Colonial Athletic
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
UNC Wilmington 31%   14   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +4.7 107 B- +3 98 C+ +1 118 +12 32 0 1
College of Charleston 18%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 +2.8 119 B- +4 93 C- -1 181 +15 22 0 1
Hofstra 10%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -0.3 153 C- -2 212 C+ +2 117 -8 286 0 1
Towson 10%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -1.0 167 D+ -3 261 B- +2 101 -2 222 0 1
William & Mary 8%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -1.6 174 C+ +2 124 D+ -3 284 -5 254 0 1
Elon 6%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 -2.2 190 C -1 180 C- -1 212 +6 93 0 1
Monmouth 5%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -3.0 200 C- -3 241 C +0 166 -6 277 0 1
Hampton 3%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -3.9 220 D+ -3 263 C -1 174 -4 248 0 1
Stony Brook 3%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -4.3 231 C- -2 208 D+ -3 252 -9 292 0 1
Northeastern 3%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -4.7 244 C- -1 189 D -4 298 -3 232 0 1
Drexel 2%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -5.0 250 D+ -4 272 C- -1 208 -6 267 0 1
Campbell 1%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -6.3 276 C- -2 226 D -4 309 -9 298 0 1
N.C. A&T 1%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -7.1 285 D+ -4 285 D+ -3 267 -11 320 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 276 Campbell 71 169 Western Michigan 87   
336 Norfolk St. 73 174 William & Mary 104   
Mon, Nov 9 260 LIU Brooklyn 46 167 Towson 66   
Tue, Nov 10 61 Arizona St. 85 153 Hofstra 63   
190 Elon 50 73 George Washington 69   
132 Harvard 70 244 Northeastern 74   
Wed, Nov 11 164 Kent St. 73 107 UNC Wilmington 91   
119 College of Charleston 91 171 Temple 81   
134 Florida Atlantic 95 174 William & Mary 90   
168 Princeton 69 231 Stony Brook 59   
176 American 66 250 Drexel 64   
276 Campbell 53 144 East Tennessee St. 68   
179 East Carolina 72 285 N.C. A&T 67   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 12 200 Monmouth 72 206 Quinnipiac 75 60%   
347 Loyola Maryland 58 167 Towson 72 89%   
Fri, Nov 13 153 Hofstra 70 208 Iona 64 72%   
244 Northeastern 73 159 Yale 74 54%   
236 Chattanooga 70 190 Elon 76 69%   
Sat, Nov 14 256 Louisiana 60 107 UNC Wilmington 73 88%   
220 Hampton 65 294 Navy 64 53%   
250 Drexel 64 317 Maine 63 55%   
276 Campbell 76 349 South Carolina Upstate 67 80%   
Sun, Nov 15 17 Michigan 96 174 William & Mary 74 97%   
119 College of Charleston 84 323 South Carolina St. 69 92%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 3 45% 32% 9% 3% 45 21 12 7 5 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0
College of Charleston 4 26% 17% 6% 3% 26 20 14 11 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0
Hofstra 5 12% 7% 4% 1% 12 14 13 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 1
Towson 5 11% 6% 4% 2% 11 13 13 11 11 9 8 7 5 4 4 2 2
William & Mary 6 8% 4% 2% 1% 8 10 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 5 4 3
Elon 6 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 4
Monmouth 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 4
Hampton 7 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 6
Stony Brook 7 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 5 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 10 8 8 7
Northeastern 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 7
Drexel 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 10
Campbell 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 9 12 13 15 14
N.C. A&T 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 4 5 7 9 10 11 13 15 18

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 13 - 5 23 - 7 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 8 10 15 17 16 13 8 3 1
College of Charleston 12 - 6 18 - 10 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 8 12 14 15 15 11 8 4 1 0
Hofstra 10 - 8 15 - 15 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 10 13 13 14 12 9 6 3 1 0 0
Towson 10 - 8 15 - 14 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 11 14 15 14 11 9 6 3 1 0 0
William & Mary 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Elon 9 - 9 15 - 15 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 14 15 14 12 8 5 3 1 0 0
Monmouth 9 - 9 13 - 19 0 0 1 1 3 5 9 11 14 13 12 12 8 5 3 1 1 0
Hampton 8 - 10 13 - 16 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 13 14 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Stony Brook 8 - 10 13 - 16 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Northeastern 8 - 10 12 - 20 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 15 15 13 10 8 5 2 1 0 0 0
Drexel 7 - 11 13 - 17 0 1 2 4 7 11 13 14 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Campbell 7 - 11 10 - 22 0 1 3 6 10 13 15 15 13 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
N.C. A&T 6 - 12 10 - 18 0 1 4 7 10 15 16 14 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
UNC Wilmington 31% 30% 2% 14 Likely Out 1 6 14 8 2 69
College of Charleston 18% 18% 0% Negligible 1 7 7 2 82
Hofstra 10% 10% 0% Negligible 2 4 4 1 90
Towson 10% 10% 0% Negligible 2 4 3 1 90
William & Mary 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 3 3 0 92
Elon 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 2 2 0 94
Monmouth 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 1 2 1 95
Hampton 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 97
Stony Brook 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 97
Northeastern 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 97
Drexel 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 98
Campbell 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 99
N.C. A&T 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 99 1 0
1st Round 89% 0.9 11 88 1
2nd Round 11% 0.1 89 11 0
Sweet Sixteen 2% 0.0 98 2
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 31% 1% 30% 5% 1%
College of Charleston 18% 1% 17% 2% 1%
Hofstra 10% 2% 9% 1%
Towson 10% 2% 8% 1%
William & Mary 8% 2% 7% 1%
Elon 6% 2% 5%
Monmouth 5% 2% 4%
Hampton 3% 2% 2%
Stony Brook 3% 2% 2%
Northeastern 3% 1% 2%
Drexel 2% 1% 2%
Campbell 1% 1% 1%
N.C. A&T 1% 1% 1%