Sun Belt
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
James Madison 22%   15   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 +0.9 135 C+ +2 113 C- -1 197 -1 211 0 1
Old Dominion 17%   Negligible 3 - 0 0 - 0 -0.4 156 C -1 184 C +0 138 +7 78 0 1
Marshall 11%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -1.9 182 C- -2 207 C +0 162 -6 273 0 1
Troy 10%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -2.6 195 C- -2 217 C -1 172 -4 240 0 1
Appalachian St. 6%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -3.5 211 D+ -3 269 C +0 152 +7 71 0 1
Arkansas St. 7%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -3.6 212 D+ -3 250 C- -1 179 -5 262 0 1
Georgia St. 5%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -3.9 219 C -1 177 D+ -3 285 -14 339 0 1
Southern Miss 5%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -4.8 245 D+ -3 266 C- -1 211 +5 122 0 1
South Alabama 5%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -4.9 248 C- -2 211 D+ -3 277 -5 259 0 1
Louisiana 4%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -5.2 256 D+ -4 283 C- -1 193 -16 349 0 1
Louisiana Tech 3%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -5.8 264 D+ -4 288 C- -1 214 +7 74 0 1
Coastal Carolina 2%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -5.9 267 D+ -4 280 C- -2 235 -10 313 0 1
Georgia Southern 1%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -7.9 296 D -5 292 D+ -3 288 -9 293 0 1
Louisiana Monroe 1%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -9.6 322 D+ -4 287 D- -5 339 -14 340 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 9 182 Marshall 74 45 Ohio St. 84   
211 Appalachian St. 53 25 Auburn 75   
27 LSU 90 264 Louisiana Tech 50   
24 Texas A&M 108 322 Louisiana Monroe 67   
267 Coastal Carolina 65 349 South Carolina Upstate 56   
Tue, Nov 10 50 TCU 100 322 Louisiana Monroe 92   
248 South Alabama 69 86 Central Florida 76   
149 Loyola Marymount 69 195 Troy 74   
187 Fresno St. 95 219 Georgia St. 92   
212 Arkansas St. 65 238 Tennessee Martin 82   
296 Georgia Southern 91 224 Mercer 97   
Wed, Nov 11 254 Delaware 61 135 James Madison 71   
336 Norfolk St. 60 156 Old Dominion 71   
288 Jackson St. 80 245 Southern Miss 84   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 12 149 Loyola Marymount 72 248 South Alabama 68 67%   
Fri, Nov 13 49 North Carolina St. 81 195 Troy 64 94%   
61 Arizona St. 90 322 Louisiana Monroe 67 97%   
296 Georgia Southern 70 86 Central Florida 88 94%   
211 Appalachian St. 58 122 Charlotte 67 80%   
245 Southern Miss 67 116 Texas St. 78 85%   
Sat, Nov 14 44 Grand Canyon 94 322 Louisiana Monroe 69 98%   
256 Louisiana 60 107 UNC Wilmington 73 88%   
112 North Texas 71 248 South Alabama 60 86%   
233 Longwood 66 156 Old Dominion 72 75%   
182 Marshall 78 246 Youngstown St. 79 50%   
264 Louisiana Tech 65 286 Nicholls St. 67 56%   
Sun, Nov 15 267 Coastal Carolina 61 52 Wisconsin 81 96%   
135 James Madison 75 308 Mercyhurst 62 88%   
219 Georgia St. 79 336 Norfolk St. 69 82%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
James Madison 4 31% 20% 8% 3% 31 17 13 10 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1
Old Dominion 4 23% 14% 6% 3% 23 17 13 10 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 1
Marshall 5 14% 8% 4% 2% 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 1
Troy 6 12% 7% 4% 2% 12 13 11 10 9 8 7 7 5 5 5 3 2 2
Arkansas St. 6 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3
Appalachian St. 7 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 3
Southern Miss 7 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4
Georgia St. 7 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 5 3
South Alabama 7 7% 3% 2% 1% 7 7 8 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 4
Louisiana 7 5% 3% 1% 1% 5 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5
Louisiana Tech 8 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 5 5 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 9 9 9 8
Coastal Carolina 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8
Louisiana Monroe 10 1% 0% 0% 1% 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 13 15 15
Georgia Southern 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 8 9 11 12 16 17

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
James Madison 12 - 6 18 - 11 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 8 11 15 14 15 12 7 4 2 0
Old Dominion 11 - 7 18 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 15 13 9 6 3 1 0
Marshall 10 - 8 15 - 13 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 10 13 15 14 12 9 6 3 1 0 0
Troy 10 - 8 14 - 14 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 14 12 8 6 3 1 0 0
Arkansas St. 9 - 9 15 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 12 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Appalachian St. 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 3 6 8 10 12 14 13 12 9 6 3 1 1 0 0
Southern Miss 9 - 9 14 - 16 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 14 11 8 6 3 2 1 0 0
Georgia St. 9 - 9 13 - 16 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 12 14 15 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
South Alabama 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 12 14 14 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
Louisiana 9 - 9 11 - 17 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 13 13 13 11 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Louisiana Tech 8 - 10 13 - 16 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 13 12 11 8 5 3 2 0 0 0
Coastal Carolina 8 - 10 12 - 17 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Louisiana Monroe 7 - 11 8 - 21 0 1 3 6 11 13 15 16 12 10 6 4 2 1 0 0
Georgia Southern 6 - 12 10 - 20 0 1 4 7 11 14 15 15 12 9 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
James Madison 22% 22% 0% 15 Negligible 3 8 9 1 78
Old Dominion 17% 17% 0% Negligible 2 7 7 1 83
Marshall 11% 11% 0% Negligible 1 3 6 1 89
Troy 10% 10% 0% Negligible 1 2 6 1 90
Appalachian St. 6% 6% 0% Negligible 2 4 1 94
Arkansas St. 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 4 2 93
Georgia St. 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 95
Southern Miss 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 95
South Alabama 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 95
Louisiana 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 2 1 96
Louisiana Tech 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 2 1 97
Coastal Carolina 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 98
Georgia Southern 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 99
Louisiana Monroe 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 77% 0.8 23 77 0
2nd Round 6% 0.1 94 6
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
James Madison 22% 6% 19% 2%
Old Dominion 17% 4% 16% 1%
Marshall 11% 5% 8% 1%
Troy 10% 5% 8% 1%
Appalachian St. 6% 3% 5%
Arkansas St. 7% 5% 4%
Georgia St. 5% 4% 3%
Southern Miss 5% 3% 4%
South Alabama 5% 3% 3%
Louisiana 4% 3% 3%
Louisiana Tech 3% 2% 2%
Coastal Carolina 2% 2% 2%
Georgia Southern 1% 1%
Louisiana Monroe 1% 1%