Preseason Rankings
Atlantic 10
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
VCU 48%   12   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +10.6 54 B +5 59 B+ +5 38 0 1 0 1
Saint Louis 39%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.3 61 B+ +6 51 B +3 78 0 1 0 1
Dayton 22%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.0 72 B- +3 91 B+ +5 52 0 1 0 1
George Washington 12%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.1 96 B- +3 98 B- +2 95 0 1 0 1
George Mason 8%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.8 99 C+ +2 103 B- +2 94 0 1 0 1
Fordham 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.7 115 C+ +1 132 C+ +2 107 0 1 0 1
Davidson 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.3 120 C+ +2 121 C+ +1 132 0 1 0 1
Richmond 5%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.1 123 C+ +2 118 C +0 145 0 1 0 1
Saint Joseph's 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.9 126 C- -1 206 B- +3 82 0 1 0 1
Rhode Island 5%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.8 129 C +1 144 C+ +1 113 0 1 0 1
Duquesne 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.3 137 C +1 145 C+ +1 131 0 1 0 1
St. Bonaventure 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.2 138 C +0 150 C+ +1 123 0 1 0 1
Loyola Chicago 3%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.4 147 C +0 155 C +0 149 0 1 0 1
La Salle 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -0.9 165 C +0 152 C- -1 198 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
VCU 3 39% 27% 9% 3% 39 21 13 9 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0
Saint Louis 3 33% 22% 8% 3% 33 21 14 9 7 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0
Dayton 4 17% 10% 5% 2% 17 16 14 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1
George Washington 5 11% 6% 4% 2% 11 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 2
George Mason 7 5% 2% 1% 1% 5 7 9 10 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 4 3
Rhode Island 7 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5
Saint Joseph's 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6
Richmond 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5
Duquesne 8 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 7
St. Bonaventure 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7
Fordham 8 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 4 5 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7
Loyola Chicago 9 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10
Davidson 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9
La Salle 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 12

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
VCU 12 - 6 21 - 8 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 13 15 16 15 11 6 2 1
Saint Louis 12 - 6 21 - 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 7 10 13 16 16 13 9 5 2 0
Dayton 11 - 7 21 - 11 0 0 1 2 3 5 9 12 14 15 14 11 7 4 2 0 0
George Washington 10 - 8 19 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 12 8 6 2 1 0 0
George Mason 9 - 8 19 - 11 0 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 15 15 14 12 7 4 2 1 0 0
Rhode Island 8 - 10 16 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Saint Joseph's 8 - 10 16 - 13 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0
Richmond 8 - 10 16 - 15 0 0 1 2 5 9 11 13 14 13 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Duquesne 8 - 10 16 - 14 0 0 1 3 6 10 12 14 14 13 10 7 5 2 1 1 0 0
St. Bonaventure 8 - 10 17 - 14 0 0 2 4 6 10 12 14 14 12 10 7 5 2 1 0 0 0
Fordham 8 - 8 15 - 12 0 0 1 3 6 10 12 14 15 13 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
Loyola Chicago 7 - 11 13 - 16 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Davidson 7 - 8 15 - 12 0 1 2 4 7 11 15 15 15 12 9 5 2 1 0 0
La Salle 7 - 11 12 - 17 0 1 3 6 9 13 15 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 1 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
VCU 48% 26% 30% 12 Bubble - Out 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 7 13 1 52
Saint Louis 39% 21% 23% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 6 13 1 61
Dayton 22% 13% 11% Likely Out 1 1 2 3 4 10 1 78
George Washington 12% 8% 4% Likely Out 1 1 1 6 2 88
George Mason 8% 6% 2% Likely Out 1 1 4 1 92
Fordham 4% 3% 1% Likely Out 0 0 2 1 96
Davidson 4% 3% 1% Likely Out 0 0 2 1 96
Richmond 5% 4% 1% Likely Out 0 0 3 1 95
Saint Joseph's 4% 3% 1% Likely Out 0 2 1 0 96
Rhode Island 5% 4% 1% Likely Out 0 0 2 1 0 95
Duquesne 3% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 97
St. Bonaventure 4% 3% 1% Likely Out 0 0 2 1 0 96
Loyola Chicago 3% 2% 1% Likely Out 0 2 1 0 97
La Salle 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 0 98

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.6 47 43 9 0 0
1st Round 100% 1.4 0 61 35 4 0
2nd Round 46% 0.5 54 40 6 0
Sweet Sixteen 18% 0.2 82 17 1 0
Elite Eight 7% 0.1 93 7 0
Final Four 2% 0.0 98 2 0
Final Game 1% 0.0 99 1
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
VCU 48% 12% 42% 20% 8% 3% 1% 1%
Saint Louis 39% 10% 34% 15% 6% 2% 1%
Dayton 22% 6% 19% 6% 2% 1%
George Washington 12% 3% 10% 3% 1%
George Mason 8% 1% 7% 2% 1%
Fordham 4% 1% 4% 1%
Davidson 4% 1% 3% 1%
Richmond 5% 1% 4% 1%
Saint Joseph's 4% 1% 4% 1%
Rhode Island 5% 1% 4% 1%
Duquesne 3% 3% 1%
St. Bonaventure 4% 3% 1%
Loyola Chicago 3% 1% 3% 1%
La Salle 2% 2%