Mid-American
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Akron 24%   13   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +5.4 100 C+ +3 107 B- +3 93 +11 31 0 1
Miami (OH) 22%   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +3.9 112 B- +3 102 C+ +1 125 +13 22 0 1
Toledo 11%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 +0.5 145 C +0 159 C +0 141 +1 185 0 1
Kent St. 9%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 +0.3 147 C+ +1 136 C -1 182 -15 333 0 1
Ohio 9%   Negligible 2 - 0 0 - 0 +0.2 149 C+ +2 110 D+ -2 239 +8 70 0 1
Massachusetts 7%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -0.5 160 C- -1 198 C+ +1 132 +3 158 0 1
Bowling Green 5%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -1.4 172 C +0 174 C- -1 194 +12 27 0 1
Western Michigan 5%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -1.9 180 C +0 157 C- -2 236 -11 312 0 1
Eastern Michigan 5%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -2.2 183 C- -2 231 C +0 151 +6 95 0 1
Buffalo 2%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -5.1 250 C- -2 232 D+ -3 265 -10 299 0 1
Central Michigan 2%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -5.2 251 C- -2 228 D+ -3 278 +5 123 0 1
Ball St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -5.8 267 D -5 303 C- -1 190 -18 348 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 5 7 Michigan St. 91 145 Toledo 61   
250 Buffalo 61 72 Pittsburgh 80   
Fri, Nov 6 183 Eastern Michigan 53 44 Xavier 76   
97 Boston College 71 160 Massachusetts 55   
267 Ball St. 66 207 Indiana St. 69   
Sat, Nov 7 289 Bellarmine 73 112 Miami (OH) 80   
194 Marshall 76 145 Toledo 81   
293 N.C. A&T 70 149 Ohio 80   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 245 Campbell 73 180 Western Michigan 79 72%   
Mon, Nov 9 172 Bowling Green 82 320 Cleveland St. 71 84%   
Tue, Nov 10 145 Toledo 74 113 Wright St. 75 51%   
251 Central Michigan 73 217 Youngstown St. 71 56%   
Wed, Nov 11 147 Kent St. 74 111 UNC Wilmington 81 74%   
160 Massachusetts 79 280 Umass Lowell 69 81%   
Thu, Nov 12 256 Purdue Fort Wayne 72 180 Western Michigan 73 52%   
172 Bowling Green 80 343 Niagara 67 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Akron 3 38% 28% 8% 2% 38 21 13 9 6 4 3 2 1 1 0 0
Miami (OH) 3 31% 22% 8% 2% 31 21 14 10 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 0
Toledo 5 11% 7% 3% 1% 11 12 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 3 1
Ohio 5 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 12 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 2
Kent St. 5 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 2
Massachusetts 6 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 3
Bowling Green 6 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 5
Western Michigan 7 5% 2% 1% 1% 5 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 5
Eastern Michigan 7 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 8 6
Central Michigan 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 7 9 10 12 14 16 16
Buffalo 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 14 17 19
Ball St. 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 3 4 4 6 8 9 12 14 17 21

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
Akron 15 - 7 20 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 5 7 10 12 14 14 13 10 6 3 1 0
Miami (OH) 15 - 7 20 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 6 8 11 12 13 13 11 8 5 2 1 0
Toledo 12 - 10 16 - 15 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 9 12 12 12 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
Ohio 12 - 10 17 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 12 12 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0
Kent St. 12 - 10 15 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 11 12 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Massachusetts 11 - 11 16 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 10 11 12 12 11 9 6 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Bowling Green 11 - 11 15 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 9 11 12 12 11 9 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Western Michigan 10 - 12 13 - 15 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 12 12 11 9 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Eastern Michigan 10 - 12 13 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 11 12 12 11 10 8 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0
Central Michigan 8 - 14 10 - 19 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 12 13 12 10 8 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Buffalo 8 - 14 10 - 19 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 13 11 10 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Ball St. 8 - 14 9 - 19 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 13 13 11 9 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Akron 24% 22% 2% 13 Likely Out 1 5 11 5 1 76
Miami (OH) 22% 21% 1% Likely Out 1 4 11 5 1 78
Toledo 11% 10% 0% Negligible 1 4 4 2 89
Kent St. 9% 9% 0% Negligible 0 3 4 2 91
Ohio 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 3 4 2 91
Massachusetts 7% 7% 0% Negligible 2 3 2 93
Bowling Green 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 2 2 95
Western Michigan 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 2 0 95
Eastern Michigan 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 2 2 0 95
Buffalo 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 0 98
Central Michigan 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 98
Ball St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 97 3
1st Round 95% 1.0 5 93 1
2nd Round 13% 0.1 87 13 0
Sweet Sixteen 3% 0.0 97 3 0
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 24% 1% 23% 4% 1%
Miami (OH) 22% 1% 22% 4% 1%
Toledo 11% 1% 10% 1%
Kent St. 9% 1% 9% 1%
Ohio 9% 1% 9% 1%
Massachusetts 7% 1% 7% 1%
Bowling Green 5% 1% 5%
Western Michigan 5% 1% 5%
Eastern Michigan 5% 1% 4%
Buffalo 2% 1% 1%
Central Michigan 2% 1% 1%
Ball St. 1% 1% 1%