Preseason Rankings
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2026-27

Last Updated: Oct 30, 2026

View: Probabilistic Seeding

Seed Team Bid Type Opening Round At-Large Status Tournament Chances
Total Auto At-Large Bye
1 Duke Auto Likely In 99% 25% 99% 98%
1 Florida Auto Likely In 99% 20% 99% 98%
1 Illinois Auto Likely In 98% 17% 97% 97%
1 Connecticut Auto Likely In 96% 27% 94% 96%
2 Kansas At-Large Likely In 96% 16% 96% 95%
2 Houston Auto Likely In 96% 16% 95% 94%
2 Arizona At-Large Likely In 96% 15% 95% 94%
2 St. John's At-Large Likely In 93% 21% 92% 92%
3 Michigan St. At-Large Likely In 95% 13% 94% 93%
3 Louisville At-Large Likely In 93% 17% 92% 91%
3 Michigan At-Large Likely In 92% 11% 91% 92%
3 Alabama At-Large Likely In 92% 10% 91% 93%
4 Tennessee At-Large Likely In 92% 11% 91% 90%
4 Texas Tech At-Large Likely In 89% 14% 88% 88%
4 Virginia At-Large Likely In 91% 17% 90% 89%
4 Texas At-Large Likely In 91% 11% 89% 89%
5 Purdue At-Large Likely In 88% 10% 87% 88%
5 Gonzaga Auto Likely In 93% 43% 88% 91%
5 UCLA At-Large Bubble 82% 9% 80% 82%
5 Iowa St. At-Large Bubble 81% 7% 80% 79%
6 Kentucky At-Large Bubble 81% 7% 79% 81%
6 Vanderbilt At-Large Bubble 80% 7% 79% 78%
6 Arkansas At-Large Likely In 81% 6% 80% 79%
6 Villanova At-Large Bubble 79% 11% 77% 80%
7 USC At-Large Bubble 77% 6% 76% 81%
7 Nebraska At-Large Bubble 80% 6% 78% 80%
7 Wisconsin At-Large Bubble 73% 6% 72% 79%
7 Ohio St. At-Large Bubble 76% 6% 75% 78%
8 Texas A&M At-Large Bubble 76% 6% 75% 76%
8 BYU At-Large Bubble 76% 6% 74% 77%
8 Auburn At-Large Bubble 74% 5% 73% 76%
8 Miami (FL) At-Large Bubble 75% 9% 72% 75%
Seed Team Bid Type Opening Round At-Large Status Tournament Chances
Total Auto At-Large Bye
9 North Carolina At-Large Bubble 76% 7% 74% 77%
9 Missouri At-Large Bubble 67% 5% 66% 75%
9 Marquette At-Large Bubble 74% 8% 72% 74%
9 Oklahoma At-Large Bubble 70% 4% 69% 74%
10 Indiana At-Large Bubble 72% 5% 70% 73%
10 Cincinnati At-Large Bubble 69% 5% 67% 73%
10 Creighton At-Large ✓ Bubble 66% 7% 63% 74%
10 Providence At-Large ✓ Bubble 68% 10% 64% 74%
10 Baylor At-Large ✓ Bubble 65% 6% 63% 73%
10 Maryland At-Large ✓ Bubble 64% 4% 63% 69%
11 Iowa At-Large ✓ Bubble 58% 3% 56% 66%
11 LSU At-Large ✓ Bubble 62% 3% 61% 71%
11 Xavier At-Large ✓ Bubble 55% 6% 52% 68%
11 Georgia At-Large ✓ Bubble 58% 3% 57% 63%
11 West Virginia At-Large ✓ Bubble 54% 4% 52% 65%
11 Virginia Tech At-Large ✓ Bubble 54% 5% 52% 64%
11 TCU At-Large ✓ Bubble 53% 3% 52% 63%
11 Oklahoma St. At-Large ✓ Bubble 54% 3% 53% 66%
12 VCU Auto Bubble 47% 25% 29% 74%
12 Grand Canyon Auto Bubble 46% 29% 24% 80%
12 Wichita St. Auto Likely Out 31% 22% 11% 81%
12 Saint Mary's Auto Likely Out 35% 29% 9% 89%
13 UC San Diego Auto Likely Out 24% 23% 2% 96%
13 Illinois-Chicago Auto Likely Out 21% 20% 2% 94%
13 Miami (OH) Auto Likely Out 22% 20% 2% 94%
13 High Point Auto Likely Out 56% 55% 3% 96%
14 Western Kentucky Auto Likely Out 23% 22% 1% 92%
14 UNC Wilmington Auto Likely Out 28% 26% 2% 91%
14 McNeese St. Auto Likely Out 41% 41% 1% 92%
14 Penn Auto Negligible 24% 24% 0% 90%
15 Montana St. Auto Negligible 24% 24% 0% 77%
15 James Madison Auto Negligible 19% 19% 0% 70%
15 Wright St. Auto ✓ Negligible 22% 22% 0% 65%
15 Furman Auto ✓ Negligible 22% 22% 0% 67%
15 St. Thomas Auto ✓ Negligible 27% 27% 0% 58%
15 Queens Auto ✓ Negligible 27% 27% 37%
16 Merrimack Auto ✓ Negligible 23% 23% 35%
16 Tarleton St. Auto ✓ Negligible 20% 20% 33%
16 Tennessee St. Auto ✓ Negligible 38% 38% 29%
16 Vermont Auto ✓ Negligible 35% 35% 0% 24%
16 American Auto ✓ Negligible 25% 25% 20%
16 Bethune-Cookman Auto ✓ Negligible 27% 27% 20%
16 Howard Auto ✓ Negligible 52% 52% 17%
16 LIU Brooklyn Auto ✓ Negligible 33% 33% 6%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team At-Large Status Tournament Chances
At-Large Auto Total Bye
UCLA Bubble - In 80% 9% 82% 82%
Iowa St. Bubble - In 80% 7% 81% 79%
Kentucky Bubble - In 79% 7% 81% 81%
Vanderbilt Bubble - In 79% 7% 80% 78%
Villanova Bubble - In 77% 11% 79% 80%
Nebraska Bubble - In 78% 6% 80% 80%
USC Bubble - In 76% 6% 77% 81%
BYU Bubble - In 74% 6% 76% 77%
Texas A&M Bubble - In 75% 6% 76% 76%
Ohio St. Bubble - In 75% 6% 76% 78%
Wisconsin Bubble - In 72% 6% 73% 79%
North Carolina Bubble - In 74% 7% 76% 77%
Miami (FL) Bubble - In 72% 9% 75% 75%
Auburn Bubble - In 73% 5% 74% 76%
Marquette Bubble - In 72% 8% 74% 74%
Indiana Bubble - In 70% 5% 72% 73%
Oklahoma Bubble - In 69% 4% 70% 74%
Cincinnati Bubble - In 67% 5% 69% 73%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team At-Large Status Tournament Chances
At-Large Auto Total Bye
Mississippi Bubble - Out 48% 2% 49% 61%
Clemson Bubble - Out 47% 4% 49% 63%
North Carolina St. Bubble - Out 46% 3% 48% 59%
Central Florida Bubble - Out 44% 2% 46% 61%
Oregon Bubble - Out 44% 2% 45% 64%
SMU Bubble - Out 39% 2% 40% 54%
Minnesota Bubble - Out 36% 1% 37% 56%
Utah St. Bubble - Out 36% 17% 47% 70%
Stanford Bubble - Out 33% 2% 35% 55%
Florida St. Bubble - Out 30% 2% 32% 51%
Arizona St. Bubble - Out 30% 1% 31% 54%
Mississippi St. Bubble - Out 29% 1% 30% 54%
Washington Bubble - Out 29% 1% 29% 58%
Seton Hall Bubble - Out 27% 3% 29% 54%
DePaul Bubble - Out 27% 3% 29% 56%
Pittsburgh Bubble - Out 26% 2% 27% 56%
Georgetown Bubble - Out 24% 2% 26% 47%
Syracuse Bubble - Out 24% 2% 25% 46%
Saint Louis Bubble - Out 22% 23% 40% 74%
San Diego St. Bubble - Out 21% 12% 30% 66%
Colorado Bubble - Out 20% 1% 20% 50%
Notre Dame Likely Out 17% 1% 19% 41%
Northwestern Likely Out 17% 0% 18% 49%
Utah Likely Out 17% 1% 17% 42%
Rutgers Likely Out 16% 1% 17% 49%
Wake Forest Likely Out 15% 1% 16% 47%
Boise St. Likely Out 15% 10% 23% 66%
New Mexico Likely Out 13% 22% 32% 80%
California Likely Out 13% 1% 13% 41%
Team At-Large Status At-Large Auto Total Bye
Kansas St. Likely Out 13% 1% 13% 49%
Colorado St. Likely Out 12% 8% 19% 62%
South Carolina Likely Out 12% 0% 12% 43%
Butler Likely Out 12% 1% 13% 47%
Dayton Likely Out 11% 12% 22% 70%
Nevada Likely Out 9% 16% 24% 79%
Penn St. Likely Out 9% 0% 9% 36%
Santa Clara Likely Out 7% 28% 33% 89%
Memphis Likely Out 7% 15% 21% 80%
Oregon St. Likely Out 6% 5% 11% 64%
UNLV Likely Out 6% 14% 19% 82%
South Florida Likely Out 5% 13% 17% 84%
Georgia Tech Likely Out 4% 0% 4% 34%
George Washington Likely Out 4% 7% 11% 78%
Boston College Likely Out 3% 0% 3% 42%
Tulsa Likely Out 3% 13% 16% 89%
George Mason Likely Out 3% 5% 8% 76%
Wyoming Likely Out 2% 8% 10% 85%
UC Santa Barbara Likely Out 2% 21% 23% 93%
Murray St. Likely Out 2% 18% 19% 93%
Texas St. Likely Out 2% 3% 4% 72%
Illinois St. Likely Out 1% 14% 15% 93%
Temple Likely Out 1% 7% 8% 90%
Washington St. Likely Out 1% 2% 3% 64%
Akron Likely Out 1% 19% 20% 93%
Florida Atlantic Likely Out 1% 7% 8% 85%
UAB Likely Out 1% 6% 7% 82%
North Texas Likely Out 1% 7% 8% 88%
Rhode Island Likely Out 1% 4% 5% 84%
Davidson Likely Out 1% 3% 4% 82%
Team At-Large Status At-Large Auto Total Bye
Richmond Likely Out 1% 4% 5% 83%
UC Irvine Likely Out 1% 18% 19% 96%
Fordham Likely Out 1% 3% 4% 81%
Saint Joseph's Likely Out 1% 4% 5% 89%
Belmont Likely Out 1% 10% 11% 93%
Drake Likely Out 1% 9% 9% 89%
Seattle Likely Out 1% 9% 10% 94%
Kent St. Likely Out 1% 12% 12% 90%