Preseason Rankings
West Coast
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Saint Mary's 36%   12   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.8 80 C+ +2 110 B+ +5 54 0 1 0 1
Santa Clara 34%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.6 84 B +5 61 C+ +2 106 0 1 0 1
Seattle 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.4 135 C- -2 224 B- +3 86 0 1 0 1
Loyola Marymount 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.3 136 C +1 138 C +1 141 0 1 0 1
Pacific 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.1 140 C +0 147 C +1 139 0 1 0 1
Pepperdine 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.6 145 C+ +1 124 C- -1 188 0 1 0 1
San Francisco 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.1 152 C -1 179 C+ +1 136 0 1 0 1
San Diego 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -0.3 159 C +0 156 C +0 164 0 1 0 1
Portland 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.1 193 C -1 185 C- -1 212 0 1 0 1
Denver 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.1 257 C +0 167 D- -5 335 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Saint Mary's 2 41% 29% 10% 3% 41 22 14 9 6 4 2 1 1 0
Santa Clara 3 37% 25% 9% 2% 37 23 14 9 6 4 3 2 1 0
Seattle 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 12 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 4
Pacific 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 12 13 13 13 12 10 9 6 4
Pepperdine 5 10% 5% 3% 1% 10 11 13 12 12 11 10 9 7 5
San Francisco 5 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 9 11 13 12 11 12 10 9 6
San Diego 5 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 9 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 6
Loyola Marymount 5 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 9 11 13 13 13 12 11 9 5
Portland 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 3 5 7 9 10 13 16 18 18
Denver 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 5 7 9 11 14 20 27

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Saint Mary's 11 - 5 20 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 11 15 17 16 13 8 4 1
Santa Clara 11 - 5 20 - 11 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 12 15 16 15 12 7 3 1
Seattle 8 - 8 16 - 13 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 14 15 14 12 9 5 3 1 0 0
Pacific 8 - 8 15 - 15 0 0 1 2 5 8 12 15 15 14 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
Pepperdine 8 - 9 16 - 14 0 0 1 3 5 9 11 14 15 14 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
San Francisco 8 - 8 15 - 16 0 0 1 3 6 10 13 15 15 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
San Diego 8 - 8 14 - 15 0 0 1 3 6 10 13 15 15 12 10 6 4 1 1 0 0
Loyola Marymount 7 - 8 16 - 13 0 0 1 3 6 10 14 16 16 13 9 6 3 1 0 0
Portland 6 - 8 11 - 15 0 2 5 9 14 17 16 14 10 7 3 1 1 0 0
Denver 5 - 11 10 - 20 1 3 8 13 16 17 14 11 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Saint Mary's 36% 30% 9% 12 Likely Out 1 1 1 2 4 2 17 6 1 64
Santa Clara 34% 28% 8% Likely Out 1 1 2 3 2 17 6 1 66
Seattle 8% 8% 0% Negligible 3 3 1 92
Loyola Marymount 7% 6% 0% Negligible 2 3 1 0 93
Pacific 8% 8% 0% Negligible 2 3 1 0 92
Pepperdine 7% 7% 0% Negligible 2 3 1 0 93
San Francisco 6% 6% 0% Negligible 2 3 1 1 94
San Diego 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 0 95
Portland 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 98
Denver 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.1 87 13 0 0
1st Round 99% 1.1 1 90 9 0
2nd Round 28% 0.3 72 28 1
Sweet Sixteen 9% 0.1 91 9 0
Elite Eight 3% 0.0 97 3
Final Four 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Mary's 36% 4% 34% 11% 4% 1%
Santa Clara 34% 4% 32% 11% 4% 1%
Seattle 8% 8% 2%
Loyola Marymount 7% 6% 1%
Pacific 8% 8% 1%
Pepperdine 7% 7% 1%
San Francisco 6% 6% 1%
San Diego 5% 5% 1%
Portland 2% 2%
Denver 1% 1%