Preseason Rankings
Sun Belt
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
James Madison 19%   15   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.1 151 C+ +1 130 C- -1 192 0 1 0 1
Troy 16%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.1 169 C -1 179 C +0 169 0 1 0 1
Arkansas St. 12%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.3 174 C -1 177 C -1 181 0 1 0 1
Louisiana 9%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.3 212 C- -3 250 C- -1 186 0 1 0 1
Old Dominion 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.4 216 C- -1 197 D+ -2 246 0 1 0 1
Georgia St. 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.7 224 C- -1 191 D+ -3 260 0 1 0 1
Southern Miss 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.5 238 D+ -3 257 C- -2 223 0 1 0 1
Marshall 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.5 240 C- -2 235 D+ -2 253 0 1 0 1
Coastal Carolina 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.9 247 D+ -3 251 D+ -2 249 0 1 0 1
Appalachian St. 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.2 256 D+ -4 284 C- -1 206 0 1 0 1
South Alabama 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.3 257 D+ -3 274 C- -2 227 0 1 0 1
Louisiana Tech 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.5 279 D -5 321 C- -1 197 0 1 0 1
Georgia Southern 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -8.7 314 D -4 302 D -4 321 0 1 0 1
Louisiana Monroe 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -11.0 342 D -5 328 D- -6 347 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 151 James Madison 73 106 Miami (OH) 74 53%   
Mon, Nov 2 101 Akron 71 212 Louisiana 66 69%   
Mon, Nov 2 174 Arkansas St. 78 150 Toledo 77 56%   
Mon, Nov 2 162 Massachusetts 69 169 Troy 72 60%   
Mon, Nov 2 216 Old Dominion 77 165 Western Michigan 76 52%   
Mon, Nov 2 128 Kent St. 71 279 Louisiana Tech 65 70%   
Mon, Nov 2 186 Bowling Green 73 224 Georgia St. 74 55%   
Mon, Nov 2 160 Ohio 72 257 South Alabama 70 57%   
Mon, Nov 2 256 Appalachian St. 59 168 Merrimack 63 66%   
Mon, Nov 2 197 Buffalo 72 240 Marshall 73 53%   
Mon, Nov 2 247 Coastal Carolina 70 187 Eastern Michigan 69 50%   
Mon, Nov 2 226 Ball St. 71 314 Georgia Southern 69 57%   
Mon, Nov 2 260 Central Michigan 75 342 Louisiana Monroe 72 60%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
James Madison 4 28% 18% 6% 3% 28 18 13 9 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 1 1 0
Troy 5 20% 12% 5% 3% 20 15 12 11 9 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 0
Arkansas St. 5 18% 11% 5% 3% 18 15 11 9 9 9 7 6 5 3 3 2 1 1
Old Dominion 6 12% 6% 3% 3% 12 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 3 2
Louisiana 6 12% 6% 3% 2% 12 11 9 9 10 8 7 8 6 6 5 4 3 3
Georgia St. 6 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 7 6 5 5 4 3
Southern Miss 7 8% 4% 2% 1% 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 6 6 6 4 3
Coastal Carolina 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 8 6 6 4
Appalachian St. 7 6% 3% 1% 1% 6 6 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5
Marshall 8 4% 2% 2% 1% 4 6 7 6 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 9 6 5
South Alabama 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 6 6 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 5
Louisiana Tech 8 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 5 5 7 7 6 8 8 9 8 7 10 9 7
Georgia Southern 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 3 3 4 4 5 7 8 8 11 14 15 17
Louisiana Monroe 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 1 2 4 4 5 7 8 9 11 15 15 17

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
James Madison 11 - 7 18 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 8 9 11 13 15 13 11 7 4 1 0
Troy 11 - 7 16 - 12 0 0 0 1 1 4 5 8 11 13 16 13 11 8 5 2 1 0
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 17 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 15 14 10 7 4 2 0 0
Old Dominion 10 - 8 15 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 13 13 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
Louisiana 10 - 8 13 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 10 12 13 14 13 10 7 4 3 1 0
Georgia St. 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 9 13 13 14 11 10 7 4 2 1 0
Southern Miss 9 - 9 13 - 16 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 14 14 12 11 9 5 3 1 1 0 0
Coastal Carolina 9 - 9 13 - 16 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 13 13 14 11 11 7 5 3 1 0 0
Appalachian St. 8 - 10 12 - 17 0 0 1 2 5 7 10 12 13 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Marshall 8 - 9 13 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 14 14 14 12 8 7 4 2 1 0 0
South Alabama 8 - 9 13 - 15 0 0 1 2 5 7 10 14 14 14 12 9 6 4 1 1 0 0
Louisiana Tech 8 - 10 12 - 17 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 13 13 12 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0
Georgia Southern 6 - 12 10 - 20 0 1 4 8 11 14 16 14 12 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Louisiana Monroe 6 - 12 8 - 21 0 1 3 9 11 15 17 14 12 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
James Madison 19% 19% 0% 15 Negligible 3 7 8 1 81
Troy 16% 16% 0% Negligible 2 5 7 1 84
Arkansas St. 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 4 6 1 88
Louisiana 9% 9% 0% Negligible 2 5 2 91
Old Dominion 8% 8% 0% Negligible 0 2 4 1 92
Georgia St. 7% 7% 0% Negligible 0 1 4 2 93
Southern Miss 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 4 1 93
Marshall 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 96
Coastal Carolina 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 96
Appalachian St. 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 96
South Alabama 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 96
Louisiana Tech 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 97
Georgia Southern 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 0 99
Louisiana Monroe 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 76% 0.8 24 76 0
2nd Round 7% 0.1 93 7
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
James Madison 19% 6% 16% 2%
Troy 16% 5% 13% 1%
Arkansas St. 12% 6% 9% 1%
Louisiana 9% 5% 7%
Old Dominion 8% 4% 6% 1%
Georgia St. 7% 5% 5%
Southern Miss 7% 4% 5%
Marshall 4% 2% 3%
Coastal Carolina 4% 3% 3%
Appalachian St. 4% 3% 3%
South Alabama 4% 3% 3%
Louisiana Tech 3% 2% 2%
Georgia Southern 1% 1% 1%
Louisiana Monroe 1% 1% 1%