Southland
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
McNeese St. 44%   14   Likely Out 1 - 1 0 - 0 +5.7 94 B- +4 89 C+ +2 106 +4 145 0 1
Stephen F. Austin 22%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.1 137 C +0 172 C+ +1 119 0 199 0 1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -2.6 191 D+ -4 287 C+ +2 113 +2 167 0 1
Lamar 5%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -4.3 232 C- -2 237 C- -2 225 -16 341 0 1
SE Louisiana 4%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -5.3 255 C- -2 234 D+ -3 271 +8 56 0 1
UT Rio Grande Valley 4%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -5.5 258 D+ -4 282 C- -2 215 +2 173 0 1
Houston Christian 3%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -5.7 261 D+ -4 290 C- -1 208 0 191 0 1
New Orleans 2%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -6.5 273 D+ -3 253 D+ -3 294 +4 136 0 1
East Texas A&M 3%   Negligible 2 - 0 0 - 0 -6.7 277 D -5 311 C- -2 216 +23 7 0 1
Nicholls St. 2%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -6.7 279 D -5 308 C- -2 224 -10 304 0 1
Northwestern St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -8.5 308 D -5 313 D+ -3 287 -1 222 0 1
Incarnate Word 1%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -10.4 329 D- -7 334 D -4 306 -22 358 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 4 27 Auburn 92 255 SE Louisiana 59   
Thu, Nov 5 94 McNeese St. 67 107 North Texas 77   
67 Mississippi St. 82 308 Northwestern St. 44   
257 Rice 71 277 East Texas A&M 72   
328 Chicago St. 66 329 Incarnate Word 54   
Fri, Nov 6 279 Nicholls St. 63 153 UAB 70   
191 TX A&M Corpus Christi 67 253 Louisiana 60   
Sat, Nov 7 83 Murray St. 93 308 Northwestern St. 71   
225 Arkansas Little Rock 79 255 SE Louisiana 83   
271 Abilene Christian 83 232 Lamar 81   
301 Prairie View 63 258 UT Rio Grande Valley 68   
261 Houston Christian 74 362 Western Illinois 67   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 329 Incarnate Word 62 189 UTEP 72 85%   
Tue, Nov 10 41 Mississippi 80 255 SE Louisiana 59 96%   
118 Texas St. 71 258 UT Rio Grande Valley 66 71%   
279 Nicholls St. 70 188 Tulane 78 76%   
261 Houston Christian 72 294 South Dakota 73 54%   
Wed, Nov 11 271 Abilene Christian 66 137 Stephen F. Austin 70 66%   
209 UC Davis 75 329 Incarnate Word 65 83%   
346 Fairleigh Dickinson 63 277 East Texas A&M 71 78%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 2 60% 48% 11% 2% 60 22 9 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Stephen F. Austin 3 30% 21% 8% 1% 30 27 15 9 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 15 16 14 11 9 7 6 5 3 3 2
Lamar 6 5% 3% 2% 0% 5 9 12 13 11 11 9 8 8 6 5 4
UT Rio Grande Valley 6 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 8 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 4
SE Louisiana 6 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 7 10 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 4
Houston Christian 7 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 6 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6
East Texas A&M 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 5 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 7
New Orleans 7 1% 1% 1% 0% 1 4 6 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 9
Nicholls St. 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 4 6 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11
Northwestern St. 8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 2 4 5 7 8 9 11 11 13 14 16
Incarnate Word 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 2 3 5 6 8 9 11 12 13 16 16

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 17 - 4 22 - 7 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 12 16 17 17 12 7 2
Stephen F. Austin 15 - 7 18 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 13 13 11 8 5 3 1 0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 10 15 - 15 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 9 12 13 12 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Lamar 11 - 11 14 - 16 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 12 12 10 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
UT Rio Grande Valley 11 - 11 13 - 17 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 11 12 13 11 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
SE Louisiana 10 - 11 13 - 19 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 12 13 13 12 9 7 4 3 1 0 0 0
Houston Christian 10 - 12 14 - 16 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 12 13 11 10 7 5 4 2 1 1 0 0
East Texas A&M 10 - 12 13 - 18 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 11 13 13 11 10 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
New Orleans 9 - 12 12 - 18 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 10 13 13 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0
Nicholls St. 9 - 12 11 - 19 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 11 13 12 12 10 8 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
Northwestern St. 8 - 14 10 - 20 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 12 11 8 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Incarnate Word 8 - 14 9 - 23 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
McNeese St. 44% 43% 1% 14 Likely Out 1 4 18 16 5 56
Stephen F. Austin 22% 22% 0% Negligible 1 4 8 8 1 78
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 2 5 1 92
Lamar 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 95
SE Louisiana 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 96
UT Rio Grande Valley 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 96
Houston Christian 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 2 1 97
New Orleans 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 98
East Texas A&M 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 97
Nicholls St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 98
Northwestern St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99
Incarnate Word 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 99 1
1st Round 86% 0.9 14 85 0
2nd Round 10% 0.1 90 10 0
Sweet Sixteen 2% 0.0 98 2
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 44% 2% 43% 7% 2%
Stephen F. Austin 22% 5% 20% 2%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8% 4% 6%
Lamar 5% 3% 3%
SE Louisiana 4% 2% 3%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4% 3% 3%
Houston Christian 3% 3% 2%
New Orleans 2% 2% 1%
East Texas A&M 3% 2% 2%
Nicholls St. 2% 2% 1%
Northwestern St. 1% 1% 1%
Incarnate Word 1% 1%