Pac-12
2023-24 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Gonzaga 96%   5   Likely In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +19.0 9 A +12 5 A- +7 26 +22 7 0 1
Utah St. 59%   11   Bubble - Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +12.1 48 B+ +8 39 B +5 57 +2 171 0 1
Boise St. 31%   Bubble - Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +10.0 64 B +5 72 B +5 50 +13 29 0 1
San Diego St. 39%   Bubble - Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +9.5 66 B +5 75 B +5 56 +15 23 0 1
Oregon St. 13%   Likely Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +7.4 80 B +6 60 C+ +1 120 +5 105 0 1
Colorado St. 17%   Likely Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +7.1 84 B +5 73 C+ +2 107 +9 53 0 1
Texas St. 3%   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +3.4 116 B- +3 104 C +1 131 +9 50 0 1
Washington St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -0.2 150 C+ +2 123 C- -2 229 -9 294 0 1
Fresno St. 0%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -2.1 187 C -1 176 C- -1 216 0 195 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 64 Boise St. 100 91 Butler 81   
Mon, Nov 9 170 Eastern Washington 84 80 Oregon St. 94   
Tue, Nov 10 48 Utah St. 118 289 Utah Tech 86   
130 Duquesne 72 150 Washington St. 71   
116 Texas St. 72 263 UT Rio Grande Valley 65   
187 Fresno St. 95 219 Georgia St. 92   
Wed, Nov 11 197 Bethune-Cookman 75 66 San Diego St. 88   
64 Boise St. 111 258 Oakland 79   
84 Colorado St. 87 223 Portland St. 71   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 13 106 UC San Diego 70 48 Utah St. 80 83%   
245 Southern Miss 67 116 Texas St. 78 85%   
365 Mississippi Valley 59 80 Oregon St. 89 99%   
Sat, Nov 14 9 Gonzaga 84 27 LSU 77 75%   
84 Colorado St. 78 148 Loyola Chicago 68 83%   
187 Fresno St. 75 225 UC Riverside 70 69%   
Sun, Nov 15 64 Boise St. 71 20 Nebraska 78 74%   
155 New Mexico St. 66 66 San Diego St. 79 88%   
116 Texas St. 75 201 Texas San Antonio 71 63%   
Mon, Nov 16 80 Oregon St. 86 300 East Texas A&M 67 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Gonzaga 2 68% 54% 12% 2% 68 19 8 3 1 1 0 0 0
Utah St. 3 24% 14% 8% 2% 24 29 19 12 9 4 2 1 0
San Diego St. 4 11% 6% 4% 1% 11 20 21 18 13 9 5 2 1
Boise St. 4 9% 4% 3% 1% 9 17 20 19 15 10 6 3 1
Colorado St. 5 4% 2% 2% 1% 4 10 15 17 18 16 11 6 2
Oregon St. 5 4% 2% 2% 1% 4 10 15 17 18 17 12 6 2
Texas St. 6 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 3 6 10 13 18 23 17 9
Washington St. 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 4 8 12 21 29 22
Fresno St. 8 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 2 4 8 15 27 44

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 13 - 3 22 - 6 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 12 19 22 20 12 4
Utah St. 11 - 5 22 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 9 13 16 18 15 12 5 2 0
San Diego St. 9 - 7 17 - 10 0 0 0 1 3 6 10 14 16 17 14 10 5 2 1 0
Boise St. 9 - 7 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 15 17 16 13 8 4 1 0 0
Colorado St. 8 - 8 17 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 7 12 16 16 15 12 8 4 2 1 0
Oregon St. 8 - 8 20 - 11 0 0 1 2 5 8 12 16 16 15 12 8 4 2 0 0
Texas St. 6 - 10 17 - 14 0 1 3 8 12 16 17 15 12 8 4 2 1 0 0
Washington St. 5 - 11 10 - 21 1 4 10 15 18 18 14 10 6 3 1 0 0 0
Fresno St. 4 - 12 11 - 19 3 10 17 20 18 14 9 5 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Gonzaga 96% 43% 92% 5 Likely In 11 9 10 11 11 10 10 7 6 5 5 1 4
Utah St. 59% 20% 49% 11 Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 13 7 41
Boise St. 31% 10% 23% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 4 5 8 9 69
San Diego St. 39% 12% 31% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 5 6 9 9 61
Oregon St. 13% 6% 7% Likely Out 1 2 3 6 87
Colorado St. 17% 6% 11% Likely Out 1 2 2 5 6 83
Texas St. 3% 2% 1% Likely Out 0 1 2 0 97
Washington St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99
Fresno St. 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 2.6 7 39 41 11 1 0
1st Round 100% 2.3 15 50 30 5 0
2nd Round 85% 1.3 15 49 30 5 0
Sweet Sixteen 50% 0.6 50 43 7 0
Elite Eight 25% 0.3 75 23 1 0
Final Four 11% 0.1 89 11 0
Final Game 5% 0.1 95 5 0
Champion 2% 0.0 98 2

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 96% 7% 93% 68% 36% 18% 9% 4% 2%
Utah St. 59% 18% 50% 26% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Boise St. 31% 13% 24% 10% 3% 1%
San Diego St. 39% 15% 31% 14% 5% 2% 1%
Oregon St. 13% 5% 11% 4% 1%
Colorado St. 17% 7% 13% 4% 1%
Texas St. 3% 1% 3% 1%
Washington St. 1% 1%
Fresno St. 0%