Preseason Rankings
Big East
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Connecticut 96%   1   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +19.2 5 A- +9 16 A+ +10 3 0 1 0 1
St. John's 93%   3   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +16.8 16 A- +8 24 A +8 10 0 1 0 1
Villanova 79%   5   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.8 30 A- +9 22 B+ +5 43 0 1 0 1
Marquette 69%   9   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.0 34 B+ +6 47 A- +7 23 0 1 0 1
Providence 64%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.0 43 B+ +6 48 B+ +6 35 0 1 0 1
Creighton 61%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.7 45 A- +8 36 B +4 67 0 1 0 1
Xavier 49%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.6 57 B+ +6 50 B- +3 80 0 1 0 1
DePaul 29%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.3 68 B- +3 100 B+ +6 36 0 1 0 1
Georgetown 25%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.3 69 B- +4 77 B +4 60 0 1 0 1
Seton Hall 29%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.5 76 C+ +2 108 B+ +5 42 0 1 0 1
Butler 14%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.9 89 B- +4 83 B- +2 97 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 2 43% 31% 9% 2% 43 22 13 9 5 3 2 1 1 0 0
St. John's 3 30% 20% 8% 2% 30 22 16 11 8 5 4 2 1 1 0
Villanova 4 16% 10% 5% 1% 16 17 16 13 10 9 7 5 4 2 1
Marquette 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 12 13 14 12 11 9 8 6 4 2
Providence 5 8% 5% 2% 1% 8 11 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 5 3
Creighton 5 7% 4% 3% 1% 7 10 11 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 3
Xavier 6 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 9 10 11 12 12 11 9 8 6
DePaul 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 7 8 11 12 13 14 13 12
Georgetown 7 1% 1% 1% 0% 1 3 5 6 9 10 12 12 14 14 13
Seton Hall 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 7 8 10 11 12 14 14 14
Butler 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 4 5 7 10 12 15 19 24

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 14 - 6 23 - 9 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 8 11 13 15 16 13 9 5 2 0
St. John's 13 - 7 22 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 7 10 13 14 15 12 9 5 3 1 0
Villanova 12 - 8 20 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
Marquette 11 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 13 12 10 7 5 3 1 0 0
Providence 10 - 10 18 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 10 12 13 13 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Creighton 10 - 10 17 - 13 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 13 13 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
Xavier 9 - 11 18 - 14 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 10 12 13 12 11 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
DePaul 8 - 12 17 - 15 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
Georgetown 8 - 12 16 - 15 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 13 14 12 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Seton Hall 8 - 12 16 - 15 0 0 2 3 6 9 12 13 13 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Butler 7 - 13 15 - 17 0 1 3 7 10 12 14 14 12 9 6 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Connecticut 96% 27% 95% 1 Likely In 20 21 13 11 9 7 5 4 3 3 2 4
St. John's 93% 21% 91% 3 Likely In 13 14 12 11 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 1 7
Villanova 79% 13% 76% 5 Bubble - In 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 7 9 1 21
Marquette 69% 9% 66% 9 Bubble - In 2 3 4 6 6 6 7 7 6 8 12 1 31
Providence 64% 8% 61% 11 Bubble - In 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 8 11 2 36
Creighton 61% 7% 58% 10 Bubble - In 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 8 11 2 39
Xavier 49% 5% 46% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 7 12 2 51
DePaul 29% 3% 27% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 9 2 71
Georgetown 25% 3% 23% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 9 2 75
Seton Hall 29% 3% 26% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 9 2 71
Butler 14% 1% 13% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 2 5 2 86

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 6.1 0 0 5 22 38 25 7 1 0
1st Round 100% 5.4 0 3 17 35 31 12 2 0
2nd Round 100% 3.6 0 3 15 31 32 16 4 0
Sweet Sixteen 92% 1.9 8 30 37 20 5 1 0
Elite Eight 69% 1.0 31 45 20 4 0 0
Final Four 42% 0.5 58 36 6 0 0
Final Game 23% 0.2 77 22 1
Champion 13% 0.1 87 13

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 96% 4% 94% 79% 50% 29% 17% 9% 5%
St. John's 93% 8% 89% 69% 41% 23% 12% 7% 3%
Villanova 79% 14% 73% 50% 26% 13% 7% 3% 2%
Marquette 69% 18% 60% 37% 18% 8% 4% 2% 1%
Providence 64% 18% 55% 33% 15% 7% 3% 1%
Creighton 61% 16% 53% 32% 14% 6% 3% 1% 1%
Xavier 49% 17% 40% 23% 10% 4% 2% 1%
DePaul 29% 13% 22% 10% 4% 1% 1%
Georgetown 25% 12% 19% 9% 3% 1% 1%
Seton Hall 29% 13% 22% 11% 4% 2% 1%
Butler 14% 7% 9% 4% 1% 1%