Preseason Rankings
Big West
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
UC Santa Barbara 23%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.3 104 B- +3 92 C+ +1 117 0 1 0 1
UC San Diego 24%   13   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.2 105 C+ +2 116 B- +2 95 0 1 0 1
UC Irvine 19%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.2 111 C- -2 209 B +5 56 0 1 0 1
Utah Valley 18%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.3 119 C +0 151 B- +2 98 0 1 0 1
Cal Poly 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.4 176 C +1 141 C- -2 238 0 1 0 1
Sacramento St. 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.8 184 C +0 159 C- -2 220 0 1 0 1
Cal St. Northridge 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.4 217 C- -2 236 C- -1 204 0 1 0 1
California Baptist 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.5 219 D+ -3 259 C -1 179 0 1 0 1
Cal St. Fullerton 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.6 222 C- -2 246 C- -1 199 0 1 0 1
UC Riverside 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.3 236 C- -2 241 C- -2 236 0 1 0 1
Long Beach St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.0 273 D+ -3 252 D+ -3 286 0 1 0 1
Cal St. Bakersfield 0%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.6 294 D+ -4 278 D -4 306 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 273 Long Beach St. 64 87 Utah 79 92%   
Tue, Nov 3 222 Cal St. Fullerton 70 72 San Diego St. 84 91%   
Tue, Nov 3 219 California Baptist 78 321 North Florida 69 80%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
UC San Diego 3 32% 23% 7% 2% 32 22 14 11 7 5 4 3 1 1 0 0
UC Santa Barbara 3 29% 20% 7% 2% 29 21 16 12 7 5 5 2 1 1 1 0
UC Irvine 3 24% 17% 6% 2% 24 21 17 12 9 7 4 3 2 1 1 0
Utah Valley 4 20% 14% 4% 1% 20 19 15 14 10 8 6 4 3 1 1 0
Cal Poly 6 5% 3% 1% 0% 5 8 9 12 13 11 11 10 7 7 5 3
Sacramento St. 6 5% 3% 1% 1% 5 8 9 10 12 11 11 11 7 7 6 4
Cal St. Fullerton 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 7 9 11 12 11 12 11 8 8
Cal St. Northridge 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 7 9 10 11 11 12 12 9 6
California Baptist 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 7 8 10 11 12 12 10 11 7
UC Riverside 8 2% 1% 0% 0% 2 3 5 6 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 9
Long Beach St. 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 2 5 6 7 10 11 12 15 16 13
Cal St. Bakersfield 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 3 5 7 9 12 15 19 29

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
UC San Diego 15 - 7 19 - 10 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 7 9 12 13 13 12 9 6 3 1 0
UC Santa Barbara 15 - 7 20 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 4 6 8 10 12 12 13 10 8 6 3 1 0
UC Irvine 14 - 8 19 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 2 5 7 9 11 13 14 11 10 8 5 2 1 0
Utah Valley 14 - 8 17 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 12 12 11 8 6 4 2 1 0
Cal Poly 11 - 11 14 - 16 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 10 11 12 11 10 9 6 4 3 2 1 0
Sacramento St. 11 - 11 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 3 5 6 8 11 11 11 11 10 7 6 3 2 1 1 0
Cal St. Fullerton 10 - 12 12 - 18 0 0 1 1 3 4 8 10 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 13 13 - 17 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 10 12 12 12 10 9 7 4 3 1 1 1 0 0 0
California Baptist 9 - 13 14 - 18 0 0 2 3 5 8 11 12 12 12 8 9 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
UC Riverside 9 - 13 12 - 18 0 0 0 2 4 7 9 10 12 12 12 9 8 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Long Beach St. 8 - 14 11 - 21 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 13 13 12 9 8 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7 - 15 9 - 21 0 1 4 7 10 13 14 14 11 10 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
UC Santa Barbara 23% 21% 2% Likely Out 7 10 4 1 77
UC San Diego 24% 23% 2% 13 Likely Out 1 7 11 3 1 76
UC Irvine 19% 18% 1% Likely Out 1 5 8 3 1 81
Utah Valley 18% 18% 0% Negligible 5 8 4 1 82
Cal Poly 6% 6% 0% Negligible 0 2 2 1 94
Sacramento St. 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 2 2 1 95
Cal St. Northridge 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 98
California Baptist 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 1 98
Cal St. Fullerton 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 98
UC Riverside 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 98
Long Beach St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99
Cal St. Bakersfield 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 96 4
1st Round 97% 1.0 3 95 2
2nd Round 19% 0.2 81 19 0
Sweet Sixteen 6% 0.1 94 6 0
Elite Eight 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Santa Barbara 23% 2% 22% 5% 2%
UC San Diego 24% 1% 24% 5% 1%
UC Irvine 19% 1% 18% 4% 1%
Utah Valley 18% 1% 18% 3% 1%
Cal Poly 6% 1% 5% 1%
Sacramento St. 5% 1% 5% 1%
Cal St. Northridge 2% 1%
California Baptist 2% 2%
Cal St. Fullerton 2% 2%
UC Riverside 2% 2%
Long Beach St. 1% 1%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0%