Conference USA
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Western Kentucky 24%   14   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 +2.7 121 C+ +1 129 C+ +1 124 -7 280 0 1
Liberty 14%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 +0.9 137 C +1 152 C +0 140 -4 254 0 1
Kennesaw St. 12%   Negligible 2 - 0 0 - 0 -0.1 149 C- -2 225 C+ +2 106 +7 79 0 1
New Mexico St. 12%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -0.4 158 C +0 168 C +0 156 +9 51 0 1
Sam Houston St. 9%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -1.6 174 C- -1 192 C +0 175 +7 76 0 1
Middle Tennessee St. 8%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -1.9 180 C- -2 218 C +0 154 +7 67 0 1
Florida International 7%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -1.9 182 C- -1 191 C- -1 186 -4 245 0 1
Jacksonville St. 5%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.1 203 C- -2 219 C- -1 199 -15 345 0 1
Delaware 4%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -4.1 228 C- -2 214 D+ -2 248 +2 167 0 1
Missouri St. 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.7 242 D+ -4 269 C- -1 197 0 202 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sat, Nov 7 9 Gonzaga 109 158 New Mexico St. 68   
Sun, Nov 8 198 Tennessee Tech 97 121 Western Kentucky 94   
Tue, Nov 10 149 Kennesaw St. 88 254 Winthrop 79   
280 Evansville 68 180 Middle Tennessee 73   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 11 7 Houston 81 203 Jacksonville St. 55 98%   
145 Pepperdine 76 174 Sam Houston St. 77 54%   
228 Delaware 67 148 James Madison 69 55%   
Thu, Nov 12 158 New Mexico St. 67 187 UTEP 69 55%   
Fri, Nov 13 3 Illinois 98 174 Sam Houston St. 72 98%   
197 Florida Gulf Coast 78 182 Florida International 75 58%   
180 Middle Tennessee 72 235 Southeast Missouri St. 66 70%   
137 Liberty 74 353 NC Central 57 93%   
Sat, Nov 14 203 Jacksonville St. 71 138 UAB 72 53%   
Sun, Nov 15 158 New Mexico St. 65 64 San Diego St. 78 89%   
212 Colgate 66 228 Delaware 69 59%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Western Kentucky 3 37% 26% 8% 3% 37 20 13 9 7 5 4 3 2 1
Liberty 4 19% 12% 5% 2% 19 17 14 12 10 9 7 5 4 3
Kennesaw St. 4 17% 11% 5% 2% 17 16 14 12 11 9 8 6 5 3
New Mexico St. 4 15% 9% 4% 2% 15 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 5 4
Sam Houston St. 5 11% 6% 3% 2% 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 6
Middle Tennessee St. 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7
Florida International 6 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 9 10 10 12 11 11 11 10 9
Jacksonville St. 6 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 7 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12
Delaware 7 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 13 15 17
Missouri St. 7 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 5 6 8 9 10 12 14 16 18

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Western Kentucky 12 - 6 17 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 13 14 14 11 8 4 2 0
Liberty 10 - 8 16 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 10 12 14 14 12 10 6 4 2 0 0
Kennesaw St. 10 - 8 16 - 11 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 14 12 8 6 3 1 0 0
New Mexico St. 10 - 8 14 - 14 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 11 13 14 13 10 8 5 3 1 0 0
Sam Houston St. 9 - 9 12 - 17 0 0 1 1 3 6 8 11 12 13 13 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Middle Tennessee St. 9 - 9 13 - 14 0 0 1 2 3 7 9 12 13 14 12 10 7 5 3 1 0 0 0
Florida International 8 - 10 14 - 15 0 0 1 2 5 7 10 13 14 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Jacksonville St. 8 - 10 13 - 17 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Delaware 7 - 11 12 - 17 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Missouri St. 7 - 11 11 - 16 0 1 2 5 9 12 14 14 13 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Western Kentucky 24% 24% 0% 14 Negligible 2 10 8 3 76
Liberty 14% 14% 0% Negligible 1 4 6 3 1 86
Kennesaw St. 12% 12% 0% Negligible 3 5 3 88
New Mexico St. 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 3 4 3 1 88
Sam Houston St. 9% 9% 0% Negligible 2 3 3 1 91
Middle Tennessee St. 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 3 3 1 92
Florida International 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 3 3 1 93
Jacksonville St. 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 2 2 1 95
Delaware 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 1 96
Missouri St. 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 1 96

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 90% 0.9 10 89 0
2nd Round 10% 0.1 90 10 0
Sweet Sixteen 2% 0.0 98 2
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Western Kentucky 24% 2% 24% 4% 1%
Liberty 14% 2% 13% 1%
Kennesaw St. 12% 2% 11% 1%
New Mexico St. 12% 2% 11% 1%
Sam Houston St. 9% 3% 8% 1%
Middle Tennessee St. 8% 2% 7% 1%
Florida International 7% 2% 6% 1%
Jacksonville St. 5% 2% 4%
Delaware 4% 2% 3%
Missouri St. 4% 2% 3%