Preseason Rankings
Pac-12
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Gonzaga 93%   5   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.1 13 A +10 7 A- +7 15 0 1 0 1
Utah St. 48%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +10.3 55 B+ +6 49 B +4 69 0 1 0 1
San Diego St. 33%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.0 71 B- +4 76 B +4 66 0 1 0 1
Boise St. 23%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.5 75 B- +3 87 B +4 62 0 1 0 1
Colorado St. 21%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.0 78 B +5 60 C+ +2 104 0 1 0 1
Oregon St. 12%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.4 94 B +4 72 C+ +1 114 0 1 0 1
Texas St. 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.4 118 C+ +2 115 C +1 143 0 1 0 1
Washington St. 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.8 141 C+ +1 130 C +0 166 0 1 0 1
Fresno St. 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 0.0 155 C- -1 193 C+ +1 119 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Gonzaga 2 68% 54% 12% 2% 68 18 8 3 2 1 0 0 0
Utah St. 3 19% 11% 6% 2% 19 26 19 14 10 6 4 2 1
San Diego St. 4 13% 7% 4% 1% 13 20 19 15 12 9 6 4 2
Boise St. 4 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 15 17 16 15 12 9 6 3
Colorado St. 4 7% 3% 3% 1% 7 14 16 16 15 13 9 6 3
Oregon St. 5 4% 2% 2% 1% 4 9 13 14 16 15 13 10 6
Texas St. 6 1% 1% 1% 0% 1 4 7 10 12 16 18 18 14
Washington St. 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 3 6 8 11 14 18 20 20
Fresno St. 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 2 3 6 8 12 17 22 31

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 12 - 4 21 - 7 0 0 0 1 2 4 8 14 18 21 18 10 3
Utah St. 10 - 6 21 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 8 12 14 17 15 12 8 4 1 0
San Diego St. 9 - 7 16 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 12 14 16 15 13 9 5 2 1 0
Boise St. 8 - 8 18 - 12 0 0 0 2 4 7 10 13 16 16 13 10 6 3 1 0 0
Colorado St. 8 - 8 17 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 0 0
Oregon St. 7 - 9 18 - 13 0 0 1 3 6 10 14 15 16 13 10 6 3 1 0 0 0
Texas St. 6 - 10 17 - 14 0 2 4 8 13 16 16 14 11 8 5 2 1 0 0 0
Washington St. 6 - 10 12 - 19 0 2 6 11 14 16 16 13 10 6 3 2 1 0 0 0
Fresno St. 5 - 11 13 - 17 1 4 9 14 17 17 14 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Gonzaga 93% 43% 88% 5 Likely In 10 9 10 11 9 9 9 8 7 5 6 2 7
Utah St. 48% 16% 38% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 6 7 10 8 52
San Diego St. 33% 12% 24% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 67
Boise St. 23% 9% 15% Likely Out 1 1 3 3 6 8 77
Colorado St. 21% 8% 14% Likely Out 1 1 2 3 5 7 79
Oregon St. 12% 6% 6% Likely Out 1 1 3 5 1 88
Texas St. 4% 3% 1% Likely Out 0 0 1 2 1 96
Washington St. 4% 2% 2% Likely Out 0 0 1 1 0 0 96
Fresno St. 2% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 0 0 98

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 2.4 12 45 35 7 0 0
1st Round 100% 2.1 0 21 51 25 3 0
2nd Round 82% 1.2 18 53 25 4 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 47% 0.5 53 40 6 0
Elite Eight 24% 0.3 76 23 1 0
Final Four 12% 0.1 88 11 0
Final Game 6% 0.1 94 6 0
Champion 3% 0.0 97 3

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 93% 8% 89% 64% 35% 18% 9% 5% 2%
Utah St. 48% 15% 41% 20% 8% 3% 1% 1%
San Diego St. 33% 12% 28% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Boise St. 23% 9% 18% 7% 2% 1%
Colorado St. 21% 8% 17% 7% 2% 1%
Oregon St. 12% 4% 10% 3% 1%
Texas St. 4% 1% 4% 1%
Washington St. 4% 1% 3% 1%
Fresno St. 2% 2%