Missouri Valley
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Murray St. 29%   13   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +7.2 83 B +5 77 B- +3 95 +7 82 0 1
Illinois-Chicago 22%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +5.6 96 C+ +2 111 B- +3 88 +6 102 0 1
Illinois St. 13%   Likely Out 0 - 1 0 - 0 +3.4 116 B- +3 103 C +1 137 -1 232 0 1
Valparaiso 14%   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +2.8 120 C +1 144 C+ +2 103 +25 5 0 1
Belmont 9%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 +2.2 126 C+ +1 134 C+ +1 123 0 195 0 1
Drake 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.5 134 C+ +1 131 C +0 146 0 199 0 1
Northern Iowa 6%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -0.3 156 C +0 155 C -1 171 -8 291 0 1
Bradley 2%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.0 198 D+ -3 260 C +0 144 -14 328 0 1
Indiana St. 2%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -3.3 207 C- -2 208 C- -2 220 -2 237 0 1
Southern Illinois 2%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.3 208 C- -2 225 C- -1 203 -16 337 0 1
Evansville 0%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -7.2 288 D -5 295 D+ -3 254 0 194 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 6 43 Purdue 80 120 Valparaiso 83   
224 Robert Morris 56 96 Illinois-Chicago 79   
268 UMKC 100 208 Southern Illinois 93   
267 Ball St. 66 207 Indiana St. 69   
Sat, Nov 7 124 Furman 98 156 Northern Iowa 83   
198 Bradley 52 127 Pacific 63   
83 Murray St. 93 308 Northwestern St. 71   
288 Evansville 78 325 Southern Indiana 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 134 Drake 79 315 Southern 66 89%   
Mon, Nov 9 116 Illinois St. 63 43 Purdue 75 87%   
96 Illinois-Chicago 78 284 UNC Greensboro 62 92%   
Tue, Nov 10 198 Bradley 62 110 Davidson 72 83%   
126 Belmont 79 218 Lipscomb 76 62%   
192 Green Bay 65 156 Northern Iowa 70 70%   
349 Alcorn St. 69 83 Murray St. 91 97%   
288 Evansville 63 173 Middle Tennessee 72 79%   
Wed, Nov 11 186 South Dakota St. 67 120 Valparaiso 69 59%   
207 Indiana St. 76 259 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 70 70%   
Thu, Nov 12 122 Richmond 76 208 Southern Illinois 73 62%   
198 Bradley 73 358 Coppin St. 63 84%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Murray St. 3 40% 29% 9% 2% 40 22 14 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0
Illinois-Chicago 3 28% 19% 7% 2% 28 21 16 11 9 6 4 2 2 1 0
Illinois St. 4 15% 9% 4% 1% 15 16 15 14 12 10 8 6 3 2 1
Valparaiso 4 15% 9% 5% 1% 15 15 15 14 12 10 8 5 4 2 1
Belmont 5 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 13 13 13 12 11 10 7 5 3 1
Drake 5 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 10 12 12 13 12 11 8 7 5 2
Northern Iowa 6 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 7 9 11 12 13 13 11 9 6 3
Southern Illinois 8 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 2 4 6 7 10 12 14 16 15 12
Bradley 8 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 15 12
Indiana St. 8 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 2 4 6 7 9 12 15 16 16 12
Evansville 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 2 2 4 6 10 15 22 37

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Murray St. 14 - 6 23 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 11 14 15 15 13 9 5 1 0
Illinois-Chicago 13 - 7 21 - 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 10 12 14 14 12 10 6 3 1 0
Illinois St. 12 - 8 17 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 13 13 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
Valparaiso 12 - 8 18 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
Belmont 11 - 9 17 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 10 12 13 13 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Drake 10 - 10 17 - 14 0 0 0 1 3 4 7 10 12 13 13 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Northern Iowa 10 - 10 14 - 16 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 11 13 13 12 10 7 5 3 1 1 0 0
Southern Illinois 8 - 12 11 - 18 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 13 12 9 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
Bradley 8 - 12 11 - 18 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 13 12 10 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0
Indiana St. 8 - 12 11 - 17 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 9 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Evansville 6 - 14 9 - 20 1 3 7 12 15 15 14 12 9 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Murray St. 29% 26% 4% 13 Likely Out 1 2 1 11 11 2 71
Illinois-Chicago 22% 20% 2% Likely Out 1 1 7 10 2 78
Illinois St. 13% 13% 1% Likely Out 3 7 2 1 87
Valparaiso 14% 13% 1% Likely Out 1 5 6 1 86
Belmont 9% 9% 0% Negligible 2 5 2 1 91
Drake 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 4 2 1 92
Northern Iowa 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 2 2 1 94
Bradley 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 0 98
Indiana St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 98
Southern Illinois 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 0 0 98
Evansville 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.1 93 7 0
1st Round 99% 1.0 1 95 4 0
2nd Round 21% 0.2 79 20 0
Sweet Sixteen 6% 0.1 94 6 0
Elite Eight 1% 0.0 99 1 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Murray St. 29% 2% 28% 7% 2%
Illinois-Chicago 22% 1% 21% 5% 1%
Illinois St. 13% 1% 13% 2% 1%
Valparaiso 14% 1% 13% 3% 1%
Belmont 9% 1% 9% 1%
Drake 8% 1% 8% 1%
Northern Iowa 6% 1% 6% 1%
Bradley 2% 1% 2%
Indiana St. 2% 2%
Southern Illinois 2% 2%
Evansville 0%