Preseason Rankings
Conference USA
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Western Kentucky 23%   14   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.8 115 C+ +1 126 C+ +1 110 0 1 0 1
Liberty 15%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.7 131 C+ +2 117 C +0 156 0 1 0 1
New Mexico St. 13%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.7 143 C +0 164 C+ +1 125 0 1 0 1
Kennesaw St. 12%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.2 149 C -1 171 C+ +1 133 0 1 0 1
Middle Tennessee St. 11%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -0.6 161 C -1 173 C +0 157 0 1 0 1
Florida International 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.3 173 C -1 183 C -1 173 0 1 0 1
Sam Houston St. 9%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.6 181 C -1 186 C- -1 185 0 1 0 1
Jacksonville St. 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.9 205 C- -2 213 C- -1 200 0 1 0 1
Missouri St. 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.7 244 D+ -3 271 C- -1 208 0 1 0 1
Delaware 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.5 263 C- -2 222 D -4 295 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 64 High Point 76 131 Liberty 68 76%   
Mon, Nov 2 326 Morehead St. 64 115 Western Kentucky 80 92%   
Tue, Nov 3 19 Alabama 92 181 Sam Houston St. 71 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Western Kentucky 3 34% 24% 8% 3% 34 20 13 10 8 5 4 3 2 1
Liberty 4 20% 12% 6% 2% 20 19 15 12 9 8 6 4 4 2
New Mexico St. 4 17% 11% 4% 2% 17 16 14 13 11 8 7 6 4 3
Kennesaw St. 4 17% 11% 4% 2% 17 14 13 13 11 10 9 7 5 3
Middle Tennessee St. 5 12% 7% 4% 1% 12 13 11 12 10 12 10 8 7 4
Sam Houston St. 5 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 11 10 12 12 12 11 9 9 5
Florida International 6 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 9 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 7
Jacksonville St. 6 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 6 8 10 10 13 12 12 12 11
Missouri St. 7 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 6 6 7 11 12 15 16 19
Delaware 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 4 6 7 10 13 13 19 23

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Western Kentucky 11 - 7 18 - 11 0 0 0 1 3 4 6 9 11 14 15 13 10 9 3 2 0
Liberty 10 - 8 17 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 11 13 14 14 11 7 3 2 0 0
New Mexico St. 10 - 8 14 - 14 0 0 1 1 4 5 8 9 12 14 13 12 9 6 4 1 0 0
Kennesaw St. 10 - 8 15 - 12 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 12 13 13 11 9 5 3 2 0
Middle Tennessee St. 9 - 9 13 - 14 0 0 1 2 5 7 10 13 13 13 11 10 6 4 2 1 0 0
Sam Houston St. 9 - 9 12 - 17 0 0 1 2 3 5 9 12 12 14 13 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
Florida International 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 13 14 11 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Jacksonville St. 8 - 10 13 - 17 0 1 1 4 5 9 12 13 13 14 11 8 5 3 2 0 0
Missouri St. 7 - 11 10 - 17 0 1 3 6 10 12 14 15 11 10 6 5 3 2 1 0 0
Delaware 6 - 12 11 - 18 0 2 4 7 10 14 15 14 11 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Western Kentucky 23% 22% 1% 14 Likely Out 4 10 6 2 77
Liberty 15% 15% 0% Negligible 1 5 5 3 85
New Mexico St. 13% 13% 0% Negligible 2 5 4 2 1 87
Kennesaw St. 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 3 4 3 88
Middle Tennessee St. 11% 10% 0% Negligible 1 4 3 3 0 89
Florida International 7% 7% 0% Negligible 2 2 2 1 93
Sam Houston St. 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 2 1 91
Jacksonville St. 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 1 2 1 95
Missouri St. 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 1 2 1 96
Delaware 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 1 98

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 99 1
1st Round 91% 0.9 9 90 1
2nd Round 14% 0.1 86 14 0
Sweet Sixteen 3% 0.0 97 3
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Western Kentucky 23% 2% 22% 4% 1%
Liberty 15% 2% 14% 2%
New Mexico St. 13% 2% 12% 2%
Kennesaw St. 12% 2% 11% 1%
Middle Tennessee St. 11% 2% 10% 1%
Florida International 7% 2% 6% 1%
Sam Houston St. 9% 2% 8% 1%
Jacksonville St. 5% 2% 5% 1%
Missouri St. 4% 2% 3%
Delaware 2% 1% 1%