Preseason Rankings
Southern
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Furman 22%   15   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.6 144 C +1 139 C +0 158 0 1 0 1
East Tennessee St. 14%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.2 170 C +0 170 C- -1 184 0 1 0 1
Western Carolina 15%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.9 189 C +0 162 C- -2 225 0 1 0 1
Samford 12%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.8 202 C +0 150 D+ -3 273 0 1 0 1
Tennessee Tech 11%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.5 218 C -1 172 D+ -3 272 0 1 0 1
Mercer 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.2 235 C- -2 243 C- -2 232 0 1 0 1
Wofford 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.5 264 C- -2 224 D -4 294 0 1 0 1
Chattanooga 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.3 275 C- -2 238 D -4 314 0 1 0 1
UNC Greensboro 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.9 284 D+ -3 267 D -4 302 0 1 0 1
The Citadel 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.1 330 D -5 310 D- -5 346 0 1 0 1
VMI 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.2 332 D -4 295 D- -6 352 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 275 Chattanooga 61 11 Louisville 88 99%   
Mon, Nov 2 38 North Carolina 82 189 Western Carolina 64 94%   
Mon, Nov 2 63 Arizona St. 78 170 East Tennessee St. 65 89%   
Mon, Nov 2 71 Mississippi St. 82 218 Tennessee Tech 67 91%   
Mon, Nov 2 201 Bethune-Cookman 69 144 Furman 72 63%   
Mon, Nov 2 148 Loyola Chicago 73 330 The Citadel 60 89%   
Tue, Nov 3 17 Tennessee 84 264 Wofford 59 98%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Furman 3 33% 24% 7% 2% 33 20 14 11 7 5 4 3 2 1 0
East Tennessee St. 4 21% 15% 5% 2% 21 18 16 11 10 8 6 5 3 1 1
Western Carolina 4 21% 14% 5% 2% 21 17 14 12 10 9 6 5 3 2 1
Samford 5 16% 9% 5% 2% 16 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 5 4 3
Tennessee Tech 5 12% 7% 4% 1% 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 3
Mercer 5 8% 5% 3% 1% 8 10 12 11 12 11 10 8 7 6 4
Wofford 6 5% 4% 1% 1% 5 9 9 10 11 12 11 12 9 7 5
UNC Greensboro 7 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 5 6 8 10 11 11 12 12 12 8
Chattanooga 7 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 6 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 11 9
The Citadel 8 1% 0% 1% 0% 1 2 3 4 7 8 8 13 15 19 20
VMI 8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 2 2 4 6 6 9 11 16 20 24

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Furman 13 - 7 19 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 10 11 15 12 12 10 6 3 1 0
East Tennessee St. 12 - 8 18 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 10 12 14 12 11 10 6 3 2 0 0
Western Carolina 12 - 8 14 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 13 13 12 11 8 6 3 2 1 0
Samford 11 - 9 14 - 14 0 0 1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 11 12 11 9 7 4 2 1 0 0
Tennessee Tech 11 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 5 6 8 10 13 12 12 11 7 5 3 2 1 0 0
Mercer 10 - 10 13 - 17 0 0 1 2 3 6 7 10 11 14 12 12 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Wofford 10 - 10 13 - 16 0 0 1 3 3 7 9 12 14 12 11 10 7 5 3 1 0 0 0
UNC Greensboro 9 - 11 11 - 18 0 0 0 2 4 7 10 12 13 14 12 10 7 4 3 1 1 0 0
Chattanooga 9 - 11 13 - 16 0 0 1 2 4 7 8 13 13 13 10 9 8 6 3 1 1 0 0
The Citadel 7 - 13 9 - 20 0 1 2 5 9 12 14 14 12 10 9 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
VMI 7 - 13 9 - 19 0 1 3 6 9 13 15 14 14 9 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Furman 22% 22% 0% 15 Negligible 4 7 9 2 78
East Tennessee St. 14% 14% 0% Negligible 1 3 7 3 86
Western Carolina 15% 15% 0% Negligible 1 4 7 3 85
Samford 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 3 6 3 88
Tennessee Tech 11% 11% 0% Negligible 1 2 5 3 89
Mercer 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 4 3 92
Wofford 7% 7% 0% Negligible 0 3 4 93
Chattanooga 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 3 96
UNC Greensboro 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 3 96
The Citadel 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99
VMI 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 98

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 72% 0.7 28 72 0
2nd Round 6% 0.1 94 6
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Furman 22% 7% 19% 2%
East Tennessee St. 14% 7% 11% 1%
Western Carolina 15% 8% 11% 1%
Samford 12% 7% 8%
Tennessee Tech 11% 7% 8% 1%
Mercer 8% 5% 5%
Wofford 7% 6% 5%
Chattanooga 4% 4% 2%
UNC Greensboro 4% 4% 3%
The Citadel 1% 1% 1%
VMI 2% 2% 1%