Summit League
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
St. Thomas 34%   15   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 +0.9 142 C+ +2 119 C- -1 192 +6 93 0 1
South Dakota St. 18%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -2.4 186 C- -1 194 C- -1 202 +21 12 0 1
North Dakota St. 17%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -3.1 199 C +0 162 D+ -3 283 -7 285 0 1
UMKC 8%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -6.0 268 C- -1 188 D -5 333 +4 131 0 1
Oral Roberts 7%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -7.5 291 D+ -4 268 D -4 308 -10 307 0 1
South Dakota 7%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -7.6 294 C- -2 215 D- -6 352 -19 350 0 1
Nebraska Omaha 5%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -8.3 303 D -5 299 D+ -4 296 +3 148 0 1
North Dakota 4%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -8.8 316 D+ -3 258 D- -6 347 +6 107 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 4 199 North Dakota St. 64 70 St. Mary's 105   
190 Northern Kentucky 102 294 South Dakota 94   
Fri, Nov 6 57 Minnesota 76 142 St. Thomas 62   
21 BYU 108 303 Nebraska Omaha 67   
199 North Dakota St. 70 143 San Francisco 79   
268 UMKC 100 208 Southern Illinois 93   
Sat, Nov 7 303 Nebraska Omaha 56 50 Utah St. 90   
219 Cal St. Fullerton 87 294 South Dakota 85   
316 North Dakota 93 252 Winthrop 90   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 192 Green Bay 67 142 St. Thomas 73 74%   
292 Cal St. Bakersfield 74 199 North Dakota St. 75 56%   
Mon, Nov 9 59 Clemson 82 316 North Dakota 60 97%   
236 Jacksonville 74 268 UMKC 70 67%   
Tue, Nov 10 261 Houston Christian 72 294 South Dakota 73 54%   
Wed, Nov 11 186 South Dakota St. 67 120 Valparaiso 69 59%   
291 Oral Roberts 66 103 Tulsa 82 92%   
331 Florida A&M 74 268 UMKC 78 67%   
Thu, Nov 12 98 George Mason 76 268 UMKC 65 86%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
St. Thomas 2 52% 38% 12% 3% 52 21 12 7 4 2 1 1
South Dakota St. 3 24% 15% 7% 2% 24 23 18 12 10 6 4 3
North Dakota St. 3 21% 13% 7% 2% 21 22 18 14 10 7 5 3
UMKC 5 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 12 14 15 15 14 12 10
Oral Roberts 5 7% 3% 2% 1% 7 11 14 15 16 14 13 11
South Dakota 5 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 9 13 14 15 15 15 13
Nebraska Omaha 5 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 7 11 13 15 16 17 17
North Dakota 5 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 10 13 14 17 18 19

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
St. Thomas 10 - 4 19 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 12 16 19 18 13 7 2
South Dakota St. 8 - 6 16 - 11 0 0 0 1 3 6 10 14 16 17 14 10 5 2 0
North Dakota St. 8 - 6 14 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 15 17 16 13 8 4 1 0
UMKC 6 - 8 13 - 15 0 1 3 6 11 14 16 16 14 10 6 3 1 0 0
Oral Roberts 6 - 8 9 - 17 0 1 3 6 12 15 17 16 13 9 5 2 1 0 0
South Dakota 6 - 8 10 - 18 0 1 4 8 13 17 17 15 11 8 4 2 1 0 0
Nebraska Omaha 6 - 8 9 - 17 0 2 5 10 15 17 17 14 10 6 3 1 0 0 0
North Dakota 5 - 9 10 - 18 0 2 6 10 15 18 17 14 9 5 3 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
St. Thomas 34% 34% 0% 15 Negligible 1 5 11 14 4 66
South Dakota St. 18% 18% 0% Negligible 1 4 8 5 82
North Dakota St. 17% 17% 0% Negligible 2 7 7 83
UMKC 8% 8% 0% Negligible 2 5 92
Oral Roberts 7% 7% 0% Negligible 2 5 93
South Dakota 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 5 93
Nebraska Omaha 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 4 95
North Dakota 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 3 96

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 67% 0.7 33 67
2nd Round 5% 0.0 95 5
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Thomas 34% 13% 28% 3% 1%
South Dakota St. 18% 11% 13% 1%
North Dakota St. 17% 13% 11% 1%
UMKC 8% 7% 4%
Oral Roberts 7% 7% 4%
South Dakota 7% 6% 3%
Nebraska Omaha 5% 5% 3%
North Dakota 4% 4% 2%