Preseason Rankings
Southland
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
McNeese St. 42%   14   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.9 98 C+ +1 127 B +4 75 0 1 0 1
Stephen F. Austin 21%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.2 139 C +0 160 C+ +1 112 0 1 0 1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.3 217 D+ -4 288 C+ +1 138 0 1 0 1
Lamar 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.7 228 D+ -3 256 C- -1 195 0 1 0 1
UT Rio Grande Valley 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.2 260 D+ -4 278 C- -1 215 0 1 0 1
New Orleans 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.5 266 C- -2 235 D -3 296 0 1 0 1
Houston Christian 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.7 269 D+ -4 281 C- -2 230 0 1 0 1
SE Louisiana 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.7 271 D+ -4 283 C- -2 233 0 1 0 1
Nicholls St. 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.0 287 D+ -4 282 D+ -3 283 0 1 0 1
Northwestern St. 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.3 291 D -5 310 D+ -3 268 0 1 0 1
Incarnate Word 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.7 299 D+ -3 266 D -5 333 0 1 0 1
East Texas A&M 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.9 344 D- -7 351 D -4 304 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 2 69% 58% 9% 2% 69 17 7 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Stephen F. Austin 3 19% 12% 6% 1% 19 28 18 12 7 5 4 2 2 1 1 0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 16 15 12 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 2
SE Louisiana 6 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 10 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 6 5 4
New Orleans 7 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 7 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6
Houston Christian 7 3% 2% 1% 0% 3 7 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 7
Lamar 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 6 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 5
Incarnate Word 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 6 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 7
Northwestern St. 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 6 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8
UT Rio Grande Valley 7 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 4 7 9 9 11 10 11 10 10 9 7
Nicholls St. 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 4 6 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11
East Texas A&M 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 10 11 13 16 20

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 17 - 5 22 - 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 13 15 16 13 8 4 1
Stephen F. Austin 14 - 6 17 - 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 6 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 4 2 0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 10 14 - 16 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 8 10 12 12 12 10 8 6 3 2 1 0 0
SE Louisiana 11 - 11 13 - 20 0 0 1 1 2 4 7 9 11 12 12 12 10 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
New Orleans 10 - 11 13 - 17 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 12 13 12 10 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Houston Christian 10 - 12 13 - 17 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 10 12 12 12 10 7 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
Lamar 10 - 9 13 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 13 13 10 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Incarnate Word 10 - 12 11 - 21 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 11 13 13 11 10 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Northwestern St. 9 - 13 11 - 18 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 10 12 12 13 10 9 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0
UT Rio Grande Valley 9 - 10 11 - 15 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 12 14 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Nicholls St. 9 - 12 11 - 19 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 11 12 13 11 9 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
East Texas A&M 8 - 14 9 - 22 0 0 2 4 7 10 13 14 13 12 9 7 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
McNeese St. 42% 41% 1% 14 Likely Out 1 4 15 14 7 58
Stephen F. Austin 21% 21% 0% Negligible 1 5 7 7 1 79
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8% 8% 0% Negligible 0 2 4 2 92
Lamar 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 1 95
UT Rio Grande Valley 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 96
New Orleans 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 96
Houston Christian 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 2 1 96
SE Louisiana 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 95
Nicholls St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 98
Northwestern St. 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 97
Incarnate Word 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 97
East Texas A&M 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 99 1
1st Round 83% 0.8 17 83 0
2nd Round 12% 0.1 88 12 0
Sweet Sixteen 3% 0.0 97 3
Elite Eight 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 42% 4% 40% 8% 2%
Stephen F. Austin 21% 5% 19% 3% 1%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8% 4% 6% 1%
Lamar 5% 2% 3%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4% 2% 3%
New Orleans 4% 3% 3%
Houston Christian 4% 3% 2%
SE Louisiana 5% 4% 3%
Nicholls St. 2% 2% 1%
Northwestern St. 3% 2% 2%
Incarnate Word 3% 2% 2%
East Texas A&M 1% 1%