Preseason Rankings
Missouri Valley
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Murray St. 19%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.6 100 B- +4 78 C+ +1 128 0 1 0 1
Illinois-Chicago 22%   13   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.6 101 C+ +2 102 B- +2 98 0 1 0 1
Illinois St. 15%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.9 113 C+ +2 116 C+ +1 120 0 1 0 1
Belmont 11%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.0 124 C+ +2 112 C +0 154 0 1 0 1
Drake 10%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.5 133 C+ +1 125 C +0 153 0 1 0 1
Northern Iowa 10%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.7 144 C +0 163 C+ +1 126 0 1 0 1
Valparaiso 9%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.6 146 C +0 162 C+ +1 134 0 1 0 1
Bradley 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.5 179 C- -2 210 C +0 156 0 1 0 1
Indiana St. 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.0 209 C- -2 212 C- -1 214 0 1 0 1
Southern Illinois 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.0 211 D+ -4 289 C+ +1 122 0 1 0 1
Evansville 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.5 282 D -4 306 D+ -2 242 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Illinois-Chicago 3 29% 20% 7% 2% 29 19 14 11 8 6 5 3 2 1 0
Murray St. 3 26% 18% 7% 2% 26 19 14 12 9 7 5 4 2 1 1
Illinois St. 4 18% 11% 5% 2% 18 16 14 12 11 9 7 5 4 3 1
Belmont 5 13% 8% 4% 2% 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 2
Drake 5 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 6 5 2
Northern Iowa 5 11% 6% 3% 1% 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 8 7 5 3
Valparaiso 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 6 3
Bradley 7 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 5 7 8 9 10 12 12 13 12 8
Southern Illinois 7 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 4 5 6 8 9 11 13 15 15 12
Indiana St. 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 6 8 9 11 13 14 15 12
Evansville 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 3 5 7 10 14 22 35

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Illinois-Chicago 13 - 7 20 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 2 1 0
Murray St. 13 - 7 20 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 14 13 11 7 5 2 1 0
Illinois St. 12 - 8 17 - 13 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 8 11 13 13 12 10 8 5 3 1 0 0
Belmont 11 - 9 17 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 10 12 13 13 11 8 6 3 2 0 0 0
Drake 11 - 9 17 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 12 13 13 10 7 5 3 1 0 0
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 15 - 15 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 12 12 13 11 10 8 5 3 1 1 0 0
Valparaiso 10 - 10 16 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 10 12 13 12 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Bradley 9 - 11 14 - 16 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 12 13 12 12 10 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Southern Illinois 8 - 12 12 - 17 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 13 14 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Indiana St. 8 - 12 11 - 16 0 1 1 3 6 9 11 13 13 12 10 8 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Evansville 6 - 14 9 - 20 1 3 5 10 14 15 15 13 10 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Murray St. 19% 18% 2% Likely Out 1 6 8 3 1 81
Illinois-Chicago 22% 20% 2% 13 Likely Out 1 1 7 8 3 1 78
Illinois St. 15% 14% 1% Likely Out 4 6 3 1 85
Belmont 11% 10% 1% Likely Out 2 4 3 1 89
Drake 10% 9% 0% Negligible 2 4 3 1 90
Northern Iowa 10% 9% 0% Negligible 2 4 2 1 90
Valparaiso 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 1 91
Bradley 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 0 96
Indiana St. 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 0 97
Southern Illinois 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 0 97
Evansville 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.1 95 5 0
1st Round 97% 1.0 3 94 3
2nd Round 19% 0.2 81 19 0
Sweet Sixteen 5% 0.1 95 5 0
Elite Eight 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Murray St. 19% 1% 19% 4% 1%
Illinois-Chicago 22% 1% 21% 5% 2%
Illinois St. 15% 1% 14% 3% 1%
Belmont 11% 1% 10% 2%
Drake 10% 1% 9% 2%
Northern Iowa 10% 1% 9% 2%
Valparaiso 9% 1% 8% 2%
Bradley 4% 1% 4%
Indiana St. 3% 1% 3%
Southern Illinois 3% 1% 3%
Evansville 1% 1%