Preseason Rankings
Southern
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Furman 22%   15   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.8 142 C +1 136 C +0 157 0 1 0 1
East Tennessee St. 15%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.1 170 C +0 169 C -1 182 0 1 0 1
Western Carolina 15%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.0 188 C +0 165 C- -2 227 0 1 0 1
Samford 11%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.6 201 C +0 149 D+ -3 275 0 1 0 1
Tennessee Tech 10%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.4 219 C -1 171 D+ -3 272 0 1 0 1
Mercer 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.5 245 D+ -3 255 C- -2 234 0 1 0 1
Wofford 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.0 255 C- -2 218 D+ -3 288 0 1 0 1
Chattanooga 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.1 276 C- -2 237 D -4 317 0 1 0 1
UNC Greensboro 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.6 283 D+ -3 265 D -4 303 0 1 0 1
VMI 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -9.7 330 D+ -4 291 D- -6 352 0 1 0 1
The Citadel 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.1 335 D -5 309 D- -5 350 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Furman 3 39% 29% 8% 2% 39 19 14 9 6 5 3 2 1 1 0
Western Carolina 4 22% 15% 6% 2% 22 18 15 12 9 7 6 4 3 2 1
Samford 4 16% 10% 5% 1% 16 15 14 12 11 9 8 6 5 3 2
East Tennessee St. 4 13% 7% 4% 1% 13 15 15 14 12 10 7 6 4 3 1
Tennessee Tech 5 14% 8% 4% 1% 14 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 5 3 2
Wofford 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 10 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 4
UNC Greensboro 6 5% 2% 1% 1% 5 7 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 9 6
Chattanooga 7 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 10 8
Mercer 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 6 8 10 11 13 14 12 12 7
VMI 8 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 2 3 5 6 8 10 13 16 17 18
The Citadel 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 4 6 8 11 16 22 30

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Furman 13 - 7 19 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 10 12 14 14 13 10 6 3 1 0
Western Carolina 12 - 8 14 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 12 13 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
Samford 11 - 9 14 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 10 12 13 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
East Tennessee St. 11 - 7 17 - 12 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 13 15 13 12 9 5 2 1 0
Tennessee Tech 11 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 12 13 10 8 5 3 1 1 0 0
Wofford 10 - 10 13 - 16 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 11 13 13 12 10 8 5 4 2 1 0 0
UNC Greensboro 9 - 11 11 - 18 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 13 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Chattanooga 9 - 11 13 - 16 0 0 1 3 5 7 10 12 13 12 11 9 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Mercer 8 - 9 11 - 15 0 0 1 2 5 8 10 14 14 14 12 9 6 3 1 0 0 0
VMI 7 - 13 10 - 18 0 1 3 6 10 12 14 14 12 10 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
The Citadel 6 - 11 7 - 18 0 2 5 10 14 16 15 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Furman 22% 22% 0% 15 Negligible 1 3 6 9 3 78
East Tennessee St. 15% 15% 0% Negligible 1 4 7 3 85
Western Carolina 15% 15% 0% Negligible 2 4 7 3 85
Samford 11% 11% 0% Negligible 1 2 5 3 89
Tennessee Tech 10% 10% 0% Negligible 2 5 3 90
Mercer 6% 6% 0% Negligible 0 1 3 2 94
Wofford 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 3 3 92
Chattanooga 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 3 96
UNC Greensboro 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 2 3 95
VMI 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 98
The Citadel 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 72% 0.7 28 72 0
2nd Round 7% 0.1 93 7
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Furman 22% 8% 18% 2%
East Tennessee St. 15% 7% 12% 1%
Western Carolina 15% 7% 12% 1%
Samford 11% 7% 8% 1%
Tennessee Tech 10% 7% 7% 1%
Mercer 6% 4% 4%
Wofford 8% 6% 5%
Chattanooga 4% 4% 3%
UNC Greensboro 5% 4% 3%
VMI 2% 2% 1%
The Citadel 1% 1% 1%