Preseason Rankings
Summit League
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
St. Thomas 28%   15   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.1 151 C +1 141 C +0 174 0 1 0 1
North Dakota St. 26%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -0.2 157 C +0 154 C +0 168 0 1 0 1
South Dakota St. 12%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.0 234 C- -1 205 D+ -3 267 0 1 0 1
Oral Roberts 11%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.2 261 C- -2 221 D -3 297 0 1 0 1
South Dakota 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.3 279 D+ -3 248 D -4 313 0 1 0 1
Nebraska Omaha 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.3 292 D -4 302 D+ -3 278 0 1 0 1
UMKC 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -8.4 312 D -4 304 D -4 316 0 1 0 1
North Dakota 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -9.1 323 D+ -4 292 D- -5 342 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
St. Thomas 2 40% 27% 10% 3% 40 24 15 9 6 3 2 1
North Dakota St. 2 39% 27% 10% 3% 39 23 15 10 6 4 2 1
South Dakota St. 4 15% 8% 4% 2% 15 17 17 15 13 10 8 5
Oral Roberts 4 12% 6% 4% 2% 12 15 16 16 14 12 10 6
South Dakota 5 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 11 13 16 15 14 13 10
Nebraska Omaha 5 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 9 12 14 15 16 15 13
UMKC 6 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 7 9 12 15 16 18 20
North Dakota 6 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 6 9 12 14 17 19 20

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
St. Thomas 9 - 5 17 - 12 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 10 15 17 17 15 9 5 1
North Dakota St. 9 - 5 16 - 13 0 0 1 1 3 7 11 14 18 17 14 9 4 1
South Dakota St. 7 - 7 13 - 14 0 0 1 3 6 10 14 16 16 14 10 6 3 1 0
Oral Roberts 7 - 7 10 - 16 0 0 2 4 8 12 15 16 15 12 8 4 2 1 0
South Dakota 6 - 8 12 - 16 0 1 3 7 10 15 17 17 13 9 5 3 1 0 0
Nebraska Omaha 6 - 8 9 - 16 0 1 4 8 13 16 17 15 12 8 4 2 1 0 0
UMKC 5 - 9 11 - 17 0 3 7 11 16 17 17 12 9 5 2 1 0 0
North Dakota 5 - 9 9 - 19 1 3 7 11 16 18 16 12 8 5 2 1 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
St. Thomas 28% 28% 0% 15 Negligible 1 4 7 11 5 72
North Dakota St. 26% 26% 0% Negligible 1 3 7 11 5 74
South Dakota St. 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 5 6 88
Oral Roberts 11% 11% 0% Negligible 1 4 6 89
South Dakota 8% 8% 0% Negligible 2 6 92
Nebraska Omaha 7% 7% 0% Negligible 2 5 93
UMKC 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 4 95
North Dakota 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 4 96

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 69% 0.7 31 69 0
2nd Round 6% 0.1 94 6
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Thomas 28% 12% 22% 3% 1%
North Dakota St. 26% 12% 20% 2% 1%
South Dakota St. 12% 9% 8%
Oral Roberts 11% 9% 6%
South Dakota 8% 7% 4%
Nebraska Omaha 7% 6% 3%
UMKC 5% 4% 2%
North Dakota 4% 4% 2%