West Coast
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Saint Mary's 46%   12   Likely Out 3 - 1 0 - 0 +9.6 67 B +6 58 B +4 75 +7 78 0 1
Santa Clara 40%   Likely Out 4 - 0 0 - 0 +7.9 78 B +5 81 B- +3 82 +14 30 0 1
Pacific 6%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 +1.2 130 C- -2 208 B- +3 89 -1 211 0 1
San Francisco 5%   Negligible 3 - 0 0 - 0 +0.5 138 C- -1 204 C+ +2 109 +6 91 0 1
San Diego 6%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 +0.5 139 C+ +2 108 C- -2 237 +2 158 0 1
Seattle 3%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -0.6 157 D+ -3 246 C+ +2 96 -8 288 0 1
Pepperdine 3%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -0.6 160 C+ +2 128 C- -2 243 -13 333 0 1
Loyola Marymount 3%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -1.5 173 C+ +1 138 D+ -3 258 -17 351 0 1
Portland 1%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -2.9 199 C -1 175 D+ -2 247 -8 289 0 1
Denver 1%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -3.7 217 C- -2 214 C- -2 229 -9 305 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Tue, Nov 10 88 Colorado 83 139 San Diego 75   
203 Montana 58 138 San Francisco 63   
173 Loyola Marymount 69 196 Troy 74   
Wed, Nov 11 110 North Texas 71 78 Santa Clara 76   
232 Long Beach St. 62 130 Pacific 59   
157 Seattle 59 206 Texas San Antonio 86   
160 Pepperdine 77 163 Sam Houston St. 85   
Thu, Nov 12 173 Loyola Marymount 72 225 South Alabama 79   
Fri, Nov 13 67 St. Mary's 84 112 Illinois-Chicago 61   
199 Portland 88 278 East Texas A&M 94   
328 Chicago St. 67 139 San Diego 87   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Sat, Nov 14 57 New Mexico 84 78 Santa Clara 83 50%   
217 Denver 70 113 Wyoming 74 66%   
228 Portland St. 64 138 San Francisco 72 76%   
266 Air Force 70 130 Pacific 80 83%   
Sun, Nov 15 55 Oregon 82 160 Pepperdine 67 91%   
334 Idaho St. 62 157 Seattle 75 89%   
328 Chicago St. 66 173 Loyola Marymount 77 86%   
Mon, Nov 16 228 Portland St. 63 67 St. Mary's 80 93%   
Tue, Nov 17 319 California Baptist 65 157 Seattle 71 72%   
Wed, Nov 18 88 Colorado 81 199 Portland 69 88%   
139 San Diego 77 197 UC Riverside 71 73%   
253 Louisiana 59 138 San Francisco 68 80%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Saint Mary's 2 55% 41% 12% 2% 55 25 10 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Santa Clara 2 40% 27% 11% 2% 40 29 13 8 4 2 1 1 0 0
San Diego 5 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 11 15 15 13 12 10 8 7 4
Pacific 5 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 10 14 15 13 12 11 8 7 5
San Francisco 5 4% 2% 2% 1% 4 9 13 14 14 12 11 9 8 5
Pepperdine 6 4% 2% 2% 1% 4 8 11 12 13 12 12 11 10 8
Loyola Marymount 6 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 7 10 12 12 12 12 12 11 9
Seattle 6 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 6 10 11 13 13 13 12 11 8
Portland 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 3 6 8 10 11 13 15 16 16
Denver 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 3 6 8 9 11 12 14 17 20

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Saint Mary's 12 - 4 22 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 9 16 19 20 15 8 2
Santa Clara 11 - 5 22 - 9 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 14 17 19 16 11 5 1
San Diego 8 - 8 15 - 14 0 0 1 2 5 7 11 15 16 15 12 8 5 2 1 0 0
Pacific 8 - 8 15 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 8 12 14 16 15 12 8 5 2 1 0 0
San Francisco 8 - 8 17 - 14 0 0 1 3 5 9 13 15 16 14 11 7 4 2 0 0 0
Pepperdine 7 - 10 14 - 16 0 0 2 4 7 11 14 15 14 13 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Loyola Marymount 7 - 10 13 - 18 0 0 2 4 8 12 14 16 14 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Seattle 7 - 9 14 - 15 0 1 2 4 8 12 15 16 15 12 8 5 2 1 0 0
Portland 6 - 10 11 - 18 0 1 4 8 12 16 16 15 11 8 5 2 1 0 0 0
Denver 6 - 10 10 - 20 0 2 5 9 13 16 16 14 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Saint Mary's 46% 39% 11% 12 Likely Out 1 1 2 3 5 2 25 7 54
Santa Clara 40% 33% 11% Likely Out 1 1 2 4 2 23 5 60
Pacific 6% 5% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 94
San Francisco 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 0 95
San Diego 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 94
Seattle 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 0 97
Pepperdine 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 2 1 0 97
Loyola Marymount 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 0 97
Portland 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 99
Denver 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.1 86 14 0
1st Round 99% 1.1 1 90 9 0
2nd Round 28% 0.3 72 27 1 0
Sweet Sixteen 9% 0.1 91 9 0
Elite Eight 3% 0.0 97 3 0
Final Four 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Mary's 46% 5% 44% 14% 5% 1%
Santa Clara 40% 5% 38% 12% 4% 1%
Pacific 6% 6% 1%
San Francisco 5% 5% 1%
San Diego 6% 6% 1%
Seattle 3% 3%
Pepperdine 3% 3%
Loyola Marymount 3% 3%
Portland 1% 1%
Denver 1% 1%