Ohio Valley
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
Switch to Preseason Page


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Tennessee St. 28%   16   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.3 210 D+ -3 257 C +0 158 -5 262 0 1
Southeast Missouri St. 20%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -4.3 235 D+ -4 280 C +0 164 +2 164 0 1
Tennessee Martin 21%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -4.5 238 D+ -4 273 C- -1 188 -5 261 0 1
SIU Edwardsville 14%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -6.3 274 D -5 296 C- -2 225 -9 300 0 1
Lindenwood 7%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -9.0 312 D- -6 329 D+ -3 255 +2 163 0 1
Southern Indiana 5%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -9.8 327 D- -7 338 D+ -3 269 -14 342 0 1
Morehead St. 3%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -11.0 336 D -5 300 D- -6 355 -4 252 0 1
Eastern Illinois 1%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -13.2 356 F+ -8 358 D -5 332 +1 187 0 1
Western Illinois 1%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -15.4 362 F+ -10 363 D- -6 346 -17 352 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sat, Nov 7 13 Louisville 107 336 Morehead St. 57   
193 Lipscomb 78 274 SIU Edwardsville 77   
292 IU Indianapolis 75 238 Tennessee Martin 74   
280 Evansville 78 327 Southern Indiana 76   
239 Houston Christian 74 362 Western Illinois 67   
Sun, Nov 8 92 South Carolina 78 235 Southeast Missouri St. 68   
Mon, Nov 9 28 Missouri 96 274 SIU Edwardsville 58   
356 Eastern Illinois 70 72 Notre Dame 94   
Tue, Nov 10 216 Arkansas St. 65 238 Tennessee Martin 82   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 11 312 Lindenwood 59 21 Nebraska 87 99%   
292 IU Indianapolis 81 327 Southern Indiana 76 69%   
Thu, Nov 12 273 Cal St. Bakersfield 78 362 Western Illinois 72 72%   
Fri, Nov 13 1 Duke 87 274 SIU Edwardsville 54 99%   
17 Tennessee 83 210 Tennessee St. 60 97%   
180 Middle Tennessee 72 235 Southeast Missouri St. 66 70%   
312 Lindenwood 72 300 Nebraska Omaha 76 64%   
Sat, Nov 14 292 IU Indianapolis 79 336 Morehead St. 78 51%   
Sun, Nov 15 327 Southern Indiana 65 167 Western Michigan 70 71%   
356 Eastern Illinois 68 256 Purdue Fort Wayne 73 68%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Tennessee St. 3 39% 27% 10% 3% 39 22 15 10 6 4 2 1 0
Tennessee Martin 3 27% 17% 8% 2% 27 22 17 13 9 5 4 2 1
Southeast Missouri St. 3 27% 18% 7% 2% 27 21 17 13 9 6 4 2 1
SIU Edwardsville 4 16% 9% 5% 2% 16 17 17 15 12 9 7 4 2
Lindenwood 5 7% 3% 2% 1% 7 10 12 14 14 14 12 10 7
Southern Indiana 5 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 8 11 13 15 15 13 11 8
Morehead St. 6 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 8 11 13 15 16 15 12
Eastern Illinois 7 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 3 5 8 11 14 17 20 21
Western Illinois 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 6 9 13 18 22 26

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Tennessee St. 11 - 5 14 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 12 14 16 16 13 7 3 1
Tennessee Martin 10 - 6 14 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 15 16 13 9 5 2 0
Southeast Missouri St. 10 - 6 14 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 11 14 16 15 13 8 5 2 0
SIU Edwardsville 9 - 7 13 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 14 15 15 12 8 5 2 1 0
Lindenwood 8 - 8 11 - 16 0 0 1 4 6 10 13 15 15 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Southern Indiana 7 - 9 10 - 17 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 16 15 12 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Morehead St. 7 - 9 9 - 19 0 1 3 6 11 14 16 15 13 10 6 3 2 1 0 0
Eastern Illinois 6 - 10 8 - 20 0 2 6 10 14 17 17 13 10 6 3 1 1 0 0
Western Illinois 5 - 11 7 - 20 1 3 6 12 17 18 17 12 8 4 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Tennessee St. 28% 28% 0% 16 Negligible 2 11 15 72
Southeast Missouri St. 20% 20% 0% Negligible 1 6 13 80
Tennessee Martin 21% 21% 0% Negligible 1 5 15 79
SIU Edwardsville 14% 14% 0% Negligible 2 11 86
Lindenwood 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 6 93
Southern Indiana 5% 5% 0% Negligible 5 95
Morehead St. 3% 3% 0% Negligible 3 97
Eastern Illinois 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99
Western Illinois 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100
1st Round 55% 0.6 45 55
2nd Round 2% 0.0 98 2
Sweet Sixteen 0% 0.0 100 0
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee St. 28% 23% 17% 1%
Southeast Missouri St. 20% 18% 11%
Tennessee Martin 21% 19% 12%
SIU Edwardsville 14% 13% 7%
Lindenwood 7% 7% 3%
Southern Indiana 5% 5% 3%
Morehead St. 3% 3% 2%
Eastern Illinois 1% 1% 1%
Western Illinois 1% 1% 1%