Preseason Rankings
Patriot League
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
American 25%   16   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.9 186 C- -1 189 C- -1 190 0 1 0 1
Colgate 23%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.9 207 C- -1 194 C- -2 229 0 1 0 1
Lehigh 15%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.2 259 D+ -4 277 C- -2 219 0 1 0 1
Navy 11%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.4 281 D -4 305 C- -2 238 0 1 0 1
Boston University 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.7 300 D+ -3 274 D -4 324 0 1 0 1
Army 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.1 336 D -5 328 D- -5 336 0 1 0 1
Lafayette 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.3 339 D- -7 345 D -3 293 0 1 0 1
Bucknell 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.4 340 D- -7 343 D -4 311 0 1 0 1
Loyola Maryland 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.8 342 D -5 327 D- -5 349 0 1 0 1
Holy Cross 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -11.5 350 D -5 332 D- -6 354 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
American 3 39% 28% 9% 2% 39 22 14 9 6 4 3 2 1 1
Colgate 3 32% 22% 8% 2% 32 22 14 10 7 5 3 2 1 1
Lehigh 4 18% 11% 5% 2% 18 18 16 13 10 8 7 5 3 2
Navy 5 12% 7% 4% 1% 12 14 15 13 12 10 9 7 5 3
Boston University 5 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 9 11 13 12 12 11 10 8 7
Bucknell 6 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 6 8 10 11 12 13 13 13 11
Lafayette 6 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 6 8 10 11 12 13 13 13 11
Loyola Maryland 6 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 5 8 9 11 12 12 13 14 12
Army 6 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 5 7 9 10 12 13 13 13 14
Holy Cross 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 7 8 10 12 13 14 14 15

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
American 12 - 6 17 - 14 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 15 13 9 6 3 0
Colgate 12 - 6 16 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 11 14 14 14 11 8 4 2 0
Lehigh 10 - 8 15 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0
Navy 10 - 8 16 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Boston University 9 - 9 13 - 17 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Bucknell 8 - 10 10 - 21 0 0 1 4 6 10 13 15 14 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Lafayette 8 - 10 11 - 19 0 0 1 4 6 10 13 14 14 13 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 18 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Army 7 - 11 11 - 19 0 1 2 4 8 10 13 15 14 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Holy Cross 7 - 11 10 - 20 0 1 2 5 8 11 14 15 14 12 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
American 25% 25% 0% 16 Negligible 1 3 9 12 75
Colgate 23% 23% 0% Negligible 1 2 8 13 77
Lehigh 15% 15% 0% Negligible 1 3 11 85
Navy 11% 11% 0% Negligible 2 9 89
Boston University 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 6 93
Army 4% 4% 0% Negligible 4 96
Lafayette 4% 4% 0% Negligible 4 96
Bucknell 4% 4% 0% Negligible 4 96
Loyola Maryland 4% 4% 0% Negligible 4 96
Holy Cross 3% 3% 0% Negligible 3 97

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 56% 0.6 44 56 0
2nd Round 3% 0.0 97 3
Sweet Sixteen 0% 0.0 100 0
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
American 25% 19% 16% 1%
Colgate 23% 19% 14% 1%
Lehigh 15% 13% 8%
Navy 11% 10% 6%
Boston University 7% 7% 3%
Army 4% 4% 2%
Lafayette 4% 4% 2%
Bucknell 4% 4% 2%
Loyola Maryland 4% 4% 2%
Holy Cross 3% 3% 2%