Preseason Rankings
Big Ten
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Illinois 98%   1   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +21.4 3 A+ +13 1 A +8 13 0 1 0 1
Michigan St. 95%   3   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +18.7 8 A +9 14 A +9 7 0 1 0 1
Michigan 92%   3   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.2 15 A- +9 19 A +8 11 0 1 0 1
Nebraska 80%   7   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +15.4 23 A- +8 34 A- +7 18 0 1 0 1
UCLA 82%   5   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +15.2 24 A- +8 29 A- +7 23 0 1 0 1
Purdue 88%   5   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +14.9 25 A- +9 26 B+ +6 30 0 1 0 1
Ohio St. 76%   7   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +14.5 28 A- +8 28 B+ +6 32 0 1 0 1
Indiana 72%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.8 32 A- +8 36 B+ +6 37 0 1 0 1
USC 77%   7   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.7 33 B+ +7 43 A- +7 22 0 1 0 1
Maryland 64%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.6 41 B+ +7 42 B+ +6 40 0 1 0 1
Wisconsin 73%   7   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.6 42 B+ +7 39 B+ +6 42 0 1 0 1
Iowa 58%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.0 46 B+ +7 46 B+ +5 47 0 1 0 1
Oregon 45%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +10.0 57 B +6 53 B +4 69 0 1 0 1
Minnesota 37%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.8 59 B +5 69 B+ +5 50 0 1 0 1
Washington 29%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.7 74 B +5 68 B- +3 88 0 1 0 1
Rutgers 17%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.0 82 B- +4 71 B- +3 92 0 1 0 1
Northwestern 18%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.2 88 B- +4 83 B- +3 93 0 1 0 1
Penn St. 9%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.5 96 B- +4 72 C+ +1 118 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 5 Arizona 74 24 UCLA 69 67%   
Mon, Nov 2 9 Gonzaga 74 25 Purdue 70 62%   
Mon, Nov 2 26 BYU 76 28 Ohio St. 75 51%   
Mon, Nov 2 8 Michigan St. 84 234 Quinnipiac 58 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 15 Michigan 90 214 Oakland 67 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 339 Fairleigh Dickinson 50 3 Illinois 85 100%   
Mon, Nov 2 241 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 65 33 USC 86 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 255 Denver 66 42 Wisconsin 87 96%   
Mon, Nov 2 207 Montana 65 57 Oregon 81 93%   
Mon, Nov 2 320 Le Moyne 58 23 Nebraska 86 99%   
Mon, Nov 2 206 Colgate 65 74 Washington 78 90%   
Mon, Nov 2 340 Bucknell 56 41 Maryland 82 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 356 Eastern Illinois 53 32 Indiana 82 99%   
Mon, Nov 2 59 Minnesota 77 324 North Dakota 55 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 348 Binghamton 58 88 Northwestern 78 96%   
Mon, Nov 2 345 Canisius 61 96 Penn St. 80 96%   
Tue, Nov 3 46 Iowa 77 193 Lipscomb 60 94%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Illinois 4 31% 20% 8% 3% 31 18 14 9 7 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Michigan St. 5 19% 11% 5% 3% 19 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0
Michigan 6 15% 9% 4% 2% 15 13 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0
Purdue 6 12% 6% 4% 2% 12 11 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 1 1 0
UCLA 7 11% 6% 4% 2% 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1
Nebraska 7 8% 4% 3% 2% 8 9 8 9 9 8 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 2 2 1 1
Ohio St. 7 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 1
USC 7 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 2 2 0
Wisconsin 8 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 1
Indiana 8 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 1
Maryland 9 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 5 5 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2
Iowa 10 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 2
Oregon 11 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 3 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 7 9 7 7 7 4
Minnesota 12 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 6
Washington 12 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 9 8 10 11 10 8
Rutgers 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 5 6 7 8 10 10 12 12 14
Northwestern 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 8 9 13 15 16
Penn St. 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 20

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Illinois 14 - 6 23 - 9 0 0 1 2 3 6 7 11 15 17 15 11 7 4 1 0
Michigan St. 13 - 7 22 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 11 15 15 13 10 7 4 2 1 0
Michigan 12 - 8 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 1 2 5 7 10 14 14 14 12 9 6 3 1 0
Purdue 12 - 8 21 - 11 0 0 1 1 2 3 6 8 10 13 14 15 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
UCLA 12 - 8 21 - 10 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 7 8 12 14 13 12 11 7 5 2 0 0 0
Nebraska 11 - 9 21 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 10 13 15 14 14 9 6 3 1 1 0
Ohio St. 11 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 1 1 3 4 7 10 13 14 14 13 10 5 3 1 0 0
USC 11 - 9 21 - 11 0 0 1 1 4 6 9 10 13 13 12 13 9 5 3 1 0 0
Wisconsin 10 - 10 19 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 10 11 13 13 11 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Indiana 10 - 10 20 - 12 0 1 1 2 5 6 10 12 14 14 12 10 6 4 2 1 0 0
Maryland 10 - 10 18 - 12 0 0 0 1 1 4 5 9 10 13 14 13 10 8 5 3 2 0 0 0
Iowa 9 - 11 18 - 14 0 0 1 2 5 7 9 13 14 14 13 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Oregon 9 - 11 16 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 11 14 13 11 10 7 5 3 1 1 0 0
Minnesota 8 - 12 17 - 15 0 1 2 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Washington 8 - 12 14 - 15 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 13 13 12 9 6 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Rutgers 7 - 13 15 - 15 0 1 3 5 9 12 14 14 13 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Northwestern 7 - 13 15 - 17 0 2 4 6 12 13 14 12 11 9 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
Penn St. 6 - 14 15 - 16 0 2 5 8 12 14 15 13 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Illinois 98% 17% 97% 1 Likely In 26 20 14 11 8 6 4 2 2 3 1 2
Michigan St. 95% 13% 94% 3 Likely In 16 14 14 12 9 8 6 4 4 4 4 1 5
Michigan 92% 11% 91% 3 Likely In 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 5 5 4 5 8
Nebraska 80% 6% 78% 7 Bubble - In 4 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 6 8 10 1 20
UCLA 82% 9% 80% 5 Bubble - In 6 8 7 8 9 8 8 6 5 7 9 1 18
Purdue 88% 10% 87% 5 Likely In 10 11 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 12
Ohio St. 76% 6% 75% 7 Bubble - In 3 5 6 8 7 8 7 8 6 9 10 1 24
Indiana 72% 5% 70% 10 Bubble - In 2 3 4 5 7 7 6 7 7 9 12 1 28
USC 77% 6% 76% 7 Bubble - In 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 7 6 7 10 1 23
Maryland 64% 4% 63% 10 Bubble - In 2 2 3 5 6 6 6 7 5 9 12 2 36
Wisconsin 73% 6% 72% 7 Bubble - In 5 5 5 7 6 7 7 7 6 8 9 2 27
Iowa 58% 3% 56% 11 Bubble - In 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 5 6 10 12 2 42
Oregon 45% 2% 44% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 5 4 5 7 11 2 55
Minnesota 37% 1% 36% Bubble - Out 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 6 11 2 63
Washington 29% 1% 29% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 5 9 1 71
Rutgers 17% 1% 16% Likely Out 1 2 1 2 3 6 1 83
Northwestern 18% 0% 17% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 2 4 6 1 82
Penn St. 9% 0% 9% Likely Out 0 0 1 2 4 2 91

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 11.1 0 2 8 23 31 24 10 2
1st Round 100% 9.9 0 3 10 23 33 21 8 2 0
2nd Round 100% 6.7 0 0 1 5 14 24 27 20 8 2 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 100% 3.5 0 5 17 29 27 16 5 1 0 0
Elite Eight 90% 1.8 10 30 35 20 5 1 0
Final Four 66% 0.9 34 45 18 3 0
Final Game 40% 0.4 60 36 3
Champion 21% 0.2 79 21

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Illinois 98% 3% 96% 82% 50% 30% 17% 8% 4%
Michigan St. 95% 7% 92% 74% 45% 25% 14% 7% 3%
Michigan 92% 7% 89% 69% 39% 21% 11% 6% 3%
Nebraska 80% 16% 72% 48% 24% 12% 6% 3% 1%
UCLA 82% 14% 75% 54% 28% 15% 7% 3% 1%
Purdue 88% 10% 83% 61% 33% 18% 9% 5% 3%
Ohio St. 76% 17% 67% 43% 22% 11% 5% 3% 1%
Indiana 72% 20% 62% 37% 17% 7% 3% 1% 1%
USC 77% 15% 70% 46% 23% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Maryland 64% 20% 54% 32% 15% 8% 3% 1% 1%
Wisconsin 73% 15% 66% 43% 22% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Iowa 58% 19% 48% 27% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Oregon 45% 16% 36% 19% 8% 3% 1% 1%
Minnesota 37% 17% 28% 13% 5% 2% 1%
Washington 29% 12% 23% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Rutgers 17% 9% 12% 6% 2% 1%
Northwestern 18% 9% 13% 5% 2% 1%
Penn St. 9% 6% 6% 2% 1%