Preseason Rankings
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2026-27

Last Updated: Oct 19, 2026

View: Probabilistic Seeding

Seed Team Bid Type Opening Round At-Large Status Tournament Chances
Total Auto At-Large Bye
1 Florida Auto Likely In 99% 19% 98% 98%
1 Duke Auto Likely In 99% 27% 99% 98%
1 Illinois Auto Likely In 98% 17% 98% 97%
1 Connecticut Auto Likely In 96% 27% 95% 96%
2 Houston Auto Likely In 96% 16% 96% 94%
2 Kansas At-Large Likely In 96% 15% 95% 94%
2 Arizona At-Large Likely In 96% 15% 95% 94%
2 Michigan St. At-Large Likely In 95% 13% 94% 94%
3 Michigan At-Large Likely In 92% 12% 91% 92%
3 Tennessee At-Large Likely In 91% 12% 90% 90%
3 St. John's At-Large Likely In 93% 21% 91% 91%
3 Louisville At-Large Likely In 93% 16% 91% 91%
4 Alabama At-Large Likely In 90% 10% 89% 92%
4 Texas Tech At-Large Likely In 89% 13% 87% 88%
4 Virginia At-Large Likely In 91% 15% 89% 89%
4 Texas At-Large Likely In 90% 10% 88% 88%
5 Purdue At-Large Likely In 87% 10% 86% 89%
5 Gonzaga Auto Likely In 93% 43% 88% 91%
5 UCLA At-Large Bubble 81% 8% 79% 81%
5 Villanova At-Large Bubble 79% 13% 76% 83%
6 Vanderbilt At-Large Bubble 80% 8% 78% 80%
6 Iowa St. At-Large Likely In 82% 9% 80% 80%
6 Kentucky At-Large Bubble 81% 6% 80% 80%
6 Arkansas At-Large Likely In 82% 6% 81% 80%
7 Nebraska At-Large Bubble 79% 6% 78% 79%
7 Texas A&M At-Large Bubble 76% 6% 75% 78%
7 USC At-Large Bubble 79% 6% 77% 79%
7 Ohio St. At-Large Bubble 75% 6% 73% 77%
8 Wisconsin At-Large Bubble 72% 5% 70% 78%
8 North Carolina At-Large Bubble 75% 7% 73% 78%
8 BYU At-Large Bubble 76% 6% 75% 77%
8 Miami (FL) At-Large Bubble 74% 9% 72% 75%
Seed Team Bid Type Opening Round At-Large Status Tournament Chances
Total Auto At-Large Bye
9 Auburn At-Large Bubble 72% 4% 70% 75%
9 Indiana At-Large Bubble 69% 4% 68% 74%
9 Marquette At-Large Bubble 69% 9% 66% 74%
9 Missouri At-Large Bubble 64% 4% 63% 73%
10 Oklahoma At-Large Bubble 67% 4% 65% 72%
10 Cincinnati At-Large Bubble 66% 4% 64% 71%
10 Maryland At-Large ✓ Bubble 62% 3% 61% 71%
10 LSU At-Large ✓ Bubble 65% 3% 63% 73%
10 Creighton At-Large ✓ Bubble 61% 7% 58% 73%
10 Baylor At-Large ✓ Bubble 64% 5% 62% 71%
11 Iowa At-Large ✓ Bubble 57% 3% 55% 67%
11 Providence At-Large ✓ Bubble 64% 8% 61% 72%
11 West Virginia At-Large ✓ Bubble 57% 4% 55% 69%
11 Georgia At-Large ✓ Bubble 56% 3% 55% 65%
11 Oklahoma St. At-Large ✓ Bubble 54% 3% 53% 66%
11 TCU At-Large ✓ Bubble 53% 4% 51% 66%
11 Virginia Tech At-Large ✓ Bubble 53% 5% 50% 65%
11 North Carolina St. At-Large ✓ Bubble 49% 4% 47% 61%
12 VCU Auto Bubble 48% 26% 30% 75%
12 Grand Canyon Auto Bubble 47% 29% 25% 77%
12 Wichita St. Auto Likely Out 30% 22% 11% 82%
12 Saint Mary's Auto Likely Out 36% 30% 9% 89%
13 Illinois-Chicago Auto Likely Out 22% 20% 2% 93%
13 UC Santa Barbara Auto Likely Out 25% 24% 2% 95%
13 Miami (OH) Auto Likely Out 21% 19% 2% 93%
13 High Point Auto Likely Out 56% 54% 3% 95%
14 Western Kentucky Auto Likely Out 24% 23% 1% 93%
14 UNC Wilmington Auto Likely Out 27% 26% 1% 92%
14 McNeese St. Auto Likely Out 42% 41% 1% 91%
14 Penn Auto Negligible 24% 23% 0% 89%
15 Montana St. Auto Negligible 25% 25% 0% 79%
15 James Madison Auto Negligible 18% 18% 0% 66%
15 Wright St. Auto ✓ Negligible 20% 20% 0% 64%
15 Furman Auto ✓ Negligible 22% 22% 0% 63%
15 Central Arkansas Auto ✓ Negligible 20% 20% 55%
15 St. Thomas Auto ✓ Negligible 28% 28% 0% 57%
16 Merrimack Auto ✓ Negligible 19% 19% 0% 45%
16 Queens Auto ✓ Negligible 24% 24% 35%
16 Tennessee St. Auto ✓ Negligible 36% 36% 0% 28%
16 American Auto ✓ Negligible 25% 25% 0% 26%
16 Bethune-Cookman Auto ✓ Negligible 26% 26% 26%
16 Vermont Auto ✓ Negligible 35% 35% 0% 25%
16 Howard Auto ✓ Negligible 53% 53% 16%
16 LIU Brooklyn Auto ✓ Negligible 25% 25% 5%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team At-Large Status Tournament Chances
At-Large Auto Total Bye
UCLA Bubble - In 79% 8% 81% 81%
Vanderbilt Bubble - In 78% 8% 80% 80%
Villanova Bubble - In 76% 13% 79% 83%
Kentucky Bubble - In 80% 6% 81% 80%
Nebraska Bubble - In 78% 6% 79% 79%
USC Bubble - In 77% 6% 79% 79%
Texas A&M Bubble - In 75% 6% 76% 78%
BYU Bubble - In 75% 6% 76% 77%
North Carolina Bubble - In 73% 7% 75% 78%
Ohio St. Bubble - In 73% 6% 75% 77%
Miami (FL) Bubble - In 72% 9% 74% 75%
Wisconsin Bubble - In 70% 5% 72% 78%
Auburn Bubble - In 70% 4% 72% 75%
Indiana Bubble - In 68% 4% 69% 74%
Marquette Bubble - In 66% 9% 69% 74%
Oklahoma Bubble - In 65% 4% 67% 72%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team At-Large Status Tournament Chances
At-Large Auto Total Bye
Clemson Bubble - Out 49% 4% 51% 62%
Mississippi Bubble - Out 47% 2% 49% 61%
Xavier Bubble - Out 46% 5% 49% 66%
Central Florida Bubble - Out 44% 2% 45% 62%
Oregon Bubble - Out 43% 2% 44% 62%
Minnesota Bubble - Out 39% 2% 40% 58%
SMU Bubble - Out 38% 2% 40% 57%
Utah St. Bubble - Out 38% 16% 48% 68%
Stanford Bubble - Out 38% 2% 39% 57%
Arizona St. Bubble - Out 32% 1% 33% 52%
Syracuse Bubble - Out 31% 2% 33% 55%
Mississippi St. Bubble - Out 30% 1% 31% 58%
Washington Bubble - Out 30% 1% 31% 57%
Florida St. Bubble - Out 29% 2% 30% 52%
Pittsburgh Bubble - Out 28% 2% 30% 52%
DePaul Bubble - Out 27% 3% 29% 53%
Seton Hall Bubble - Out 26% 3% 29% 56%
San Diego St. Bubble - Out 24% 12% 33% 65%
Georgetown Bubble - Out 23% 3% 25% 53%
Saint Louis Bubble - Out 23% 21% 39% 73%
Utah Likely Out 19% 1% 20% 47%
Wake Forest Likely Out 18% 1% 19% 48%
Northwestern Likely Out 18% 0% 19% 53%
Colorado Likely Out 17% 1% 18% 49%
Rutgers Likely Out 17% 1% 18% 48%
Notre Dame Likely Out 16% 1% 17% 46%
Boise St. Likely Out 15% 9% 23% 62%
California Likely Out 15% 1% 16% 44%
Kansas St. Likely Out 15% 1% 15% 45%
Team At-Large Status At-Large Auto Total Bye
Colorado St. Likely Out 14% 8% 21% 61%
South Carolina Likely Out 13% 0% 13% 44%
Butler Likely Out 13% 1% 14% 46%
New Mexico Likely Out 11% 20% 29% 80%
Dayton Likely Out 11% 13% 22% 72%
Nevada Likely Out 10% 16% 25% 77%
Penn St. Likely Out 10% 0% 10% 39%
Santa Clara Likely Out 8% 28% 34% 89%
UNLV Likely Out 6% 15% 21% 82%
Oregon St. Likely Out 6% 6% 12% 65%
Memphis Likely Out 6% 14% 19% 81%
Georgia Tech Likely Out 5% 0% 5% 37%
South Florida Likely Out 5% 11% 15% 81%
George Washington Likely Out 4% 8% 12% 76%
Boston College Likely Out 4% 0% 4% 37%
Tulsa Likely Out 3% 13% 16% 87%
George Mason Likely Out 2% 6% 8% 83%
North Texas Likely Out 2% 8% 10% 87%
Akron Likely Out 2% 18% 19% 93%
Wyoming Likely Out 2% 9% 10% 88%
Temple Likely Out 2% 8% 9% 87%
Murray St. Likely Out 2% 18% 19% 94%
Washington St. Likely Out 2% 2% 4% 68%
UC San Diego Likely Out 1% 23% 24% 95%
Texas St. Likely Out 1% 3% 4% 76%
Florida Atlantic Likely Out 1% 5% 7% 85%
UAB Likely Out 1% 7% 9% 87%
Richmond Likely Out 1% 4% 5% 80%
Davidson Likely Out 1% 3% 4% 78%
Rhode Island Likely Out 1% 4% 5% 83%
Team At-Large Status At-Large Auto Total Bye
Saint Joseph's Likely Out 1% 3% 4% 83%
Fordham Likely Out 1% 3% 4% 80%
Illinois St. Likely Out 1% 14% 15% 93%
Utah Valley Likely Out 1% 18% 18% 94%
UC Irvine Likely Out 1% 16% 16% 95%
Loyola Chicago Likely Out 1% 2% 3% 82%
Kent St. Likely Out 1% 13% 13% 90%
St. Bonaventure Likely Out 1% 3% 4% 88%
Charlotte Likely Out 1% 5% 5% 90%
Belmont Likely Out 1% 10% 11% 92%