Southern
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Furman 27%   15   Negligible 3 - 0 0 - 0 +2.5 122 C+ +2 113 C +0 147 +9 57 0 1
East Tennessee St. 17%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 +0.1 143 C +0 158 C +0 161 +1 184 0 1
Western Carolina 18%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -0.3 154 C+ +1 135 C- -2 218 +5 108 0 1
Chattanooga 8%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -2.9 198 C+ +1 144 D -4 304 +4 140 0 1
Tennessee Tech 8%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -3.2 207 C +0 156 D+ -4 293 +5 111 0 1
Mercer 7%   Negligible 1 - 3 0 - 0 -3.8 219 C- -1 191 D+ -3 263 0 190 0 1
Samford 7%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -4.0 227 C +0 171 D+ -4 296 -7 285 0 1
Wofford 3%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -6.8 282 C- -3 241 D -4 309 +3 152 0 1
UNC Greensboro 3%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -6.8 283 C- -2 238 D -4 318 -11 319 0 1
VMI 2%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -8.5 304 D -6 322 D+ -3 259 -8 292 0 1
The Citadel 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -11.0 338 D -6 318 D- -5 342 -10 311 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Tue, Nov 10 297 Georgia Southern 91 219 Mercer 97   
Wed, Nov 11 267 Campbell 53 143 East Tennessee St. 68   
122 Furman 80 360 Holy Cross 67   
349 NC Central 51 304 VMI 65   
Thu, Nov 12 219 Mercer 61 42 West Virginia 75   
35 Indiana 90 207 Tennessee Tech 66   
Fri, Nov 13 227 Samford 66 87 Wright St. 90   
198 Chattanooga 77 208 Elon 70   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Sat, Nov 14 136 Belmont 75 122 Furman 74 54%   
193 Lipscomb 75 154 Western Carolina 80 69%   
194 Queens 89 282 Wofford 82 76%   
239 Cornell 82 283 UNC Greensboro 76 69%   
309 North Florida 77 338 The Citadel 72 69%   
Mon, Nov 16 74 Clemson 79 338 The Citadel 57 97%   
Tue, Nov 17 99 Butler 83 154 Western Carolina 74 80%   
143 East Tennessee St. 69 186 Marshall 70 54%   
Wed, Nov 18 122 Furman 77 260 Radford 72 69%   
198 Chattanooga 81 252 Winthrop 82 53%   
219 Mercer 71 248 Presbyterian 73 57%   
207 Tennessee Tech 82 296 UNC Asheville 80 56%   
231 Longwood 76 304 VMI 68 76%   
316 Charleston Southern 80 282 Wofford 79 52%   
227 Samford 74 348 South Carolina Upstate 69 70%   
350 Gardner-Webb 73 283 UNC Greensboro 75 61%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Furman 2 44% 33% 9% 2% 44 21 13 9 5 4 2 1 1 0 0
Western Carolina 3 24% 16% 6% 2% 24 20 15 12 9 7 5 4 2 1 0
East Tennessee St. 4 21% 14% 6% 2% 21 20 16 13 10 7 5 4 2 1 1
Tennessee Tech 5 8% 5% 3% 1% 8 11 12 13 13 12 9 8 6 4 2
Chattanooga 5 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 3
Mercer 5 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 10 11 13 12 11 11 10 8 5 3
Samford 6 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 9 11 12 12 12 11 9 8 7 4
UNC Greensboro 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 6 8 9 11 12 13 13 12 9
Wofford 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 7 8 11 12 13 14 13 11
VMI 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 7 8 11 13 16 18 18
The Citadel 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 3 4 6 8 11 16 21 29

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Furman 14 - 6 21 - 8 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 13 14 15 13 9 6 2 0
Western Carolina 13 - 7 15 - 12 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 13 13 10 8 4 2 1 0
East Tennessee St. 12 - 8 19 - 12 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 7 9 12 13 14 13 10 7 4 2 0 0
Tennessee Tech 11 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 13 14 12 10 7 5 3 1 0 0 0
Chattanooga 10 - 10 16 - 13 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 10 12 13 13 11 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Mercer 10 - 10 13 - 17 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 12 13 13 11 8 6 3 2 1 0 0
Samford 10 - 10 12 - 16 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 11 13 13 13 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
UNC Greensboro 8 - 12 10 - 18 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Wofford 8 - 12 11 - 18 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
VMI 7 - 13 10 - 18 0 1 2 4 8 11 14 15 13 11 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0
The Citadel 6 - 14 8 - 21 0 1 4 8 12 15 15 14 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Furman 27% 27% 0% 15 Negligible 1 7 11 8 1 73
East Tennessee St. 17% 17% 0% Negligible 2 5 8 2 83
Western Carolina 18% 18% 0% Negligible 3 6 7 1 82
Chattanooga 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 4 2 92
Tennessee Tech 8% 8% 0% Negligible 2 4 2 92
Mercer 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 4 2 93
Samford 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 93
Wofford 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 2 97
UNC Greensboro 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 97
VMI 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 98
The Citadel 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 78% 0.8 22 78 0
2nd Round 6% 0.1 94 6
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Furman 27% 5% 25% 3% 1%
East Tennessee St. 17% 6% 14% 1%
Western Carolina 18% 5% 16% 2%
Chattanooga 8% 5% 5%
Tennessee Tech 8% 5% 6%
Mercer 7% 5% 4%
Samford 7% 5% 4%
Wofford 3% 3% 1%
UNC Greensboro 3% 3% 2%
VMI 2% 1% 1%
The Citadel 1% 1%