% 1%
Rider 1% 1% 1%