Patriot League
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
American 27%   16   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -1.8 179 C- -1 199 C -1 172 +2 175 0 1
Colgate 23%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -3.3 206 C -1 182 D+ -3 255 -12 314 0 1
Lehigh 17%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -5.0 246 D+ -4 291 C -1 177 +4 134 0 1
Boston University 12%   Negligible 2 - 0 0 - 0 -6.1 270 C- -1 200 D -5 323 +8 72 0 1
Navy 5%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -9.6 324 D- -8 349 C- -2 231 -3 257 0 1
Army 3%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -10.5 330 D -6 325 D -5 326 +15 16 0 1
Lafayette 4%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -10.6 332 F+ -9 360 C- -2 223 -7 284 0 1
Loyola Maryland 4%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -11.6 345 D- -7 335 D -5 331 -15 332 0 1
Bucknell 3%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -12.2 350 D- -7 339 D- -5 344 -13 324 0 1
Holy Cross 2%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -13.2 355 D -6 326 F+ -7 363 -3 251 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 5 200 Cornell 64 246 Lehigh 71   
359 Delaware St. 60 324 Navy 66   
Fri, Nov 6 179 American 73 59 Clemson 82   
355 Holy Cross 66 39 Villanova 95   
270 Boston University 72 274 Brown 67   
345 Loyola Maryland 57 304 Mount St. Mary's 68   
Sat, Nov 7 206 Colgate 74 242 Drexel 77   
332 Lafayette 57 136 Saint Joseph's 67   
350 Bucknell 62 165 Old Dominion 82   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 274 Brown 63 246 Lehigh 68 67%   
Mon, Nov 9 270 Boston University 61 92 Northwestern 77 92%   
Tue, Nov 10 350 Bucknell 57 12 Virginia 89 99%   
330 Army 64 348 New Haven 65 56%   
Wed, Nov 11 206 Colgate 62 17 St. John's 85 97%   
179 American 70 242 Drexel 71 50%   
324 Navy 67 138 Penn 75 77%   
124 Furman 79 355 Holy Cross 67 88%   
Thu, Nov 12 345 Loyola Maryland 59 182 Towson 72 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
American 2 43% 31% 9% 2% 43 23 14 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
Colgate 3 32% 22% 8% 2% 32 24 16 11 7 4 3 2 1 0
Lehigh 4 20% 13% 6% 2% 20 20 17 14 10 7 5 3 2 1
Boston University 4 13% 8% 4% 1% 13 16 16 15 12 9 7 6 3 2
Navy 6 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 7 10 12 14 13 12 11 9 7
Lafayette 6 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 8 11 12 13 14 13 12 9
Loyola Maryland 6 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 5 7 10 12 13 14 14 13 11
Army 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 7 9 11 12 13 14 13 14
Bucknell 7 2% 1% 0% 0% 2 4 6 9 11 12 14 15 15 14
Holy Cross 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 14 15 16 18

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
American 13 - 5 18 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 14 16 15 12 7 3 1
Colgate 12 - 6 15 - 15 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 14 15 15 12 9 5 2 0
Lehigh 11 - 7 16 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 13 15 14 12 8 5 2 1 0
Boston University 10 - 8 16 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 14 12 9 5 3 1 0 0
Navy 8 - 10 13 - 17 0 0 1 2 4 8 11 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Lafayette 8 - 10 11 - 19 0 0 1 3 6 10 13 15 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 10 - 18 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 15 14 13 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Army 7 - 11 11 - 19 0 1 2 4 8 11 13 14 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Bucknell 7 - 11 9 - 22 0 1 2 5 8 12 15 15 14 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Holy Cross 7 - 11 9 - 21 0 1 3 6 10 13 16 15 13 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
American 27% 27% 0% 16 Negligible 1 2 11 13 73
Colgate 23% 23% 0% Negligible 1 7 15 77
Lehigh 17% 17% 0% Negligible 4 12 84
Boston University 12% 12% 0% Negligible 2 9 88
Navy 5% 5% 0% Negligible 5 95
Army 3% 3% 0% Negligible 3 97
Lafayette 4% 4% 0% Negligible 4 96
Loyola Maryland 4% 4% 0% Negligible 4 96
Bucknell 3% 3% 0% Negligible 3 97
Holy Cross 2% 2% 0% Negligible 2 98

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100
1st Round 55% 0.5 45 55
2nd Round 2% 0.0 98 2
Sweet Sixteen 0% 0.0 100 0
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
American 27% 22% 17% 1%
Colgate 23% 21% 13% 1%
Lehigh 17% 15% 9%
Boston University 12% 11% 6%
Navy 5% 5% 3%
Army 3% 3% 2%
Lafayette 4% 4% 2%
Loyola Maryland 4% 4% 2%
Bucknell 3% 3% 1%
Holy Cross 2% 2% 1%