Sun Belt
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
James Madison 22%   15   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 +0.9 135 C+ +2 112 C- -1 198 -1 212 0 1
Old Dominion 20%   Negligible 3 - 0 0 - 0 -0.2 151 C -1 183 C +1 132 +8 62 0 1
Marshall 11%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -1.9 185 C- -2 210 C +0 165 -6 272 0 1
Troy 9%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -2.7 198 C- -2 227 C +0 171 -4 247 0 1
Appalachian St. 7%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -3.5 211 D+ -3 268 C +0 155 +7 73 0 1
Arkansas St. 5%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -3.6 212 D+ -3 251 C -1 180 -5 262 0 1
South Alabama 6%   Negligible 2 - 2 0 - 0 -3.8 219 C +0 169 D+ -4 295 -1 208 0 1
Georgia St. 6%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -3.9 221 C -1 179 D+ -3 280 -14 339 0 1
Southern Miss 5%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -4.8 246 D+ -3 266 C- -1 210 +5 116 0 1
Louisiana 4%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -5.2 253 D+ -4 282 C- -1 193 -16 347 0 1
Louisiana Tech 2%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -5.8 263 D+ -4 287 C- -1 216 +7 76 0 1
Coastal Carolina 2%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -5.9 265 D+ -4 280 C- -2 237 -10 316 0 1
Georgia Southern 1%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -7.8 295 D -5 291 D+ -3 288 -8 293 0 1
Louisiana Monroe 1%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -9.5 322 D+ -4 285 D- -5 335 -14 340 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 9 185 Marshall 74 44 Ohio St. 84   
211 Appalachian St. 53 25 Auburn 75   
27 LSU 90 263 Louisiana Tech 50   
20 Texas A&M 108 322 Louisiana Monroe 67   
265 Coastal Carolina 65 348 South Carolina Upstate 56   
Tue, Nov 10 51 TCU 100 322 Louisiana Monroe 92   
219 South Alabama 69 85 Central Florida 76   
169 Loyola Marymount 69 198 Troy 74   
189 Fresno St. 95 221 Georgia St. 92   
212 Arkansas St. 65 238 Tennessee Martin 82   
295 Georgia Southern 91 217 Mercer 97   
Wed, Nov 11 252 Delaware 61 135 James Madison 71   
334 Norfolk St. 60 151 Old Dominion 71   
289 Jackson St. 80 246 Southern Miss 84   
Thu, Nov 12 169 Loyola Marymount 72 219 South Alabama 79   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 13 49 North Carolina St. 81 198 Troy 64 94%   
62 Arizona St. 90 322 Louisiana Monroe 67 97%   
295 Georgia Southern 70 85 Central Florida 88 94%   
211 Appalachian St. 58 123 Charlotte 67 80%   
246 Southern Miss 67 116 Texas St. 78 85%   
Sat, Nov 14 42 Grand Canyon 94 322 Louisiana Monroe 69 98%   
111 North Texas 71 219 South Alabama 61 84%   
233 Longwood 65 151 Old Dominion 72 75%   
185 Marshall 78 248 Youngstown St. 79 50%   
263 Louisiana Tech 65 285 Nicholls St. 67 56%   
Sun, Nov 15 265 Coastal Carolina 61 52 Wisconsin 82 96%   
135 James Madison 74 305 Mercyhurst 61 88%   
221 Georgia St. 79 334 Norfolk St. 69 82%   
Tue, Nov 17 151 Old Dominion 59 8 Virginia 81 97%   
145 East Tennessee St. 69 185 Marshall 70 54%   
215 Cal St. Northridge 71 198 Troy 75 65%   
246 Southern Miss 74 209 Texas Arlington 73 56%   
213 Jacksonville St. 63 263 Louisiana Tech 64 53%   
295 Georgia Southern 70 184 Middle Tennessee 73 61%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
James Madison 4 29% 18% 7% 3% 29 18 12 10 8 6 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 0
Old Dominion 4 26% 17% 7% 3% 26 17 13 10 8 6 6 3 4 3 2 1 1 0
Marshall 5 14% 8% 5% 2% 14 11 11 10 10 8 8 6 5 4 5 3 2 2
Troy 6 12% 7% 4% 2% 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 7 5 4 3 3 2
South Alabama 6 8% 5% 2% 1% 8 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 2
Arkansas St. 7 8% 4% 2% 1% 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 7 5 5 4 3
Appalachian St. 7 8% 4% 3% 2% 8 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 3
Southern Miss 7 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 8 7 9 8 9 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 4
Georgia St. 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 7 6 6 4
Louisiana 8 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 6 7 7 8 8 7 8 9 9 7 7 7 5
Louisiana Tech 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 7
Coastal Carolina 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 5 5 6 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 8 8
Louisiana Monroe 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 7 9 10 11 12 14 15
Georgia Southern 10 1% 0% 1% 0% 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 8 8 10 13 16 18

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
James Madison 12 - 6 18 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 12 14 15 15 11 7 4 1 0
Old Dominion 11 - 7 18 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 13 14 15 13 11 6 4 1 0
Marshall 10 - 8 15 - 13 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 9 14 14 15 11 9 5 3 1 0 0
Troy 10 - 8 14 - 14 0 1 1 4 4 8 11 13 15 14 11 9 5 3 1 0 0
South Alabama 9 - 9 15 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 10 6 4 2 1 0
Arkansas St. 9 - 9 15 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 13 15 14 12 9 6 3 1 1 0
Appalachian St. 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 1 3 6 8 10 12 13 14 11 9 7 3 1 0 0 0
Southern Miss 9 - 9 14 - 16 0 0 1 1 3 6 9 11 12 14 13 11 8 6 3 1 0 0
Georgia St. 9 - 9 13 - 16 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 15 14 12 11 8 5 3 1 0
Louisiana 9 - 9 10 - 17 0 1 2 4 7 9 14 14 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Louisiana Tech 8 - 10 13 - 16 0 1 3 5 9 12 14 14 13 10 9 5 3 1 1 0 0
Coastal Carolina 8 - 10 12 - 17 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 14 15 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Louisiana Monroe 7 - 11 8 - 21 0 1 3 6 10 13 16 16 13 9 7 3 2 0 0 0
Georgia Southern 6 - 12 10 - 20 0 1 4 8 12 14 14 14 11 8 6 3 2 1 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
James Madison 22% 22% 0% 15 Negligible 3 9 9 1 78
Old Dominion 20% 20% 0% Negligible 3 8 8 80
Marshall 11% 11% 0% Negligible 1 3 6 1 89
Troy 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 2 6 1 91
Appalachian St. 7% 7% 0% Negligible 2 4 1 93
Arkansas St. 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 95
South Alabama 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 4 1 94
Georgia St. 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 4 1 94
Southern Miss 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 95
Louisiana 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 96
Louisiana Tech 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 98
Coastal Carolina 2% 2% 0% Negligible 2 1 98
Georgia Southern 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 99
Louisiana Monroe 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 79% 0.8 21 79
2nd Round 6% 0.1 94 6
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
James Madison 22% 5% 20% 2%
Old Dominion 20% 4% 17% 2%
Marshall 11% 5% 8% 1%
Troy 9% 5% 7% 1%
Appalachian St. 7% 3% 5%
Arkansas St. 5% 3% 4%
South Alabama 6% 3% 4%
Georgia St. 6% 4% 4%
Southern Miss 5% 3% 4%
Louisiana 4% 3% 3%
Louisiana Tech 2% 2% 2%
Coastal Carolina 2% 2% 1%
Georgia Southern 1% 1%
Louisiana Monroe 1% 1%