Preseason Rankings
Mountain West
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Grand Canyon 47%   12   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.9 44 B +6 57 A- +6 25 0 1 0 1
New Mexico 29%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.3 67 B +4 69 B +4 68 0 1 0 1
Nevada 25%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.9 79 B- +3 97 B +4 65 0 1 0 1
UNLV 21%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.0 88 B- +3 101 B- +3 81 0 1 0 1
Wyoming 10%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.7 114 C+ +2 107 C +1 144 0 1 0 1
Hawaii 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.5 134 C +0 153 C+ +1 111 0 1 0 1
UTEP 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.2 174 C- -2 211 C +0 147 0 1 0 1
UC Davis 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.3 194 C- -2 234 C +0 165 0 1 0 1
San Jose St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.9 208 C -1 176 D+ -2 255 0 1 0 1
Air Force 0%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.8 285 D -5 307 D+ -2 248 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Grand Canyon 2 50% 37% 11% 2% 50 24 13 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
New Mexico 3 29% 19% 8% 2% 29 25 18 12 8 5 2 1 0 0
Nevada 3 22% 14% 6% 2% 22 23 20 14 9 6 4 2 1 0
UNLV 4 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 12 17 18 16 13 8 5 2 1
Wyoming 5 8% 5% 3% 1% 8 12 14 16 15 13 9 6 4 1
Hawaii 5 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 7 10 14 15 15 14 10 7 3
UTEP 6 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 6 9 12 15 16 16 13 7
San Jose St. 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 6 9 13 17 18 18 13
UC Davis 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 3 5 8 12 17 21 20 13
Air Force 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 2 3 5 9 15 25 41

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Grand Canyon 13 - 5 22 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 10 14 17 18 15 9 4 1
New Mexico 12 - 6 21 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 16 16 13 8 4 2 0
Nevada 11 - 7 21 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 13 15 16 14 10 6 3 1 0
UNLV 10 - 6 16 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 9 12 15 16 15 11 7 3 1 0
Wyoming 10 - 8 17 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 13 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Hawaii 8 - 10 15 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 15 12 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
UTEP 7 - 11 12 - 15 0 1 2 5 8 12 14 14 14 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
San Jose St. 6 - 12 12 - 18 0 1 4 8 12 14 15 15 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
UC Davis 6 - 10 13 - 15 0 1 4 8 13 16 17 14 11 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Air Force 4 - 14 10 - 21 2 7 14 17 18 15 11 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Grand Canyon 47% 29% 25% 12 Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 5 7 6 17 2 53
New Mexico 29% 20% 11% Likely Out 1 1 3 4 3 14 2 71
Nevada 25% 16% 10% Likely Out 1 1 2 3 3 12 3 75
UNLV 21% 15% 6% Likely Out 1 1 2 2 2 10 3 79
Wyoming 10% 9% 2% Likely Out 1 1 5 3 1 90
Hawaii 5% 5% 0% Negligible 2 2 1 95
UTEP 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 0 97
UC Davis 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 0 0 98
San Jose St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 99
Air Force 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.4 61 35 4 0
1st Round 100% 1.3 0 72 26 2 0
2nd Round 40% 0.4 60 36 4 0
Sweet Sixteen 14% 0.1 86 13 0
Elite Eight 5% 0.1 95 5 0
Final Four 2% 0.0 98 2 0
Final Game 1% 0.0 99 1
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 47% 11% 42% 17% 6% 2% 1%
New Mexico 29% 6% 26% 10% 3% 1%
Nevada 25% 6% 22% 7% 2% 1%
UNLV 21% 4% 19% 6% 2% 1%
Wyoming 10% 1% 10% 2% 1%
Hawaii 5% 5% 1%
UTEP 3% 3%
UC Davis 2% 2%
San Jose St. 1% 1%
Air Force 0%