Preseason Rankings
Ohio Valley
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Tennessee St. 38%   16   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.4 178 C- -1 199 C +0 162 0 1 0 1
Southeast Missouri St. 16%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.7 268 D -5 312 C- -1 188 0 1 0 1
SIU Edwardsville 14%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.3 276 D -5 320 C- -1 195 0 1 0 1
Tennessee Martin 10%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -8.0 301 D- -7 341 C- -1 209 0 1 0 1
Lindenwood 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -8.2 306 D -6 334 D+ -2 252 0 1 0 1
Morehead St. 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -9.9 326 D+ -4 291 D- -6 350 0 1 0 1
Southern Indiana 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -9.9 327 D- -6 337 D -4 303 0 1 0 1
Eastern Illinois 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -12.7 356 F+ -8 359 D -5 328 0 1 0 1
Western Illinois 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -15.5 363 F+ -9 363 D- -6 355 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 306 Lindenwood 63 47 TCU 86 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 99 Murray St. 84 178 Tennessee St. 77 73%   
Mon, Nov 2 356 Eastern Illinois 53 32 Indiana 82 99%   
Mon, Nov 2 326 Morehead St. 64 115 Western Kentucky 80 92%   
Mon, Nov 2 193 Lipscomb 74 268 Southeast Missouri St. 73 52%   
Mon, Nov 2 126 Belmont 80 327 Southern Indiana 65 91%   
Mon, Nov 2 157 Tulane 71 301 Tennessee Martin 61 84%   
Mon, Nov 2 145 Valparaiso 76 363 Western Illinois 56 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Tennessee St. 2 54% 41% 11% 2% 54 20 11 7 4 2 2 1 0
Southeast Missouri St. 4 19% 11% 6% 2% 19 19 16 14 11 7 6 4 2
SIU Edwardsville 4 17% 10% 5% 2% 17 18 17 14 12 9 6 5 2
Tennessee Martin 4 11% 6% 3% 2% 11 14 15 14 12 12 9 7 5
Lindenwood 5 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 14 14 14 12 12 11 9 6
Morehead St. 5 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 9 12 12 13 14 13 12 9
Southern Indiana 5 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 9 11 13 13 12 13 13 10
Eastern Illinois 6 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 6 7 11 12 14 17 16 16
Western Illinois 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 4 6 9 13 16 21 27

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Tennessee St. 11 - 5 15 - 9 0 0 0 1 2 2 6 8 13 16 17 16 11 6 2
Southeast Missouri St. 9 - 7 13 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 15 15 14 13 10 6 3 1 0
SIU Edwardsville 9 - 7 13 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 15 15 15 11 9 4 3 1 0
Tennessee Martin 8 - 8 11 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 8 11 13 15 14 11 9 6 3 1 0 0
Lindenwood 8 - 8 11 - 16 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 13 14 14 12 9 4 2 1 0 0
Morehead St. 7 - 9 11 - 17 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 14 15 13 9 6 3 1 0 0 0
Southern Indiana 7 - 9 10 - 17 0 0 2 5 8 12 14 14 14 12 9 5 2 1 0 0
Eastern Illinois 6 - 10 9 - 19 0 1 4 7 12 14 17 14 13 9 5 3 1 0 0
Western Illinois 5 - 11 7 - 20 0 2 7 11 17 17 16 13 9 5 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Tennessee St. 38% 38% 0% 16 Negligible 1 5 16 15 62
Southeast Missouri St. 16% 16% 0% Negligible 3 12 84
SIU Edwardsville 14% 14% 0% Negligible 3 11 86
Tennessee Martin 10% 10% 0% Negligible 1 8 90
Lindenwood 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 8 92
Morehead St. 6% 6% 0% Negligible 5 94
Southern Indiana 5% 5% 0% Negligible 5 95
Eastern Illinois 3% 3% 0% Negligible 3 97
Western Illinois 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100
1st Round 57% 0.6 43 57
2nd Round 3% 0.0 97 3
Sweet Sixteen 0% 0.0 100 0
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee St. 38% 27% 26% 2%
Southeast Missouri St. 16% 15% 8%
SIU Edwardsville 14% 13% 7%
Tennessee Martin 10% 10% 4%
Lindenwood 8% 8% 4%
Morehead St. 6% 6% 3%
Southern Indiana 5% 5% 3%
Eastern Illinois 3% 3% 2%
Western Illinois 1% 1% 1%