Preseason Rankings
Sun Belt
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
James Madison 18%   15   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.1 154 C+ +1 128 C- -1 200 0 1 0 1
Troy 15%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.1 173 C -1 182 C +0 176 0 1 0 1
Arkansas St. 13%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.2 175 C -1 178 C -1 179 0 1 0 1
Louisiana 10%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.1 212 C- -2 246 C -1 184 0 1 0 1
Georgia St. 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.7 227 C- -1 192 D+ -3 266 0 1 0 1
Old Dominion 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.9 231 C- -2 225 D+ -2 246 0 1 0 1
Southern Miss 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.1 236 D+ -3 253 C- -2 218 0 1 0 1
Marshall 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.3 239 C- -2 231 D+ -2 253 0 1 0 1
Coastal Carolina 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.8 252 D+ -3 249 D+ -2 252 0 1 0 1
Appalachian St. 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.0 256 D+ -4 280 C- -1 208 0 1 0 1
South Alabama 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.2 262 D+ -3 273 C- -2 228 0 1 0 1
Louisiana Tech 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.1 277 D -5 321 C- -1 192 0 1 0 1
Georgia Southern 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -8.5 314 D -4 300 D -4 321 0 1 0 1
Louisiana Monroe 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.8 343 D -5 330 D- -5 348 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
James Madison 4 26% 17% 6% 3% 26 17 13 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1
Troy 5 20% 12% 5% 3% 20 15 12 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 3 2 1 1
Arkansas St. 5 19% 11% 5% 2% 19 14 13 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1
Louisiana 6 12% 7% 3% 2% 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2
Georgia St. 6 10% 6% 3% 2% 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3
Old Dominion 6 10% 5% 3% 2% 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3
Southern Miss 7 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3
Coastal Carolina 7 7% 3% 2% 1% 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4
Appalachian St. 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 5
Marshall 8 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5
South Alabama 8 4% 1% 1% 1% 4 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6
Louisiana Tech 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8
Georgia Southern 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 2 3 4 4 6 6 8 9 10 13 15 18
Louisiana Monroe 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 10 11 14 16 17

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
James Madison 11 - 7 18 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 12 14 14 13 10 6 3 1 0
Troy 11 - 7 16 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 14 13 11 8 5 2 1 0
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 17 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 11 14 14 14 11 8 4 2 1 0
Louisiana 10 - 8 13 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 14 12 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
Georgia St. 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 10 12 13 14 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0
Old Dominion 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 10 13 14 13 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0
Southern Miss 9 - 9 13 - 16 0 0 0 1 2 5 8 10 13 14 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
Coastal Carolina 9 - 9 13 - 16 0 0 1 1 4 6 9 12 14 13 13 11 8 5 2 1 0 0 0
Appalachian St. 9 - 9 12 - 17 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 11 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Marshall 8 - 9 13 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
South Alabama 8 - 9 13 - 15 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 14 15 14 12 9 6 3 1 0 0 0
Louisiana Tech 8 - 10 12 - 17 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 14 13 10 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Georgia Southern 6 - 12 10 - 20 0 1 4 8 12 14 15 14 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Louisiana Monroe 6 - 12 8 - 21 0 1 4 8 12 15 16 14 12 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
James Madison 18% 18% 0% 15 Negligible 2 6 8 1 82
Troy 15% 15% 0% Negligible 2 5 6 1 85
Arkansas St. 13% 13% 0% Negligible 1 4 7 1 87
Louisiana 10% 10% 0% Negligible 1 2 5 2 90
Georgia St. 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 4 2 93
Old Dominion 7% 7% 0% Negligible 2 4 2 93
Southern Miss 7% 7% 0% Negligible 0 1 4 2 93
Marshall 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 95
Coastal Carolina 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 95
Appalachian St. 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 96
South Alabama 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 96
Louisiana Tech 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 2 1 97
Georgia Southern 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99
Louisiana Monroe 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 75% 0.7 25 75 0
2nd Round 7% 0.1 93 7 0
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
James Madison 18% 6% 15% 2%
Troy 15% 5% 12% 1%
Arkansas St. 13% 5% 10% 1%
Louisiana 10% 5% 7% 1%
Georgia St. 7% 4% 5%
Old Dominion 7% 4% 5%
Southern Miss 7% 4% 5%
Marshall 5% 3% 3%
Coastal Carolina 5% 3% 3%
Appalachian St. 4% 3% 3%
South Alabama 4% 3% 3%
Louisiana Tech 3% 2% 2%
Georgia Southern 1% 1%
Louisiana Monroe 1% 1%